The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

As of 9am on 5 April 2020, 195,524 people have been tested, of which 47,806 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 4 April 2020, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 4,932 have died.

12300 tests approx in last 24 hours.

Deaths increased by 14.3%. Down from 20% yesterday.

14% increase in new infections, up from 10% yesterday.
 
Its always very dangerous to try and analyse figures day-to-day, but it does seem that the rate of increase in deaths is slowing.
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
Its always very dangerous to try and analyse figures day-to-day, but it does seem that the rate of increase in deaths is slowing.
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Jonny, whilst I wish you were right, no they haven't . We have had a drop yesterday, but that is after days of consecutive increases. Also the rate of increase on a 4 day moving average isn't really slowing either. To be clear I am saving the figures daily and plotting my own graphs.
 
Laughing said:
I am saving the figures daily and plotting my own graphs.
Click to expand...
Ah, interesting. I think the more reliable measure is the daily rate of infections, rather than deaths, which aren't necessarily from the previous 24 hrs. But then the daily rate of infections will be influenced by the number of tests carried out and given the aspiration is 10,000 per month I can see things getting more and more difficult to interpret.
 
Laughing said:
Jonny, whilst I wish you were right, no they haven't . We have had a drop yesterday, but that is after days of consecutive increases. Also the rate of increase on a 4 day moving average isn't really slowing either. To be clear I am saving the figures daily and plotting my own graphs.
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Here are some graphs and charts from Spain (in Spanish). 4 day moving averages. Then calculate a daily increase rate (multiplying factor) where 1 means no increase. We were up at 4. Pretty steady downward curve since we started lock down. I think you are perhaps behind us in terms of timing of growth. Also, not sure what difference a weaker lock down will make on your figures in the future.

https://smreputationmetrics.wordpre...situacion-y-tendencia-tasa-de-multiplicacion/

Here is a Google translation of the stuff from today:

5 April 2020

Notable falls in cases and daily deaths. Today it is time to apply caution with the reading of the results due to the possible weekend effect, which leads to the delay in accounting and reporting of information. That could mainly affect data from new cases, whose official data could be somewhat below the real ones (and the correction is seen in the data communication on Tuesday).

Taking these caveats into account, let's go to the data.

6,023 new cases. It is the minimum since March 23. 7,026 cases yesterday. 130,759 cases in total. Strong push down of the multiplication rate, to 1.28.

674 died yesterday compared to 809 yesterday. The data may be influenced by the weekend effect, but hopefully little. We were already saying that the drop in new daily cases was going to carry over into a drop in daily deaths in the following 5-10 days. There are 12,418 deaths in total. Also sharp drop in the multiplication rate, which is already below 1.4, to 1.37

As we announced yesterday, we stopped giving information about the valuable evolution data in hospitalization and in the ICU, because the Autonomous Communities are following different accounting criteria, and it no longer allows comparing with previous data in the series, which is essential to calculate well and with sense the multiplication rates.
 
Laughing said:
Jonny, whilst I wish you were right, no they haven't . We have had a drop yesterday, but that is after days of consecutive increases. Also the rate of increase on a 4 day moving average isn't really slowing either. To be clear I am saving the figures daily and plotting my own graphs.
Click to expand...
That's at odds to Bill Horner's figures that he's putting up each day.
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
Ah, interesting. I think the more reliable measure is the daily rate of infections, rather than deaths, which aren't necessarily from the previous 24 hrs. But then the daily rate of infections will be influenced by the number of tests carried out and given the aspiration is 10,000 per month I can see things getting more and more difficult to interpret.
Click to expand...
You hit the nail on the head with the testing strategy effecting the infection rate. Not just the number of tests, but those being tested gives an artificially inflated rate of infection.
 
Today’s headline analysis:

• Highest number of new infections in 24-hour period (5,903), up from 3,735 yesterday
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for infections increases to 9.4% having previously fallen for four consecutive days
• New deaths in 24-hour period falls to 621, lowest number for four days
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for deaths falls for third day to 2.3% (from 14.9% yesterday)
• We continue to track above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 21 days.
• We are approximately 14 days behind Italy’s numbers (having been 15 days behind five days ago but 13.5 days behind yesterday)
 
Laughing said:
You hit the nail on the head with the testing strategy effecting the infection rate. Not just the number of tests, but those being tested gives an artificially inflated rate of infection.
Click to expand...
The overall percentage of positives has increased from 11% on 26 March to 24% today. Almost a half of yesterday's tests were positive.
 
A note of caution on the falling growth in the 4-day average for new deaths.

Italy and Spain have both experienced false dawns during this outbreak. I think you would probably expect to see an established trend in falling infection rates before that would eventually translate itself into falling death rates.
 
Billy Horner said:
A note of caution on the falling growth in the 4-day average for new deaths.

Italy and Spain have both experienced false dawns during this outbreak. I think you would probably expect to see an established trend in falling infection rates before that would eventually translate itself into falling death rates.
Click to expand...
That matches with my Spanish stats guy. This is what he was saying today "We were already saying that the drop in new daily cases was going to carry over into a drop in daily deaths in the following 5-10 days."
 
As of 9am on 6 April 2020, 208837 people have been tested, of which 51,608 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 5 April 2020, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 5,373 have died.

13313 tests approx in last 24 hours.

8.9% increase in deaths but weekend dip believed to be due to underreporting.

7.9% increase in new infections.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• Number of new infections in 24-hour period falls to approx. same number as two days ago (3,802), having increased to 5,903 yesterday
• 4-day average for new infections decreases by 2.4%, the first such fall for 15 days
• New deaths in 24-hour period falls to 439, the lowest number in seven days
• 4-day average for new deaths decreases by 5.0%, the first such fall in 25 days
• We continue to track above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 22 days.
• We are approximately 14 days behind Italy’s numbers (having been 15 days behind six days ago but 13.5 days two days ago)
 
As Bear has suggested, whilst this is all broadly positive news, the health warning is that the number of new deaths reported has been markedly lower on the past three Sunday/Mondays. This does give rise to suspicion of an administrative reason for lower numbers on these days.
 
As of 9am 7 April, 266,694 tests have concluded, with 14,006 tests on 6 April.

213,181 people have been tested of which 55,242 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 6 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 6,159 have sadly died.

Tests up from 13313 yesterday.

Larger increase in deaths but that's due to underreporting on Sun/Mon.

About 3800 new infections. Just over 7% increase. That's going the right way.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• Number of new infections in 24-hour period falls to 3,634 the lowest in eight days
• 4-day average for new infections decreases by 4.6%, the second such fall in consecutive days
• Highest number of new deaths in 24-hour period (786), up from 439 yesterday
• 4-day average for new deaths grows by 4.2%, having decreased by 5.0% yesterday
• We continue to track above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 23 days.
• We remain approximately 14 days behind Italy’s numbers
 
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