The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Laughing

Well-known member
Bear thats a mortality rate of about 6%. The truth is probably much lower given the number of non-tested people who probably have the virus. It's a frightening time we are living in.
 

bear66

Well-known member
I've just listened to the Andrew Cuomo (governor of New York).

I'm impressed with the way every situation is given some numerical reference. Number of beds and ventilators got, being procured and needed. Impressed they've had over 60000 retired medical people returning to help!

They quote number of cases and number needing hospitalisation. They have a much lower mortality rate but we seem to only test those hospitalised leading to the high mortality rate.

He also showed the number of days for cases doubling. This has gone from 2.3 to 3 to 4 days, so the rate of increase could peak in about 3 weeks. It's nice to see real data to present the situation as it is rather than hear "ramping up", "we've ordered" with no reference to know what's really going.
 

ABHBORO

Active member
It’s still lower than Italy at the same stage. Let’s hope it stays that way because Italy have just announced 919 deaths in the last 24hrs
 

bear66

Well-known member
Latest - bad news for 33% increase in deaths - 15% increase infections is hopefully goodish news.

As of 9am on 28 March 2020, a total of 120,776 people have been tested, of which 103,687 were confirmed negative and 17,089 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 27 March 2020, 1,019 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.

The figures for test results and for deaths are compiled from different sources. This is why the figures for deaths are reported from an earlier point in time than the figures for test results.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
finny I would think so long as they continue using the same testing strategy the figures can be extrapolated. Once we get more test kits the numbers reported will rise, but it will be significant only because we are testing more.

Spain look kinda like they may be close to turning the corner. Too early to say, but we can hope.
 

Cooper671

Well-known member
Spain are having a nightmare. Death rate still climbing, Madrid and Catalonia set to become worse than Lombardy and the army finding old people living amongst the dead left abandoned. I know why I’d rather be and it’s not Spain
 

spanishman

Well-known member
I posted this yesterday, but this is the rationale for why we might be approaching the peak and about to turn the corner ...

http://www.surinenglish.com/national/202003/26/spain-covid-death-toll-20200326141017.html
I also published a different story on the same theme. Have not checked the stats today. The analysis said your need to look a rolling 4 day average. Then compare the ratio between one day's average with the next. That gives you a growth factor. We reached a factor of over 4. It is now down below 2 (or was yesterday). So the rate of growth is reducing. Due to the lock down starting to have an impact.

The figures are still horrible in 3 hubs (Madrid, Catalonia and Málaga). Elsewhere they are not so bad, touch wood.
 
Last edited:

bear66

Well-known member
How? They reported their highest number of deaths in a day yet. Up for a third day in a row.
They're death rate isn't climbing and their infection rate by % is lower than ours. The comment was made in regard to a number of regions beginning to see improvements rather than the overall picture.
 

1finny

Well-known member
The other way of looking at it is
The Chief Medical Officer expects circa 20000 deaths.
The number doubles every 3/4 days - that’s only 20 days before light at the end of the tunnel?
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
The other way of looking at it is
The Chief Medical Officer expects circa 20000 deaths.
The number doubles every 3/4 days - that’s only 20 days before light at the end of the tunnel?

He actually said that if we end up with fewer than 20,000 deaths we will have “done very well”.

Anyway, that aside, if the numbers do keep doubling every 3/4 days for the next 20 days then we will be totally screwed. Not only would we be well above 20,000 deaths by that point in time, but we would also still have to endure a similar number on the down slope.

Not saying that will happen by the way, just pointing out that we need to see the rate of growth slowing before we can have any real optimism.
 
Top
X