The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

[Malaguena]

Cancer wards are closing and staff being moved to Coronavirus wards in the next 14 days, NO suspected cancer patients will be referred to hospital whilst the pandemic is ongoing, I don’t know what the situation is in other countries but it does sound as though Covid-19 treatment is being prioritised over other critical care. As of today JCU has 104 beds to treat Covid-19 sufferers and 96 are occupied, any death rate will not include those who pass away of other illnesses that may not have had treatment been available, and still people aren’t taking it as seriously as they should, I have seen people I know don’t live together for regular walks, boyfriends and girlfriends sleeping over it is insanity.

I’m not talking worst case scenarios or what might happen, this is what is going to happen, please redouble your efforts to stay safe, remain isolated and try to get through the other side of this extraordinary situation.

This - "I’m not talking worst case scenarios or what might happen, this is what is going to happen, please redouble your efforts to stay safe, remain isolated and try to get through the other side of this extraordinary situation."

I know Spanishman and I keep banging on about this, but you're not even in a proper lockdown like we are, and that is down to the government still fannying around and not imposing it

 

[Laughing]

Jesus! The last two days’ figures have been truly awful.

I had some misplaced optimism at the weekend that maybe, just maybe, we would escape the very worst of this and not suffer the fates of Italy and Spain. That optimism has well and truly evaporated.

Billy I noticed that when we had the sudden leap to 200 deaths per day from the mid 50's it stayed there until the jump 2 days ago, now that seems the new norm, at least for the minute. Really unfortunate.

 

[spanishman]

This - "I’m not talking worst case scenarios or what might happen, this is what is going to happen, please redouble your efforts to stay safe, remain isolated and try to get through the other side of this extraordinary situation."

I know Spanishman and I keep banging on about this, but you're not even in a proper lockdown like we are, and that is down to the government still fannying around and not imposing it

Ours was already tighter than the UK. Then it was made even tighter for another 10-11 days from Monday this week.

I am not sure. However I think I read somewhere that after that period we may be lucky. We may be over the worst and be able to start loosening it slowly. I guess we will have to wait and see.

 

[bear66]

Can you summarise the differences with the UK?

 

[spanishman]

Can you summarise the differences with the UK?

I will give it a go.

1. We are not encouraged to leave the house every day to do exercise. We are supposed to stay in unless there is something really important to do.

2. Our local police are insisting that people shop locally in our small town first. We only have two supermarkets - a Mercadona that is pretty big. Plus a small Coviran. You are not allowed to go 10 minutes away up to our large Carrefour without having something important you need to buy (gloves, alcohol for cleaning hands etc.).

3. There has been a big push for people to work at home. In both essential services and non-essential services. To reduce the number of people on the road.

4. All non-essential work requiring travel to work has stopped completely since Monday. So almost all construction sites are now closed (for example).

5. You can only have more than one person in a car under specific circumstances.

6. There are many road blocks. With police checking what reasons people have for travelling.

7. There have been many warnings and "on the spot" fines by the police when people breach the lock down.

Probably more. This is just what I can think of off the top of my head. I am hoping some of my Spanish friends on here can add more info if they spot I have missed anything.

UPDATED:

Not about the strength of the lock down - Another related subject is the amount of support the government and individual businesses are putting in place to help people. A lot.

 

[bear66]

Thanks. So no exercise, more businesses shut and one person per car is quite a big difference.

 

[spanishman]

Thanks. So no exercise, more businesses shut and one person per car is quite a big difference.

Yep. Plus the authorities are enforcing it.

 

[Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants]

Hospital admissions in London on the rise rapidly

 

[Billy Horner]

Hospital admissions in London on the rise rapidly

Thanks Jonny. Really interesting graph that one, particularly as it shows the region experiencing the greatest pressure (London) is also the one seeing the highest daily growth.

This is the data that the Government was using yesterday to claim we could see “green shoots”. I honestly don’t know why they spout this nonsense, it’s not as if we can’t see what’s actually happening ourselves.

