The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

bear66 said:
Do you know if Italy are including care home deaths? There's a really worrying report suggesting about 50% of deaths in Spain, Italy, Ireland, France and Belgium are in the community.

Link
Click to expand...

As far as I can ascertain, Italy report hospital deaths in a similar way to the UK. The article below (from about 10 days ago) certainly suggests that is still the case.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/covid-19-study-suggests-italy-death-toll-much-higher/1789603#

The only country that I'm aware of who have started to include care home deaths has been France. By doing so, their death statistics spiked in the last week to 10 days, and they even recorded over 1,400 deaths in one day. I know some of the statistical websites have started to take those numbers back out again, because it totally skews any comparison with other countries.
 
Billy Horner said:
As far as I can ascertain, Italy report hospital deaths in a similar way to the UK. The article below (from about 10 days ago) certainly suggests that is still the case.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/covid-19-study-suggests-italy-death-toll-much-higher/1789603#

The only country that I'm aware of who have started to include care home deaths has been France. By doing so, their death statistics spiked in the last week to 10 days, and they even recorded over 1,400 deaths in one day. I know some of the statistical websites have started to take those numbers back out again, because it totally skews any comparison with other countries.
Click to expand...
If that link I put up earlier is right, that suggests the deaths in Italy are more than double the hospital reported cases. This is more than numbers though. It must be desperate in care homes trying to ensure this virus is kept out.
 
bear66 said:
If that link I put up earlier is right, that suggests the deaths in Italy are more than double the hospital reported cases. This is more than numbers though. It must be desperate in care homes trying to ensure this virus is kept out.
Click to expand...

I have a feeling that care home deaths will be the big scandal that emerges from this wave of the virus. Totally unprepared, staff with makeshift PPE and many residents who were DNR and so left to die in as dignified a manner as possible.

We might see an element of this in tomorrow’s ONS release on registered deaths. However, I suspect it won’t be until later in the year when excess deaths are calculated that the true impact will be known.
 
Billy Horner said:
I have a feeling that care home deaths will be the big scandal that emerges from this wave of the virus. Totally unprepared, staff with makeshift PPE and many residents who were DNR and so left to die in as dignified a manner as possible.

We might see an element of this in tomorrow’s ONS release on registered deaths. However, I suspect it won’t be until later in the year when excess deaths are calculated that the true impact will be known.
Click to expand...
I agree with you, there are all the hallmarks of a disaster and a human tragedy emerging with regard to the care homes. The 5pm panel this evening looked very uncomfortable when the journalists started questioning the care homes situation.
 
HolgateCorner said:
I agree with you, there are all the hallmarks of a disaster and a human tragedy emerging with regard to the care homes. The 5pm panel this evening looked very uncomfortable when the journalists started questioning the care homes situation.
Click to expand...
Just watching C4+1 news. A whistleblower claiming that many probable Covid-19 deaths are not having that on their death certificates. There seem to be many reasons for it, not necessarily malicious, but pressured GPs going for old people's diseases instead. Also Liz Kendall saying Ireland count care home deaths daily in order to focus on Covid-19 hotspots with appropriate resources. Unlike our weekly out of date ONS figures.
 
newusername said:
Although it is a drop in new people tested, only 8.5k compared to an avg 12.5k a day over the last week, that is a noticeable drop in postives from an avg 5.5k a day over the last week.

In an earlier post you mention that recorded deaths fall over a weekend, there hasn't been a similar drop in positive tests in previous weekends so this drop could be cause for optimism.

From 15th March the increase in deaths were tracking the increase in positives from c.14 days earlier. However from the 28th March the gap between deaths & positives increased from -2 to 1800 now. Those positives two weeks ago are before the expansion of testing, only 6,999 new people tested that day, so again there are definite signs of a levelling.
Click to expand...

Apologies. I must have skipped over this earlier.

I would agree that the weekend delays which have impacted on the death statistics don't appear to have had a similar effect on the testing figures. Therefore, it is encouraging that this has fallen.

