Billy Horner
Well-known member
Billy, when looking at Italys dying it was awful watching that poor country suffer so much, are you now saying we are in a worse position, stats wise, god help us
Hi Erimus. There are different ways of tracking the numbers, but they all say broadly the same thing.
I use days since 20th death as my primary measure, as it gives time for the virus to reach a level of establishment in a country whilst also giving a decent length of time to track numbers. I’ve noticed Sky have been using days since 100th death.
Pretty much from the start of my trajectory, we have very closely followed Italy’s experience and have now broadly done so for 19 days. Spain, for example, have tracked well above those figures, whilst France is below (but narrowing).
In the past few days, we have seen a noticeable acceleration above Italy’s figures at the same point in time. However, in terms of ‘best fit’ we are still closer to Italy’s trajectory than anyone else (but now slightly above).
Of course, these are projections and our future is not bound to follow the experience of others. But, in answer to your question, yes as things stand we look like we will endure a similar (or slightly higher) experience as Italy.