The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

[Billy Horner]

Billy, when looking at Italys dying it was awful watching that poor country suffer so much, are you now saying we are in a worse position, stats wise, god help us

Hi Erimus. There are different ways of tracking the numbers, but they all say broadly the same thing.

I use days since 20th death as my primary measure, as it gives time for the virus to reach a level of establishment in a country whilst also giving a decent length of time to track numbers. I’ve noticed Sky have been using days since 100th death.

Pretty much from the start of my trajectory, we have very closely followed Italy’s experience and have now broadly done so for 19 days. Spain, for example, have tracked well above those figures, whilst France is below (but narrowing).

In the past few days, we have seen a noticeable acceleration above Italy’s figures at the same point in time. However, in terms of ‘best fit’ we are still closer to Italy’s trajectory than anyone else (but now slightly above).

Of course, these are projections and our future is not bound to follow the experience of others. But, in answer to your question, yes as things stand we look like we will endure a similar (or slightly higher) experience as Italy.

 

[Randy]

Isn't this part of the problem though? Lots of different people, companies, experts etc using their own models to predict and track makes everything very confusing.

 

[Billy Horner]

Isn't this part of the problem though? Lots of different people, companies, experts etc using their own models to predict and track makes everything very confusing.

Like I say, there are different ways of tracking it (and done by different people) but they will all say broadly the same thing. I do think the media has done a less than great job of communicating this though, but I think there is limited knowledge of statistics.

The most frustrating thing is how obvious it has been for a long time that we have been tracking Italy’s numbers. I think that the media has done a really poor job of getting this across to the British public and preparing them for what is likely to come (or holding the Government to account on this).

 

[Laughing]

Like I say, there are different ways of tracking it (and done by different people) but they will all say broadly the same thing. I do think the media has done a less than great job of communicating this though, but I think there is limited knowledge of statistics.

The most frustrating thing is how obvious it has been for a long time that we have been tracking Italy’s numbers. I think that the media has done a really poor job of getting this across to the British public and preparing them for what is likely to come (or holding the Government to account on this).

Billy I would add an "actual" to your analysis. By this time Italy's health service was starting to creak which had a direct implication on their ability to cope with the number of ill folks.

Our NHS has not started to go above capacity yet. If it does we will "probably" start to track way above Italy.

Actuals are, obviously, way more open to interpretation than even statistics, they tend to be ifs and buts, but how well our NHS cope will clearly have an impact on the eventual cost of the virus.

Let's hope social distancing starts to flatten the curve and quickly

 

[Erimus74]

Erimus, it will get much worse yet I fear. Probably up to 1,000 a day by this time next week, I am hoping we can limit to the 7 or 800 per day that Spain and Italy are/were showing. My son has been taken into hospital today with a positive test. So, obviously, hoping he recovers fully and quickly.[/QUOTE

Billy I would add an "actual" to your analysis. By this time Italy's health service was starting to creak which had a direct implication on their ability to cope with the number of ill folks.

Our NHS has not started to go above capacity yet. If it does we will "probably" start to track way above Italy.

Actuals are, obviously, way more open to interpretation than even statistics, they tend to be ifs and buts, but how well our NHS cope will clearly have an impact on the eventual cost of the virus.

Let's hope social distancing starts to flatten the curve and quickly

Laughing, I don't mean to be nosy, so apologies if so, did you hear from your son

 

[Laughing]

I did Erimus he is likely to be released in the next day or 2, Monday they think at the latest. His breathing is regulated now but he will still have to isolate for another 10 days, as will his wife and kids, no going out at all.

Thanks for asking Erimus.

 

[Erimus74]

I did Erimus he is likely to be released in the next day or 2, Monday they think at the latest. His breathing is regulated now but he will still have to isolate for another 10 days, as will his wife and kids, no going out at all.

Thanks for asking Erimus.

Thanks for that so pleased for you

 

[Laughing]

Thanks for that so pleased for you

Me too Erimus, it doesn't half give you some personal perspective though. Interestingly enough they suspected secondary pnuemonia based on an x-ray, brought on by the virus attacking his lungs. Turned out not to be the case thankfully.