However, my note of caution would be that there have been instances previously where the daily number of positive tests has fallen, only to rise again in the following days. Also, in Italy and Spain where it appears they have passed the peak, they experienced many consecutive days of negative growth in their average positive tests. We haven't come close to that as yet.
 
Billy Horner said:
Apologies. I must have skipped over this earlier.

I would agree that the weekend delays which have impacted on the death statistics don't appear to have had a similar effect on the testing figures. Therefore, it is encouraging that this has fallen.

However, my note of caution would be that there have been instances previously where the daily number of positive tests has fallen, only to rise again in the following days. Also, in Italy and Spain where it appears they have passed the peak, they experienced many consecutive days of negative growth in their average positive tests. We haven't come close to that as yet.
Click to expand...
Billy I think we have at least a couple of weeks before we peak. There are some signs, but the signals, for me are not strong enough yet. But reasons to be optimistic.

I think you said a week or so ago that Spain and Italy, showed a stubborn failure to drop of in the number of deaths after the peak, which is supported by an american report I read about the distribution curve for virus control where the tail is twice as long as the incline.

Here's hoping we are over the worst.
 
Laughing said:
Billy I think we have at least a couple of weeks before we peak. There are some signs, but the signals, for me are not strong enough yet. But reasons to be optimistic.

Here's hoping we are over the worst.
Click to expand...

Number of cases and deaths

As of 9am on 14 April, 382,650 tests have concluded, with 14,982 tests carried out on 13 April.


302,599 people have been tested, of whom 93,873 tested positive.


As of 5pm on 13 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 12,107 have died.
Click to expand...

778 new deaths in hospital. Last Monday it was 786.
That is the first week on week fall.

Definite signs of a levelling off of deaths in hospital.
 
As of 9am 14 April, 382,650 tests have concluded, with 14,982 tests on 13 April.

302,599 people have been tested of which 93,873 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 13 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 12,107 have sadly died.

5.5% increase in positive tests. Lower than last week.

Seems to be a problem with falling number of tests compared with 18000 a few days ago. A Welsh minister not happy about spare testing capacity failing to be used.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 5,252 new infections in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 4,342
• 4-day average for new infections increases marginally by 0.3%, having remained unchanged yesterday
• 778 new deaths reported in 24-hour period, up from 717 yesterday
• 4-day average for new deaths decreases by 6.0%, following 4.7% decrease yesterday and the third consecutive day of decreases
• We continue to track above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 30 days and have been tracking above Italy for the past 13 days.
• We are approximately 13.5 days behind Italy’s numbers (from 13 days behind yesterday)
 
Last edited:
Note of caution about the above figures, whilst there have been three consecutive days of decreases in the 4-day average for new deaths, this has coincided with the Easter weekend. There are well known administrative problems with reporting deaths over a weekend, which may well have extended into the figures for Easter Monday. We will have a better idea tomorrow whether this is a blip or the beginning of a new trend.
 
Billy Horner said:
Today's headline analysis:

• 5,252 new infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 4,342
• 4-day average for new infections increases marginally by 0.3%, having remained unchanged yesterday
• 778 new deaths reported in 24-hour period, up from 717 yesterday
• 4-day average for new deaths decreases by 6.0%, following 4.7% decrease yesterday and the third consecutive day of decreases
• We continue to track above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 30 days and have been tracking above Italy for the past 13 days.
• We are approximately 13.5 days behind Italy’s numbers (from 13 days behind yesterday)
Click to expand...
How is 5252 down from 4342 ? That's up where I come from.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 4,605 new infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 5,252
• 4-day average for new infections decreases marginally by 0.1%, having increased marginally by 0.3% yesterday (it has been broadly unchanged for four consecutive days)
• 761 new deaths reported in 24-hour period, down slightly from 778 yesterday
• 4-day average for new deaths decreases by 5.0%, following 6.0% decrease yesterday and the fourth consecutive day of decreases
• We continue to track above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 31 days and have been tracking above Italy for the past 14 days.
• We are approximately 13.5 days behind Italy’s numbers (unchanged from yesterday)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top