The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Billy Horner said:
You can’t compare them on a direct basis like that, as it takes different lengths of time for the virus to establish itself within the community. You have to do it on a days since Xth death basis, as that enables you to use numbers which are statistically significant.

Using that modelling, as of yesterday we were on a similar trajectory to Italy, but with slightly smaller numbers and 14 days behind. I haven’t looked at today’s figures yet.
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Billy we are neck and neck with Italy using the time from 10 deaths as the starting point. Our number of deaths doubles every 2.5 days and that has not significantly changed since 10 deaths. If nothing changes we will be loosing 1,000 per day in 7 days time, 4,000 per day in 2 weeks.

Make no mistake this is deadly serious and there is no pun there, intended or otherwise. I was being literal.
 
Laughing said:
Billy we are neck and neck with Italy using the time from 10 deaths as the starting point. Our number of deaths doubles every 2.5 days and that has not significantly changed since 10 deaths. If nothing changes we will be loosing 1,000 per day in 7 days time, 4,000 per day in 2 weeks.

Make no mistake this is deadly serious and there is no pun there, intended or otherwise. I was being literal.
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Agreed, but days since 10th death is actually a bit of an outlier, as it places us 17 days behind Italy. I’m using 20th death, as days since 20th, 100th, 200th and 500th deaths all place us 14 days behind, so I think that has more credibility.

Presuming we do follow a similar trajectory to Italy, then we won’t continue to see the rate doubling every 2.5 days. We will, however, experience very big numbers within short order, which may be slightly smaller than Italy’s but in the several thousands all the same.

Very grim prospect and one which I sincerely hope does not come to pass. We need to start seeing the numbers slow down soon though, in order for it not to.
 
My wife is watching a press conference, don't have many details, but a hospita (Kings Hospital London) l has suggested that the government is supressing the death toll. Essentially reporting late. I didn't see the press conference so I am not clear on the details.
 
Billy Horner said:
Agreed, but days since 10th death is actually a bit of an outlier, as it places us 17 days behind Italy. I’m using 20th death, as days since 20th, 100th, 200th and 500th deaths all place us 14 days behind, so I think that has more credibility.

Presuming we do follow a similar trajectory to Italy, then we won’t continue to see the rate doubling every 2.5 days. We will, however, experience very big numbers within short order, which may be slightly smaller than Italy’s but in the several thousands all the same.

Very grim prospect and one which I sincerely hope does not come to pass. We need to start seeing the numbers slow down soon though, in order for it not to.
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Billy Horner from another thread I know you deal in stats for your job so could you give your opinion on the impact of the lockdown on areas like Teesside where the figures would indicate that the area is behind London on both infection and death rates. Is it inevitable that we will catch up in a few days or weeks time or will our curve ‘flatten out’ at a lower level? In short, could we have some areas of the country having a different pandemic experience than others? Or is it inevitable that it will be the same everywhere just with different timing?
 
HolgateCorner said:
Billy Horner from another thread I know you deal in stats for your job so could you give your opinion on the impact of the lockdown on areas like Teesside where the figures would indicate that the area is behind London on both infection and death rates. Is it inevitable that we will catch up in a few days or weeks time or will our curve ‘flatten out’ at a lower level? In short, could we have some areas of the country having a different pandemic experience than others? Or is it inevitable that it will be the same everywhere just with different timing?
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Hi Holgate. As I said a bit earlier, I’m not an epidemiologist or anything, so wouldn’t want to give a definitive answer on that.

However, if you look around the world the outbreaks do seem to be centred around major cities such as Wuhan, Madrid, New York and London. From a statistical perspective (and a common sense one) that would seem to make sense as the higher populations, concentrations of office space, reliance on overcrowded public transport, etc. would appear to give plenty of potential human contacts to enable the virus to spread.

Compare that with Teesside and you have a smaller overall population, working in disparate employment locations and with greater usage of private vehicles to commute. Obviously, that reduces the potential number of contacts, even before you factor in that we’ve gone into lockdown at a much earlier stage of the epidemic here than is the case in London.

So I don’t think it’s inevitable that we catch up with other areas. In fact, if we do, it’s probably a sign that things have got really, really bad.
 
Billy Horner said:
Hi Holgate. As I said a bit earlier, I’m not an epidemiologist or anything, so wouldn’t want to give a definitive answer on that.

However, if you look around the world the outbreaks do seem to be centred around major cities such as Wuhan, Madrid, New York and London. From a statistical perspective (and a common sense one) that would seem to make sense as the higher populations, concentrations of office space, reliance on overcrowded public transport, etc. would appear to give plenty of potential human contacts to enable the virus to spread.

