The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

#23
Has anyone plotted the curve since we were exactly neck and neck with Italy on 233 deaths on same number of days? Iirc Italy had a big spike after that whereas we seem to have been at around 60 (average) deaths a day since with no steady increase (yet), though not saying thats not coming because it probably is.
 

bear66

Well-known member
#24
Has anyone plotted the curve since we were exactly neck and neck with Italy on 233 deaths on same number of days? Iirc Italy had a big spike after that whereas we seem to have been at around 60 (average) deaths a day since with no steady increase (yet), though not saying thats not coming because it probably is.
A general question. How does each country count a "coronavirus death". The French figures do not include those who die at home or care homes. Do Italy or do we have a similar policy?
 
#25
A general question. How does each country count a "coronavirus death". The French figures do not include those who die at home or care homes. Do Italy or do we have a similar policy?
yes, one of the big flaws in the statistical analysis of all this. My mate works in Japan a lot and he says the people there simply don't believe the official statistics.
 
#27
So I've just looked and on 7th March Italy had 233 deaths, we did on 21st March.

By 12th March, Italy had 1000, we're still less than half that (but will probably pass 500 today).

Going only off 'official' figures of course.
Atypical that is good news, relatively speaking. hopefully we will continue to stay under the Italy curve and we don't start to escalate. Can I ask where you got the historical figures from?
 
#29
Atypical that is good news, relatively speaking. hopefully we will continue to stay under the Italy curve and we don't start to escalate. Can I ask where you got the historical figures from?
I knew from memory that on the first day of spring (5 days ago), we were exactly level with Italy but two weeks behind.

I then just googled 12th March for the total number of Italian deaths. How scary, though, to think that only two weeks after that date (ie today), Italy have 6,500 more on top of the 1,000 they'd had by that date.

Here's praying we somehow continue to stay below their curve.

Someone with some relative expertise recently told me that infections aren't really worth paying any attention to since all nations are testing differently, so the measure by which to 'gauge concern' should only be fatalities. Motown is right, number of infections will rise here but hopefully deaths won't follow the pattern of steepness closely.
 
#30
I knew from memory that on the first day of spring (5 days ago), we were exactly level with Italy but two weeks behind.

I then just googled 12th March for the total number of Italian deaths. How scary, though, to think that only two weeks after that date (ie today), Italy have 6,500 more on top of the 1,000 they'd had by that date.

Here's praying we somehow continue to stay below their curve.

Someone with some relative expertise recently told me that infections aren't really worth paying any attention to since all nations are testing differently, so the measure by which to 'gauge concern' should only be fatalities. Motown is right, number of infections will rise here but hopefully deaths won't follow the pattern of steepness closely.
As said elsewhere, it looks like there is creative accounting going on with deaths as well in some countries.
 
#31
The figures do seem to suggest that we are falling behind Italy trend wise, which is a good sign and infections per 1m of the population are also considerably lower than most other European countries, our one stand out statistic is our number of deaths per 1m of the population, which as of yesterday stood at 7 which is one of the highest in Europe (excluding Spain and Italy), not sure if this is down to reporting anomalies but is cause for concern.
 
#32
As said elsewhere, it looks like there is creative accounting going on with deaths as well in some countries.
Yes, I mean I don't think you need to be an expert to see there's something funny going on in Japan. I mean HOW could they have basically 'defeated' the virus so easily without sharing their magic formula with the rest of the world? It's almost next to China!
 
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#33
The figures do seem to suggest that we are falling behind Italy trend wise, which is a good sign and infections per 1m of the population are also considerably lower than most other European countries, our one stand out statistic is our number of deaths per 1m of the population, which as of yesterday stood at 7 which is one of the highest in Europe (excluding Spain and Italy), not sure if this is down to reporting anomalies but is cause for concern.
We're actually well below Benelux, France and Switzerland too though, closer to Scandinavia on that front.
 
#34
our one stand out statistic is our number of deaths per 1m of the population, which as of yesterday stood at 7 which is one of the highest in Europe (excluding Spain and Italy), not sure if this is down to reporting anomalies but is cause for concern.
Apparently, the Department of Health has changed the way in which it publishes the statistics recently, which has depressed the numbers slightly.

They are now having to receive consent from next of kin to include their loved one’s deaths in the numbers. I suspect this will be due to data protection regulations at a local level (i.e. individual hospital trusts) where reporting the death of, say, one individual might enable the public to identify said individual.

This has led to a slight time lag in reporting some of the deaths, which means that the numbers published recently are not necessarily an accurate reflection of the previous day’s figures. Of course, as we go along, the time lag will work it’s way through the system, meaning larger numbers are on the horizon, regardless of progression of the virus.
 

1finny

Well-known member
#36
People on this thread seem very interested in the number of dead and conspiracy theory.

Apparently the experts are saying UK "deaths" will peak in 3 weeks time (as long as we do as we are told) - my understanding of that is the the count will go up daily until then.

We are in the sXXt like the rest of the world, is that not enough?
Not sure which experts Dave.
We have a chain of funeral homes and the advice we have is that peak deaths will be mid to end May.
 
#37
Not sure which experts Dave.
We have a chain of funeral homes and the advice we have is that peak deaths will be mid to end May.
Whilst obviously some people know more about this than others, I don't think anyone can say *exactly* what will happen and its not a bad thing to live in the hope that things might not be as bad as predicted. As long as you're also prepared for the worst too.
 

bear66

Well-known member
#38
Latest figures with delay in figures for deaths, as pointed out by Billy Horner

Number of cases
As of 9am on 26 March 2020, a total of 104,866 people have been tested, of which 93,208 were confirmed negative and 11,658 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 25 March 2020, 578 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have
died.
 
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bear66

Well-known member
#40
As of 9am on 27 March 2020, a total of 113,777 people have been tested, of which 99,234 were confirmed negative and 14,543 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 26 March 2020, 759 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
 
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