The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Really liking Billy and Bears run downs here. I probably don’t know how to interpret the data but it’s good to see cold hard facts rather than political fluff. Especially when they both mention trends. Thanks guys
Unfortunately Billy's figures do not take account of the differences in population & so his trends are skewed. (There is also the problem of which deaths are actualy being counted)

Using deaths per million & time since 50th death our current figure has been reached approximately 7 days ahead of Italy and approximately 10 days behind Spain.
 

SmallTown

Well-known member
Unfortunately Billy's figures do not take account of the differences in population & so his trends are skewed. (There is also the problem of which deaths are actualy being counted)

Using deaths per million & time since 50th death our current figure has been reached approximately 7 days ahead of Italy and approximately 10 days behind Spain.
It’s handy for trending. I tend to keep comparisons away from it, just see the results for our country. The reason is Billy’s data are only comparing us against another two of the worst countries in the world. I think we can just say that we are doing worse then most so just concentrate on our own trends
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,186 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 1,452
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 5.3%, following 6.7% decrease yesterday (and 5th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 25.1% lower than one week ago and 45.0% lower than two weeks ago
• 210 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 268 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 2.3%, following 1.4% decrease yesterday (and 17th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 23.3% lower than one week ago and 37.6% lower than two weeks ago
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
As you can see, I've added a couple more UK based metrics in, looking at longer-term trends in 7-day averages, and removed the international comparisons.

I do have some data on deaths per million and/or days since x deaths per million, which I could use to add something into the daily update if people would find that of use? Just let me know.
 

bear66

Well-known member
As you can see, I've added a couple more UK based metrics in, looking at longer-term trends in 7-day averages, and removed the international comparisons.

I do have some data on deaths per million and/or days since x deaths per million, which I could use to add something into the daily update if people would find that of use? Just let me know.
I think we're almost out on our own now and it's our own return to normality that is of most interest. Do you have access to the graph showing 'actual daily deaths' data as, although it's way out for the past few days, it's a good view of how well we're tracking down?
 

SmallTown

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,186 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 1,452
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 5.3%, following 6.7% decrease yesterday (and 5th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 25.1% lower than one week ago and 45.0% lower than two weeks ago
• 210 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 268 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 2.3%, following 1.4% decrease yesterday (and 17th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 23.3% lower than one week ago and 37.6% lower than two weeks ago
Seven day average is really useful. Especially today as we have three “under reporting” bank holiday/weekend days
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
I think we're almost out on our own now and it's our own return to normality that is of most interest. Do you have access to the graph showing 'actual daily deaths' data as, although it's way out for the past few days, it's a good view of how well we're tracking down?
Do you mean the NHS England data. If so, yes I use that for the South Tees and North Tees NHS Trust daily updates and then pull the all England data through into my own spreadsheet. The problem is that none of the devolved administrations publish data in the same format, so you’re still relying on the numbers announced daily for each of those.

PHE publish a combined spreadsheet every day, but it has the same flaw for the devolved administrations. In addition, unlike NHS England, they change the cell references every day, making it much harder to just pull the data through to your own spreadsheet.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Do you mean the NHS England data. If so, yes I use that for the South Tees and North Tees NHS Trust daily updates and then pull the all England data through into my own spreadsheet. The problem is that none of the devolved administrations publish data in the same format, so you’re still relying on the numbers announced daily for each of those.

PHE publish a combined spreadsheet every day, but it has the same flaw for the devolved administrations. In addition, unlike NHS England, they change the cell references every day, making it much harder to just pull the data through to your own spreadsheet.
OK, thanks for that. Perhaps England is all that matters (for most on here) these days as the four countries begin to diverge.
 
Are the figures split into areas?

We're hearing about the different stages the virus is at across the UK. The rate of infection varies across England as well as across the country. Is there any way that we can assess when it's becoming safer locally, which would be more relevant to those returning to work.
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Are the figures split into areas?

We're hearing about the different stages the virus is at across the UK. The rate of infection varies across England as well as across the country. Is there any way that we can assess when it's becoming safer locally, which would be more relevant to those returning to work.
That is where Spain has an advantage. We have strong provincial boundaries. With the stats gathered per province. With the police stopping movement between the 50 provinces.
 
I saw some figures published in the Northern Echo last week, splitting this area up, roughly by political wards, showing deaths so far in each but that's all I've seen.

The Spanish system would be useful but I'd like to see it even more localised and published regularly.
 

kuepper

Well-known member
Saw on Andrew Marr this morning that there is 10,000 dying every week above comparable averages on past years. It is not a fluke or a one off. That is 10,000 who have nothing about Covid-19 on their death certificates. That is an incredible figure. Since lockdown 60,000ish people have died some in unexplained circumstances. Even if 20% were Covid related that pushes our total above 40,000 and growing by the day. Yet some want to get out and about and help its spread even further.
that's why statisticians prefer the 'excess deaths' number (the actual total number of all registered deaths from the start of the problem compared to the average number of registered deaths over last 5 years in the same period) as the figure that best reflects the impact in terms of fatalities. The total death stats lags a bit behind because of delays in registration, I think currently it was 43000 excess deaths but FT model this and suggest excess deaths up to May 11 to be 56800
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
I saw some figures published in the Northern Echo last week, splitting this area up, roughly by political wards, showing deaths so far in each but that's all I've seen.

The Spanish system would be useful but I'd like to see it even more localised and published regularly.
The government publishes data on infections at an upper authority level, which Bear collates and posts daily for Teesside and the South Tees part of North Yorkshire on this thread:

https://fmttmboro.com/index.php?threads/are-the-government-massaging-the-death-rate.1891/page-18

NHS England publishes daily new deaths data at an NHS Trust level. I post that info daily for both South Tees Hospitals NHS Trust and North Tees & Hartlepool NHS Trust on the same thread.

EDIT - should have added, the NHS England data is for hospital based deaths only. The more wide ranging data, which covers all deaths that have Covid-19 on the death certificate, is published weekly by the ONS on their website (which is where the interactive map that you've seen in the Northern Echo is also located). The map can be viewed here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...rchand17april#middle-layer-super-output-areas
 
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spanishman

Well-known member
I saw some figures published in the Northern Echo last week, splitting this area up, roughly by political wards, showing deaths so far in each but that's all I've seen.

The Spanish system would be useful but I'd like to see it even more localised and published regularly.
We get something published from time to time by health districts within provinces. In a small number of cases nationally autonomous regions (one or a group of provinces) have been allowed to go to phase 1 excluding a small number of health districts in the region. A little bit more difficult to police I would guess.
 

spanishman

Well-known member
that's why statisticians prefer the 'excess deaths' number (the actual total number of all registered deaths from the start of the problem compared to the average number of registered deaths over last 5 years in the same period) as the figure that best reflects the impact in terms of fatalities. The total death stats lags a bit behind because of delays in registration, I think currently it was 43000 excess deaths but FT model this and suggest excess deaths up to May 11 to be 56800
There is an organisation called EUROMOMO that tracks excess deaths across Europe. I have published some of their charts on another thread. https://fmttmboro.com/index.php?threads/excess-deaths-down-a-little-in-the-uk.3292/
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 12 May, there have been 2,007,146 tests, with 85,293 tests on 11 May.

1,460,517 people have been tested, of which 226,463 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 11 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 32,692 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 27,171.

An increase of 627 deaths in all settings following three low 'weekend' days.

There's an increase of 1.5% in positive tests, 40% of which are the more serious pillar 1.
 
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