 

[Billy Horner]

Me too Erimus, it doesn't half give you some personal perspective though. Interestingly enough they suspected secondary pnuemonia based on an x-ray, brought on by the virus attacking his lungs. Turned out not to be the case thankfully.

Really pleased to hear your positive news.

 

[spanishman]

I did Erimus he is likely to be released in the next day or 2, Monday they think at the latest. His breathing is regulated now but he will still have to isolate for another 10 days, as will his wife and kids, no going out at all.

Thanks for asking Erimus.

Glad to hear that.

 

[ABHBORO]

It will be interesting to see what happens in Sweden.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...r-strategy-for-dealing-with-covid-19-11968101

 

[bear66]

It will be interesting to see what happens in Sweden.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...r-strategy-for-dealing-with-covid-19-11968101

And Slovenia who acted quicker than any country in Europe after being their first case. Iceland doing well as well. One was quick lockdown, the other test, test, test.

Slovenia doing quite well so far.

 

[bear66]

As of 9am on 4 April 2020, 183,190 people have been tested, of which 41,903 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 3 April 2020, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 4,313 have died.

9406 tests in last 24 hours.

Deaths increased by 20%. Down from 23% yesterday but these numbers are apparently wildly out.

3735 new cases which is below 10% increase so best news of the day.

 

[bear66]

Anomalies in counting Covid-19 deaths

I was surprised that the numbers are so unreliable.

 

[Billy Horner]

Today’s headline analysis:

• 3,735 new infections in 24-hour period, the lowest number for five days
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for infections falls for fourth day to 4.5%
• Highest number of new deaths in 24-hour period (708)
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for deaths falls to 14.9% (from 29.8% yesterday)
• We continue to track above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 20 days.
• We are approximately 13.5 days behind Italy’s numbers (having been 15 days behind four days ago)

 

[Billy Horner]

Anomalies in counting Covid-19 deaths

I was surprised that the numbers are so unreliable.

Interesting article and I wasn't aware of that myself. I suppose that, as long as this has been an issue from the outset, then it still gives a basis for comparing the published numbers on a daily basis, but agree that it hampers the ability to truly understand the gradient of the curve.

The bigger problem might be when trying to compare the shape of our curve to those of other countries, as we don't know the basis upon which their numbers have been reported. I have noticed, for example, that Spain tends to publish a death toll for the previous day which is then revised upwards (usually by around 50%) later in the day.

 

[bear66]

Interesting article and I wasn't aware of that myself. I suppose that, as long as this has been an issue from the outset, then it still gives a basis for comparing the published numbers on a daily basis, but agree that it hampers the ability to truly understand the gradient of the curve.

The bigger problem might be when trying to compare the shape of our curve to those of other countries, as we don't know the basis upon which their numbers have been reported. I have noticed, for example, that Spain tends to publish a death toll for the previous day which is then revised upwards (usually by around 50%) later in the day.

The thing that might have some validity for us is new infections, as we are only measuring the more severe cases of people presented to hospital. Even these numbers will have less validity as more NHS staff are tested with possibly 'minor' symptoms.

 

[Randy]

Tests only available for NHS workers, those who have it and the few private people who could afford one.
Numbers being reported are let's be honest lopsided to look worse than they probably are.
Yes it's a dangerous virus, yes a lockdown is the best thing to do to spread the rate of hospital admissions out, the news reporting these death figures every day without any disclaimer is wrong and causes more anxiety and trouble than anything else.

 

[bear66]

Tests only available for NHS workers, those who have it and the few private people who could afford one.
Numbers being reported are let's be honest lopsided to look worse than they probably are.
Yes it's a dangerous virus, yes a lockdown is the best thing to do to spread the rate of hospital admissions out, the news reporting these death figures every day without any disclaimer is wrong and causes more anxiety and trouble than anything else.

The only disclaimer is that they are an underestimate. The tests do not include private tests and based on a falling number of tests yesterday, there haven't been many NHS tests.

 

[kuepper]

Now more daily deaths in UK than in Italy, the herd immunity cull continues....