Billy Horner
Well-known member
As Bear states, the rise in the number of new deaths reported may be explained in part by a suspected under-reporting of the figures for the past two days.
Seems to happen in Spain as well.As Bear states, the rise in the number of new deaths reported may be explained in part by a suspected under-reporting of the figures for the past two days.
Today's headline analysis:
• Number of new infections in 24-hour period falls to 3,634 the lowest in eight days
• 4-day average for new infections decreases by 4.6%, the second such fall in consecutive days
Test figures don't include Leeds or Manchester.
A question for you... How does Spain compare with Italy? I think our figures are higher. However I was wondering how much we are behind Italy (or in front of the UK) in terms of time?Today's headline analysis:
• Number of new infections in 24-hour period increases to 5,491, the highest in four days
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for new infections increases by 10.3%, having been negative for the past two days and decreased for three consecutive days
• Highest number of new deaths in 24-hour period (938), up from 786 yesterday
• 4-day average for new deaths grows by 9.0%, more than doubling since yesterday (4.2%)
• We continue to track above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 24 days.
• We remain approximately 14 days behind Italy’s numbers
A question for you... How does Spain compare with Italy? I think our figures are higher. However I was wondering how much we are behind Italy (or in front of the UK) in terms of time?
Is this an easy thing to say?
Ok. Ta. It is not really needed. It is just out of curiosity.I haven't updated yet with today's number from across Europe. However, as a general trend, Spain has seen by far the steepest rise on a 'days since 20th death basis' followed by the United Kingdom and Italy.
To illustrate that, the UK is on Day 24 since its 20th death and has a total of 7,097 deaths. Italy had 6,077 deaths by that point, whilst Spain had already experienced 10,348.
Spain's curve has noticeably flattened over the past few days. I gather from the news, however, that the numbers have risen again today, so I would need to see what impact that has had on the curve.
Some important notes on the above. As Bear states, the vast majority of the new deaths reported did not actually occur in the past 24 hours. 'Only' 135 of the reported deaths (in England) occured yesterday (that number will be revised upwards in the coming days), with most deaths happening on the previous day and the three days preceding. One death reported today actually occured on 4th March.
Some Prof said this is less important as they are modelling trends in which the daily fluctuations are smoothed, and from looking at previous reported figures compared to actuals that the delays are consistent & you can model what range the expected actual daily figure will be.
Also taking that all into account, it still isn't going to be an exact figure as all dead people aren't being tested & people hospitalised with Covid can die of other things.
What do you think? Are we levelling out as the ‘experts’ seem to be claiming at the 5pm updates and when do you think the deaths will peak?Today's headline analysis:
• Number of new infections in 24-hour period falls to 4,344 from 5,492 yesterday
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for new infections decreases by 8.3% in contrast to a 10.3% increase yesterday
• 881 new deaths in 24-hour period , slightly lower than yesterday (938)
• 4-day average for new deaths grows by 9.3%, up from 9.0% yesterday
• We have started to track further above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 25 days and have been tracking above Italy for the past 8 days.
• We are approximately 13.5 days behind Italy’s numbers (from 14 days behind yesterday).
Not sure where you get your data from for Spain. Is this sort of thing any good for you?
View attachment 1634
Based on 4 day moving averages.