Compare that with Teesside and you have a smaller overall population, working in disparate employment locations and with greater usage of private vehicles to commute. Obviously, that reduces the potential number of contacts, even before you factor in that we’ve gone into lockdown at a much earlier stage of the epidemic here than is the case in London.

So I don’t think it’s inevitable that we catch up with other areas. In fact, if we do, it’s probably a sign that things have got really, really bad.
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Thanks for that, let’s hope we don’t catch up.
 
As of 9am on 30 March 2020, a total of 134,946 people have been tested, of which 112,805 were confirmed negative and 22,141 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 29 March 2020, 1,408 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
 
HolgateCorner said:
Thanks for that, let’s hope we don’t catch up.
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You also have a fantastic advantage. Not many people from London and Birmingham (and whatever other big centres of infection you have) are likely to have 2nd homes in the Teesside area. So you are less likely to have got loads of infections from people heading in your direction. Just before the lock down happened.
 
If I understand what's just been said on Newsnight, Covid-19 deaths will now be reported weekly. Also, the current numbers are just hospital deaths; in future, they will be all Covid-19 deaths.
 
bear66 said:
If I understand what's just been said on Newsnight, Covid-19 deaths will now be reported weekly. Also, the current numbers are just hospital deaths; in future, they will be all Covid-19 deaths.
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I think, if I’m reading it correctly, they’re still going to report hospital deaths daily. However, the Office for National Statistics will publish figures for non-hospital deaths once a week (on Tuesdays) based on the previous week’s death certificates.

Not expected to add significantly to the current numbers. Guardian story on this below:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...als-to-be-included-in-uk-tally-for-first-time
 
Billy Horner said:
I think, if I’m reading it correctly, they’re still going to report hospital deaths daily. However, the Office for National Statistics will publish figures for non-hospital deaths once a week (on Tuesdays) based on the previous week’s death certificates.

Not expected to add significantly to the current numbers. Guardian story on this below:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...als-to-be-included-in-uk-tally-for-first-time
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Thanks for that. It wasn't that clear on Newsnight. Makes sense. Presumably the will be a huge rise today to catch up.
 
I had a look into Germany only reporting deaths that happen in hospitals and most of the articles agreed it wouldn’t make much difference to the total. For the vast majority of people if your coronavirus symptoms are bad enough to course death you would be in hospital.
 
ABHBORO said:
I had a look into Germany only reporting deaths that happen in hospitals and most of the articles agreed it wouldn’t make much difference to the total. For the vast majority of people if your coronavirus symptoms are bad enough to course death you would be in hospital.
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That’s my understanding too. In addition, if someone hasn’t been hospitalised then there’s unlikely to be much suspicion that Covid-19 was a cause of death, so probably quite small numbers confined to care homes, etc. where there’s been a known outbreak.
 
Billy Horner said:
That’s my understanding too. In addition, if someone hasn’t been hospitalised then there’s unlikely to be much suspicion that Covid-19 was a cause of death, so probably quite small numbers confined to care homes, etc. where there’s been a known outbreak.
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It will be interesting to see what is classed as a covid-19 death.
Is a 80 year old man that died in he’s sleep but tested positive for covid-19 a natural death or will it go down as a covid-19 death?
 
Billy Horner said:
That’s my understanding too. In addition, if someone hasn’t been hospitalised then there’s unlikely to be much suspicion that Covid-19 was a cause of death, so probably quite small numbers confined to care homes, etc. where there’s been a known outbreak.
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I think the major issue with Germany is a lot of post-mortems are required before cause of death is known. So, assuming a person died in a care home and a post mortem was carried out and it was concluded Covid-19 was responsible, it would be recorded. Post mortems have delayed a lot of hospital death recordings as well.

France and Italy have only recorded hospital deaths till now but are changing.

Spain have counted all deaths. 95% of deaths in Alicante are in care homes.
 
bear66 said:
I think the major issue with Germany is a lot of post-mortems are required before cause of death is known. So, assuming a person died in a care home and a post mortem was carried out and it was concluded Covid-19 was responsible, it would be recorded. Post mortems have delayed a lot of hospital death recordings as well.

France and Italy have only recorded hospital deaths till now but are changing.

Spain have counted all deaths. 95% of deaths in Alicante are in care homes.
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Thanks for that Bear. I didn’t realise that Spain were counting non-hospital deaths to such an extent.

I know there are many theories as to why Germany has had a comparatively low mortality rate, including how they are recording deaths. I still suspect, however, that the main reason is that their testing and contact tracing has been exemplary.
 
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