The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,352 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 1,186
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 6.5%, following 5.3% decrease yesterday (and 6th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 29.0% lower than one week ago (from 25.1% lower yesterday) and 45.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 45.0% lower yesterday)
• 627 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, up from 210 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 2.0%, following 2.3% decrease yesterday (and 18th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 20.8% lower than one week ago (from 23.3% lower yesterday) and 35.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 37.6% lower yesterday)
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 13 May, there have been 2,094,209 tests, with 87,063 tests on 12 May.

1,522,258 people have been tested, of which 229,705 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 12 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 33,186 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 27,496.

1.4% increase in new positives. 45% of these are Pillar 1.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,505 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 1,352
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 4.3%, following 6.5% decrease yesterday (and 7th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 32.6% lower than one week ago (from 29.0% lower yesterday) and 43.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 45.8% lower yesterday and 37.3% lower 7 days ago)
• 494 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 627 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 4.7%, following 2.0% decrease yesterday (and 19th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 21.8% lower than one week ago (from 20.8% lower yesterday) and 38.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 35.7% lower yesterday and 35.2% lower 7 days ago)
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
You may have seen mention in the news about the National Statistician, Ian Diamond, stating he was worried about the prospect of a second wave if restrictions are eased too quickly, when he was giving evidence to a parliamentary committee today. He was particularly stating that the rate of infections was still comparatively high.

Obviously, I don't know the precise data he was basing this upon, but it did remind me of this graph showing the absolute numbers of confirmed cases over time in the five largest European countries. The UK is the blue line.

1589390224691.png
 

Laughing

Well-known member
Billy, do your figures support Whitty who claims the number of deaths will half every 10 days? That does sound about right to me, but I have done no working out.
 

Erimus74

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,505 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 1,352
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 4.3%, following 6.5% decrease yesterday (and 7th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 32.6% lower than one week ago (from 29.0% lower yesterday) and 43.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 45.8% lower yesterday and 37.3% lower 7 days ago)
• 494 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 627 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 4.7%, following 2.0% decrease yesterday (and 19th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 21.8% lower than one week ago (from 20.8% lower yesterday) and 38.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 35.7% lower yesterday and 35.2% lower 7 days ago)
That's great Billy, have to say your posts are getting better by the day, thank you for the daily updates & bear, keep em coming 👍
 
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Billy Horner

Well-known member
Yeah but that's just cos we are testing more now isn't it ?
That wouldn't explain why we've overtaken Germany and Italy, both of whom have conducted more tests than the UK. As of yesterday, Italy had conducted 2.67m tests compared with 2m in the UK. The data I have for Germany is over a week out of date (total test numbers; confirmed cases is as of today) but, even by then, they had completed 2.75m tests!

France has completed fewer than 1m tests though, so your point is valid with respect to them.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Billy, do your figures support Whitty who claims the number of deaths will half every 10 days? That does sound about right to me, but I have done no working out.
I wouldn't say they're halving every 10 days at the moment, but perhaps are moving in that direction. Currently, the rolling 7-day average is falling by just under 40% every fortnight. That rate is increasing slightly (one week ago it had fallen by 35% in fortnight), but it's a little way from a 50% reduction yet (and that's over 14 rather than 10 days).
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Actually, I've just worked it out using the compound interest formula.

At the current rate of reduction over the past 14 days, the 7-day average for new deaths is reducing by 26% over 10 days. If you use the rate of reduction in the past 7 days, the 10 day rate of reduction would be 32.5%.
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 14 May, there have been 2,219,281 tests, with 126,064 tests on 13 May.

1,593,902 people have been tested, of which 233,151 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 13 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 33,614 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 27,776.

1.4% increase in positive tests. 45% of which are Pillar 1.

Care home deaths seem to be falling quickly. 280 out of 428 deaths in hospital. I hope this isn't just because of the lack of testing in care homes.
 
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