Billy Horner
Well-known member
As Bear states, the rise in the number of new deaths reported may be explained in part by a suspected under-reporting of the figures for the past two days.
The 9am figures not disclosed yet?
- Thread starter bear66
- Start date
spanishman
Well-known member
Seems to happen in Spain as well.
newusername
Well-known member
Test figures don't include Leeds or Manchester.
Billy Horner
Well-known member
Yes, I saw that. It actually states that "today's people tested figure excludes data from Manchester and Leeds due to a data processing delay".
The number of people tested (daily and total) is a statistic reported in its own right. I also note that it states "figure" (singular).
Therefore, I've taken it to mean that the data which is missing relates purely to that one statistic and not the number of positive tests. I agree that the wording is a bit confusing though.
bear66
Well-known member
As of 9am 8 April, 282,074 tests have concluded, with 14,682 tests on 7 April.
232,708 people have been tested of which 60,733 tested positive.
As of 5pm on 7 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 7,097 have sadly died.
About 5492 new infections. About 10% increase.
938 deaths today, although the ways these are reported are such that the majority were in the days before yesterday.
232,708 people have been tested of which 60,733 tested positive.
As of 5pm on 7 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 7,097 have sadly died.
About 5492 new infections. About 10% increase.
938 deaths today, although the ways these are reported are such that the majority were in the days before yesterday.
Billy Horner
Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:
• Number of new infections in 24-hour period increases to 5,491, the highest in four days
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for new infections increases by 10.3%, having been negative for the past two days and decreased for three consecutive days
• Highest number of new deaths in 24-hour period (938), up from 786 yesterday
• 4-day average for new deaths grows by 9.0%, more than doubling since yesterday (4.2%)
• We continue to track above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 24 days.
• We remain approximately 14 days behind Italy’s numbers
• Number of new infections in 24-hour period increases to 5,491, the highest in four days
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for new infections increases by 10.3%, having been negative for the past two days and decreased for three consecutive days
• Highest number of new deaths in 24-hour period (938), up from 786 yesterday
• 4-day average for new deaths grows by 9.0%, more than doubling since yesterday (4.2%)
• We continue to track above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 24 days.
• We remain approximately 14 days behind Italy’s numbers
Billy Horner
Well-known member
Some important notes on the above. Increase in positive tests may be explained in part by a higher number of overall testing.
As Bear states, the vast majority of the new deaths reported did not actually occur in the past 24 hours. 'Only' 135 of the reported deaths (in England) occured yesterday (that number will be revised upwards in the coming days), with most deaths happening on the previous day and the three days preceding. One death reported today actually occured on 4th March.
As Bear states, the vast majority of the new deaths reported did not actually occur in the past 24 hours. 'Only' 135 of the reported deaths (in England) occured yesterday (that number will be revised upwards in the coming days), with most deaths happening on the previous day and the three days preceding. One death reported today actually occured on 4th March.
spanishman
Well-known member
A question for you... How does Spain compare with Italy? I think our figures are higher. However I was wondering how much we are behind Italy (or in front of the UK) in terms of time?
Is this an easy thing to say?
Billy Horner
Well-known member
I haven't updated yet with today's number from across Europe. However, as a general trend, Spain has seen by far the steepest rise on a 'days since 20th death basis' followed by the United Kingdom and Italy.
To illustrate that, the UK is on Day 24 since its 20th death and has a total of 7,097 deaths. Italy had 6,077 deaths by that point, whilst Spain had already experienced 10,348.
Spain's curve has noticeably flattened over the past few days. I gather from the news, however, that the numbers have risen again today, so I would need to see what impact that has had on the curve.
spanishman
Well-known member
Ok. Ta. It is not really needed. It is just out of curiosity.
newusername
Well-known member
Some Prof said this is less important as they are modelling trends in which the daily fluctuations are smoothed, and from looking at previous reported figures compared to actuals that the delays are consistent & you can model what range the expected actual daily figure will be.
Also taking that all into account, it still isn't going to be an exact figure as all dead people aren't being tested & people hospitalised with Covid can die of other things.
Billy Horner
Well-known member
I would agree with that. It is the trend which is far more important than individual numbers plus, if we are comparing with other countries, we have to assume that they have also experienced a time lag between deaths occuring and their being reported.
I was merely making the point about dates in order to contextualise the data. I use the numbers reported every day as the basis for trend analysis and comparison.
spanishman
Well-known member
Not sure where you get your data from for Spain. Is this sort of thing any good for you?
Based on 4 day moving averages.
Based on 4 day moving averages.
bear66
Well-known member
As of 9am on 9 April, 298,169 tests have concluded across the UK, with 16,095 tests carried out on 8 April. Some individuals are tested more than once for clinical reasons.
243,421 people have been tested, of whom 65,077 tested positive. The tests concluded figure excludes data from Northern Ireland.
As of 5pm on 8 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 7,978 have died.
243,421 people have been tested, of whom 65,077 tested positive. The tests concluded figure excludes data from Northern Ireland.
As of 5pm on 8 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 7,978 have died.
Billy Horner
Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:
• Number of new infections in 24-hour period falls to 4,344 from 5,492 yesterday
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for new infections decreases by 8.3% in contrast to a 10.3% increase yesterday
• 881 new deaths in 24-hour period , slightly lower than yesterday (938)
• 4-day average for new deaths grows by 9.3%, up from 9.0% yesterday
• We have started to track further above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 25 days and have been tracking above Italy for the past 8 days.
• We are approximately 13.5 days behind Italy’s numbers (from 14 days behind yesterday).
• Number of new infections in 24-hour period falls to 4,344 from 5,492 yesterday
• Rate of growth in 4-day average for new infections decreases by 8.3% in contrast to a 10.3% increase yesterday
• 881 new deaths in 24-hour period , slightly lower than yesterday (938)
• 4-day average for new deaths grows by 9.3%, up from 9.0% yesterday
• We have started to track further above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 25 days and have been tracking above Italy for the past 8 days.
• We are approximately 13.5 days behind Italy’s numbers (from 14 days behind yesterday).
Billy Horner
Well-known member
With apologies for tardiness on the above. Was doing my essential shopping in Tesco.
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
What do you think? Are we levelling out as the ‘experts’ seem to be claiming at the 5pm updates and when do you think the deaths will peak?
Billy Horner
Well-known member
Thanks spanishman. Do you know the source for those figures? Are they the official statistics?
I use the stats on wikipedia for each country, as they have a page for every country with their timeline in the same format. They use worldometer as their source.
I did check my figures against the ones the British government are using when comparing the UK position with Spain, and they're almost identical, so I think they must be using wikipedia too!