 

[go-nads!]

London is also the place with the highest level of failures to practice social distancing, using public transport and working in close proximity.

until the government gets a grip of London, lock down for the rest of the country will continue.

areas outside of London, particularly areas like Teesside have relatively low cases, the measures in place now should halt the spread in the majority of places or at least allow the NHS to operate.
London is just going to continue to spike. My biggest concern is people travelling out of the London epicentre and infecting the provinces.

the government has acted too slow in the first instance which has affected London the most, the government cannot not allow the London spread to affect the rest of us.

 

[bear66]

I've just checked London versus Redcar & Cleveland. The London infection rate is three times that of R&C.

 

[spanishman]

London is also the place with the highest level of failures to practice social distancing, using public transport and working in close proximity.

until the government gets a grip of London, lock down for the rest of the country will continue.

areas outside of London, particularly areas like Teesside have relatively low cases, the measures in place now should halt the spread in the majority of places or at least allow the NHS to operate.
London is just going to continue to spike. My biggest concern is people travelling out of the London epicentre and infecting the provinces.

the government has acted too slow in the first instance which has affected London the most, the government cannot not allow the London spread to affect the rest of us.

I think there are a couple of issues with this.

1. The UK does not seem to be keeping people in the same place. I do not think there are many police road blocks checking what people are doing. So people who have the infection can knowingly or unknowning infect a new area of the country.

2. The lock down in the UK is not as strong as in Spain and Italy. So things like daily exercise outdoors could mean that the virus spreads more. Plus people are still travelling to work for non-essential businesses in the UK.

So there are more ways for one person to infect others in the UK. Compared with Italy and Spain.

In places other than London and Birmingham as well as your centres of high infection.

 

[Malaguena]

I will give it a go.

1. We are not encouraged to leave the house every day to do exercise. We are supposed to stay in unless there is something really important to do.

2. Our local police are insisting that people shop locally in our small town first. We only have two supermarkets - a Mercadona that is pretty big. Plus a small Coviran. You are not allowed to go 10 minutes away up to our large Carrefour without having something important you need to buy (gloves, alcohol for cleaning hands etc.).

3. There has been a big push for people to work at home. In both essential services and non-essential services. To reduce the number of people on the road.

4. All non-essential work requiring travel to work has stopped completely since Monday. So almost all construction sites are now closed (for example).

5. You can only have more than one person in a car under specific circumstances.

6. There are many road blocks. With police checking what reasons people have for travelling.

7. There have been many warnings and "on the spot" fines by the police when people breach the lock down.

Probably more. This is just what I can think of off the top of my head. I am hoping some of my Spanish friends on here can add more info if they spot I have missed anything.

UPDATED:

Not about the strength of the lock down - Another related subject is the amount of support the government and individual businesses are putting in place to help people. A lot.

Not much to add to that ....

a) I'd strengthen point 1 - it's not that we're "supposed" to stay in, we're "instructed" to stay in

b) if you get stopped by the police, you have to have actual evidence of why you're out - a shopping list (I've heard of these lists being challenged if the police don't think they are "essential" items but have no direct experience), a shop receipt, a doctors appointment card, a prescription, a key worker certificate from your employer etc etc

I'd also add that there isn't any complaints about police being heavy handed, everyone accepts that these restrictions need to be in place, and there's no real moaning about it. (Also, I haven't heard of any instances of people coughing or spitting on other people !)

Finally, from the start, the government have been very open, clear, and consistent with their communications, and have given the rationale behind their actions.

 

[go-nads!]

I agree. But the whole point of lockdown was to slow down the spread so that services were not overwhelmed and in the hope that deaths can be minimised whilst a vaccine is sought.

The only way the virus could have been halted was to quarantine China and keep those travelling from abroad in isolation until they were deemed safe.

We have missed that opportunity. The cat is out of the basket, we cannot stop the spread we can only limit the pace of spread. We cannot be isolated forever so the measures in place now, which were put in place before a significant infection rate had reached the provinces should be sufficient.

