The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Pak_Doo_Ik said:
I am no statician but I have been tracking number of deaths and according to what I have the averages for rolling 4 days increase have been 24/26/28/25% (today's first), again other than showing its fairly consistent, not sure what else it shows.

Today is day 17 since 21 deaths in the UK (using 21 as day 0), on day 17 Italy had recorded 2,158 deaths and the UK 1808.

From day 19 both Italy and Spain start to see a slow down in the % increase of deaths, hopefully we are following the same trend.
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‘Today’ is Day 16 in terms of deaths reported, as the numbers relate to yesterday (30/3) at 5pm. We reached 21 deaths on 14/3. At the same point in time (Day 16), Italy had 1,809 deaths compared with our 1,789.

The last six days’ new deaths in the UK were 156, 181, 260, 209, 180 and 381. This means that the 4-day average only grew by 3% when the 156 was replaced with 180, but by 24.1% when the 181 was replaced with 381. If those numbers are wrong I’m happy to be corrected.

Italy did see a slowing on Day 20, but a rise again on both Days 21 and 22. The growth has tended to be in single digit percentages since then though.
 
Billy Horner said:
• We continue to track just below Italy on a days since 20th death basis, having now done so for the past 16 days
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Just to put that final bullet point into some context, 16 days after their 20th reported death the United States had around one-third (681) of our numbers, France had three-fifths (1,100), Italy almost identical (1,809), whilst Spain had more than double (3,650).

Interestingly, and despite all of the plaudits they have received, whilst Germany is yet to reach Day 16, the evidence suggests they are tracking halfway between France and ourselves.
 
bear66 said:
"A 13-year-old boy from London has died after testing positive for coronavirus, King's College Hospital has said."
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No idea why the 13 year old would die, but the author of the linked article is an expert in the field of the immune system and pediatrics. There are young people that develop juvenile arthritis and lupus, and apparently this cohort is especially vulnerable to the virus because it is known they are susceptible to cytokine storms. I think many lupus sufferers are already aware and were locking down well before the government statements.

https://www.the-rheumatologist.org/article/dont-forget-the-host-covid-19-cytokine-storm/
 
Watched the Trump press conference earlier. There was a fascinating slide that Fauci was talking to which showed the modelling that they are using to shape policy. It's been produced by Chris Murray, Director of the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine. Although it's focussed on the United States, it's a really interesting resource which I've managed to find online at the link below:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

The thing that absolutely jumped out at me when Fauci was speaking was the shape of the curve for their predicted deaths per day (second chart on the link). I've been assuming the usual normal distribution with a peak in the middle and roughly the same numbers either side. However, this curve has a short, sharp incline followed by an incredibly long tail. Fauci said that was what they would expect with a novel virus.

The point here is, if you look at the data, they are expecting the peak in the US to be on 15th April, when total deaths are predicted to be 29,098 (according to the third chart). But the total number of deaths they are predicting by 15th July is 83,967 meaning that two-thirds of those deaths would occur AFTER the peak.

Presuming that they know what they're talking about, that would presumably be the case elsewhere as well. The long and the short of it being that an already grim picture in Italy, Spain and, quite possibly, here could end up being much, much worse.
 
Number of cases and deaths
As of 9am on 1 April 2020, 152,979 people have been tested, of which 29,474 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 31 March 2020, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 2,352 have died.

563 deaths yesterday ☹️
 
bear66 said:
Number of cases and deaths
As of 9am on 1 April 2020, 152,979 people have been tested, of which 29,474 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 31 March 2020, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 2,352 have died.

563 deaths yesterday ☹️
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Jesus! The last two days’ figures have been truly awful.

I had some misplaced optimism at the weekend that maybe, just maybe, we would escape the very worst of this and not suffer the fates of Italy and Spain. That optimism has well and truly evaporated. :cry:
 
Billy Horner said:
Jesus! The last two days’ figures have been truly awful.

I had some misplaced optimism at the weekend that maybe, just maybe, we would escape the very worst of this and not suffer the fates of Italy and Spain. That optimism has well and truly evaporated. :cry:
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The disclaimers with it say some deaths take 2 days to get reported so I guess any individual day isn't right. The new infections are up about 17% which is a bit higher than the last few days. That's not good news.
 
bear66 said:
The disclaimers with it say some deaths take 2 days to get reported so I guess any individual day isn't right. The new infections are up about 17% which is a bit higher than the last few days. That's not good news.
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That is one reason why you need to look at rolling 3-4 day moving averages. To smooth out the noise.
 
Are these deaths strictly covid 19 deaths or deaths of other means and the people conicidently having the virus?
Because many people think that at least half of the population has already had or been infected.

