There is a longer descriptive article:
https://smreputationmetrics.wordpre...en-la-comunicacion-de-crisis-del-coronavirus/
You can see the diagrams referred to in the translation in this article.
Here is a Google translation:
I propose in another way the usefulness (importance?) Of presenting the evolution data of the epidemic showing relative data such as the multiplication rate (but also the daily percentage increase or the doubling time), in addition to communicating the figures daily and total cases, for crisis communication adapted to the challenges of its public and private management.
For those unfamiliar with the term, the multiplication rate is the number of times the total number of reported (or deceased, or hospitalized) cases is multiplied in a given period of time. The interval that I have chosen in the charts that I disseminate is 4 days (I will explain why 4 days in another space). It is important to highlight that it is a matter of relating the increase in total cases, from the beginning of the epidemic. For example, the total cases registered in Spain on April 1 were 102,137. Four days earlier, on March 28, there were 72,248 cases registered. So, the case multiplication rate as of April 1 is Ct / Ct-4; 102,137 / 72,248 = 1.41. The cases have multiplied by 1.41, they have increased by 41%. If it is 2.0, they are multiplied by two every four days. If it is 1.0 (exact), in the last four days there have been no new cases (Ct / Ct-4 = 1; Ct = Ct-4), the expansion of the epidemic has been entirely cut off, as regards cases of declared new infections.
The epidemic, all epidemic diffusion moves in cycle: implantation, development, growth, containment, deactivation, or in the technical way that they receive from epidemiology experts (among whom I am not). The dynamics of the cycle, reflected in the evolution of daily cases, is the elephant within the boa.
All right. The problem with the cycle is that appearances are deceiving, but not systematically, but in two critical phases of the cycle: in the initial propagation (Phase 1) and in the zone where the maximum number of cases is reached, the famous peak (Phase 3).
In the initial development part (Phase 1), the appearance is that things are going well, because we are talking about tens or a few hundred cases, with no deaths. Insignificant, negligible thing. And so it has been despised country after country, despite having the message of terror from other countries that were advanced in the internal development of the epidemic. The appearance is that everything is going well, that there are so few cases that everything is controlled, because they are detected above. But the reality is that things are going wrong, because inaction allows the bug to spread and multiply at will, at its natural rate. No one slows it down. And it is the background noise, which is almost invisible, but it is real: contagion multiplies every two to three days. Against small, insignificant total numbers, yes. They are the snowball that will make it more or less giant in the end. The reality is bad.
Then when the cases are fired (Phase 2) there is no longer a divorce: the appearance is really bad, and so is the reality. The cases continue to multiply, which are already beginning to be noticeable, and the first measures are taken to limit contagion, but the effects translate into nothing. At this stage it is very easy to take containment measures against the spread of the epidemic, because everyone sees the catastrophic consequences. But the great thing would have been to take those steps before it explodes in the face, the fastest in phase 1.
In phase 3 there is again a problem of divorce between appearance and reality, because the containment measures, private and public, are already beginning to have a real impact in reducing the rate of virus transmission, but the appearance is Dantesque, because they rise cases. This divorce between appearance and reality is also disastrous, because it consumes energy, the hope of those who suffer the consequences of confinement, casts doubt on the measures and puts pressure to take more measures like crazy.
But the situation is about to turn around. And in the last phase (Phase 4), new cases fall day by day, and then a little later, that of the deceased. Things seem to get better, and they actually do.
Well, it is very difficult to see that things go wrong in the initial phase, and that they begin to go well in phase 3 of change, if one looks at the graphs of daily data and accumulated data (both in linear or logarithmic format) .
To illustrate the dynamics of the epidemic, I take the case of the epidemic and closed in the first wave, from Wuhan-Hubei. The first graph is the one of the new daily contagion cases reported, from the day that there are 100 counted cases. The jump in data observed from the 24th is artificial: it is because from that day on, not only the cases of the macro city of Wuhan, but also those of the region, Hubei, are added to the statistics.
It is difficult to see, in any of the 3 graphs, that the situation in Phase 1 is bad and that the situation in Phase 3 is good (something if you see it in the first daily data graph).
Instead, that information, both that things are going wrong in the initial phase (Phase 1), and that things are improving in transition phase 3, they are in the multiplication rate charts and the like.
That is, the multiplication rate (and similar relative measures) manage to match well, for each of the stages, the visual information with the reality of the dynamics of the epidemic, of reality, whether it is already apparent or hidden. . Therefore, it illuminates the experts' speech and makes it understood.
Let's go back to the multiplication rate graph. In phase 1 (orange), although the cases are few, the indicator alerts you that the situation is out of control: the cases multiply by 4! every 4 days. It is a clear and resounding message, which should help to take action.
In phase 2 (red), of already visible and constant growth of cases and deaths, people understand that 1000 is bad, and that if you have 3,000 four days later, we have a serious problem. Politicians and the public are ready to take action. Increasing absolute numbers help convey a sense of emergency and therefore urgency.
Does the multiplier drop in this explosion phase? Yes, because people already started shaking hands less and began washing their hands more. But the message of the rate is not that it is going down, it is that the multiple is still between 2 and 3. If there is no reaction, the total figures will continue to multiply, explosively.
And it reacts. In individual behavior and in public measures of mobility restrictions and social contact. And the days go by, and it seems that it is useless because the dead continue to grow. But yes, it happens. The multiplier already falls below 2. It is Phase 3 (yellow). It is in this phase 3 where the multiplication rate again plays a role that can be key in crisis communication: to explain that yes, that the measures have and their expected impact, despite appearances. In this phase you have to drill less with the death records. Not because the death toll and its increasing number is a lie, but because that is only part of the reality of what is happening. Because it is really happening: the change of rhythm announces a change of cycle.
And I remain quite convinced that transmitting that idea, that the dynamics are changing, is really difficult to transmit with data and graphics in absolute terms. And that "trust us, we are better" does not work either. People need to see. And what the multiplication rate tells us, or the measures of percentage increases, is that you can see it. That this tool exists, that it helps to detach itself from appearances. That the rate is not a trick of manipulation, but on the contrary is a way to touch reality.
We are all learning everything with this pandemic, its impact and its management. Cross fertilization of knowledge and talents is taking place in a manner and with prodigious speed and flexibility. It must also be done in how to communicate the crisis.
Francesc, are we in Phase 3? I think so. It is precisely what epidemiologists say (pending that yes of the evolution in Catalonia). I do not know how far we are from Phase 2 and how close to Phase 4. As we are probably in Phase 3, it is time to put the indicators of relative variation of the epidemic into action, because they can help the population (and the press and political leaders) to understand what is happening, so as not to become more psychologically overwhelmed.
And there will come a phase 4 (green), in which the multiplication rate will get closer and closer to 1.0, to the goal (I remember that the rise here is because they added cases from the entire province). But in this phase 4 the multiplication rate will no longer play any strategic role, because the appearance will align itself again with reality: each day the new cases and deaths are lower than the previous day.