 

[spanishman]

I agree. But the whole point of lockdown was to slow down the spread so that services were not overwhelmed and in the hope that deaths can be minimised whilst a vaccine is sought.

The only way the virus could have been halted was to quarantine China and keep those travelling from abroad in isolation until they were deemed safe.

We have missed that opportunity. The cat is out of the basket, we cannot stop the spread we can only limit the pace of spread. We cannot be isolated forever so the measures in place now, which were put in place before a significant infection rate had reached the provinces should be sufficient.

Sorry to disagree. One extra unnecessary death is unacceptable in my eyes.

 

[go-nads!]

Sorry to disagree. One extra unnecessary death is unacceptable in my eyes.

It can’t be stopped, it’s impossible. People need to live, there comes a point when we come out of lockdown. There will be peaks and troughs for the foreseeable future until we get herd immunity or a vaccine. It’s just the way it is unless you limit ALL human to human contact.

 

[bear66]

As of 9am on 2 April 2020, 163,194 people have been tested, of which 33,718 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 1 April 2020, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 2,921 have died.

Similar number of deaths to yesterday and about 15% rise in infections.

 

[Billy Horner]

Today’s headline analysis (unvalidated):

• Number of new infections in 24-hour period falls slightly from yesterday (4,244 from 4,324)
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for infections falls slightly to 14.6% from 16.8% yesterday
• Highest number of new deaths in 24-hour period (569) but broadly similar to previous day (563)
• 4-day average for deaths grows by 27% slightly lower than yesterday’s 29.4% growth
• We have now begun to track slightly above Italy on a days since 20th death basis, having previously tracked slightly below. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 18 days

 

[bear66]

Today’s headline analysis (unvalidated):

• Number of new infections in 24-hour period falls slightly from yesterday (4,244 from 4,324)
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for infections falls slightly to 14.6% from 16.8% yesterday
• Highest number of new deaths in 24-hour period (569) but broadly similar to previous day (563)
• 4-day average for deaths grows by 27% slightly lower than yesterday’s 29.4% growth
• We have now begun to track slightly above Italy on a days since 20th death basis, having previously tracked slightly below. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 18 days

Thanks!

 

[Malaguena]

From a link I posted earlier - today's Spanish figures ...

Spain crossed the 100,000-infection mark on Wednesday, a threshold that has only been crossed by the two countries most affected by the coronavirus pandemic: the United States and Italy. The number of those tested positive in Spain reached 102,136, after 7,719 new cases were reported on Wednesday.
This is a daily increase of eight per cent, an almost unparalleled percentage since the virus first arrived in the country.
Nevertheless, this means that one in every 450 Spaniards has tested positive for Covid-19, though the real number of infections is undoubtedly much higher.

The virus has also claimed the lives of 864 people in the last 24 hours, a new record since the crisis began, bringing the death toll to 9,053. For the fifth day in a row, the death toll from the pandemic has exceeded 800. It is also the second consecutive day that the record has been broken.
However, despite another day of tragic figures, the statistics provided by the Ministry of Health confirm that Spain reached the peak of infection last week and that the pandemic, after a few days of apparently contradictory figures, is now beginning to slow down.

The daily percentage increase in deaths between Tuesday and Wednesday was 10 per cent, the smallest increase since the pandemic broke out in Spain. This is a far cry from the 27 per cent daily increase recorded a week ago. Even so, the number of deaths has practically doubled since last Friday.
It must be noted, however, that the pace of deaths takes much longer to slow down as these are people who were infected weeks or even up to a month ago when the epidemic was in full expansion phase.

The fact that the pandemic is now heading towards the control phase is also demonstrated by the volume of daily hospital discharges, which is breaking all records. In just 24 hours a total of 3,388 people have been declared healthy. This is a daily increase of 17 per cent, higher than on previous days, bringing the total number of discharges to 22,647.