Something doesn't sit right with me with all these death figures from different countries. It's almost like it's a convenient source of blame to blame covid 19.
 
The people who believe half the population have been infected are wrong.

I have a friend in his 40s who is sedated on a ventilator at the moment. These are not normal times.

The small print:
Notes on deaths figures
The figures on deaths relate to patients who have died in hospital and who have tested positive for COVID-19. The figures are compiled from validated data provided by NHS England and Improvement, Health Protection Scotland, Public Health Wales and the Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland).

These figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes. This approach allows us to compile deaths data on a daily basis using up-to-date figures. The data includes confirmed cases reported as at 5pm the previous day. The amount of time between occurrence of death and reporting in these figures may vary slightly and in some cases could be a few days, so figures at 5pm may not include all deaths for that day.

In addition to these figures, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly counts of deaths in which COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. This publication is issued every Tuesday, starting on 31 March. It includes cases outside hospital and also some cases where COVID-19 is suspected but no test has taken place. ONS data will initially cover England and Wales only and will report on deaths registered up to 11 days before publication, so up to 20 March for their first release.
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They may aswell start including deaths of no virus related causes then wouldn't you agree?
 
RandySavage said:
Are these deaths strictly covid 19 deaths or deaths of other means and the people conicidently having the virus?
Because many people think that at least half of the population has already had or been infected.

Something doesn't sit right with me with all these death figures from different countries. It's almost like it's a convenient source of blame to blame covid 19.
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Everone has to have a cause of death - and it will say 'covid'
The bit of data missing is what is the normal UK death rate and how much has that increased.
I was told on Tuesday that approx. 10k die in the UK in a week, and that was fairly static. Not sure if it is true btw.
One thing that doesn't happen with the frequence of recent days is consultants/medics worldwide dying from the infection whilst working.
 
Today’s headline analysis (unvalidated):

• Highest number of new infections in 24-hour period (4,324)
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for infections jumps by 16.8% having previously slowed to 1.2% growth yesterday
• Highest number of new deaths in 24-hour period (563)
• 4-day average for deaths grows again by 29.4%
• We are now tracking Italy almost exactly on a days since 20th death basis, having done so for the past 17 days
 
1finny said:
Everone has to have a cause of death - and it will say 'covid'
The bit of data missing is what is the normal UK death rate and how much has that increased.
I was told on Tuesday that approx. 10k die in the UK in a week, and that was fairly static. Not sure if it is true btw.
One thing that doesn't happen with the frequence of recent days is consultants/medics worldwide dying from the infection whilst working.
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I touched on that the other week, excess winter deaths.

And again I still don't understand the media's fascination with reporting on how many people have died daily with illnesses caused by Coronavirus when they don't include deaths caused by other factors such as long term illnesses, accidents etc.
 
Cancer wards are closing and staff being moved to Coronavirus wards in the next 14 days, NO suspected cancer patients will be referred to hospital whilst the pandemic is ongoing, I don’t know what the situation is in other countries but it does sound as though Covid-19 treatment is being prioritised over other critical care. As of today JCU has 104 beds to treat Covid-19 sufferers and 96 are occupied, any death rate will not include those who pass away of other illnesses that may not have had treatment been available, and still people aren’t taking it as seriously as they should, I have seen people I know don’t live together for regular walks, boyfriends and girlfriends sleeping over it is insanity.

I’m not talking worst case scenarios or what might happen, this is what is going to happen, please redouble your efforts to stay safe, remain isolated and try to get through the other side of this extraordinary situation.
 
A doctor in Wales giving a dire warning to younger folk as well:
An intensive care consultant in a Welsh Covid-19 hotspot has said her unit at the Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport is full of people aged 20, 30 and 40.

Dr Ami Jones told ITV News:

We have already surged beyond our standard capacity. It’s not just the vulnerable and elderly that are getting poorly - my unit is full of 20-, 30- and 40-year-olds.​
Jones works for the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, which has the highest number of confirmed cases in Wales – 681.

She said the hospital is “very prepared” and has “surge plans” in place to cope with an influx of sick patients.

We are looking to exceed six times our normal critical care capacity, but it’s not just a case of giving us ventilators - we need more staff and we need other equipment.​
Jones urged the public to stay at home and only leave for essential journeys.

We are prepared to surge if we need to but we hope we don’t. We hope lockdown and social distancing will flatten the curve, but people do need to lock down.
Popping to the shops for a paper is not essential - everybody is at risk.
I’ve got ITU patients on my ward who were previously fit and well so if you think it’s not going to affect you and you can just go out and do what you want then you are wrong. You will end up in ITU if you are not careful.​
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