The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,543 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, slightly up from yesterday's 1,505
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 8.0%, following 4.3% decrease yesterday (and 8th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 35.9% lower than one week ago (from 32.6% lower yesterday) and 46.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 43.5% lower yesterday and 39.3% lower 7 days ago)
• 428 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 494 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 3.6%, following 4.7% decrease yesterday (and 20th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 22.0% lower than one week ago (from 21.8% lower yesterday) and 39.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 38.3% lower yesterday and 34.2% lower 7 days ago)
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Care home deaths seem to be falling quickly. 280 out of 428 deaths in hospital. I hope this isn't just because of the lack of testing in care homes.
Unfortunately, I think it probably is the latter as you suggest.

If you look at the difference between daily reported deaths in all settings and in hospitals since the first reported death, then the average (mean) difference is 86 per day. The median difference is 53 per day. Even if you only look at the last 4 weeks, the mean difference has been 131 per day and the median 148 (which is today's difference).

Given that the ONS reported that 10,000 care home residents had died by 1st May with Covid-19 on their death certificates, you would have needed a mean difference of 180 per day since the first reported death to achieve that number by then (and that's assuming that all non-hospital deaths are in care homes when, in reality, they will include deaths at home, prison, etc.). The difference between total deaths in all settings by 1st May and total hospital reported deaths was 4,034 so an under-reporting of at least 150%.

There was a report yesterday (can't remember where) stating that still only 5% of care home residents have been tested. This is despite the government announcing a month ago that they would all be tested, including those without symptoms.
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 15 May, there have been 2,353,078 tests, with 133,784 tests on 14 May.

1,663,492 people have been tested, of which 236,711 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 14 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 33,998 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 28,010.

1.5% increase in positive tests today.
 

kuepper

Well-known member
Hancock tells everyone today 133,784 tests, but actually by their own figures only 69,590 people were tested. Never, ever by their own statistics have there been more than 73,500 people tested in one day.....

40727 kits sent out counted as actual tests yesterday - So this is how they're gong to lie about reaching 200,000

FT estimate excess deaths to now be 61,200. Of these 51,441 have occurred while the rest are estimates from roughly the past two weeks
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,407 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 1,543
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 6.5%, following 8.0% decrease yesterday (and 9th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 36.5% lower than one week ago (from 35.9% lower yesterday) and 47.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 46.0% lower yesterday and 40.5% lower 7 days ago)
• 384 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 428 yesterday
• The United Kingdom passes 500 deaths per million population, the 4th country in the world to do so (behind Belgium, Spain and Italy)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 8.1%, following 3.6% decrease yesterday (and 21st consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 26.1% lower than one week ago (from 22.0% lower yesterday) and 41.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 39.8% lower yesterday and 36.9% lower 7 days ago)
 

Erimus74

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,407 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 1,543
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 6.5%, following 8.0% decrease yesterday (and 9th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 36.5% lower than one week ago (from 35.9% lower yesterday) and 47.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 46.0% lower yesterday and 40.5% lower 7 days ago)
• 384 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 428 yesterday
• The United Kingdom passes 500 deaths per million population, the 4th country in the world to do so (behind Belgium, Spain and Italy)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 8.1%, following 3.6% decrease yesterday (and 21st consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 26.1% lower than one week ago (from 22.0% lower yesterday) and 41.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 39.8% lower yesterday and 36.9% lower 7 days ago)
Thanks for these updates Billy (y)
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 16 May, there have been 2,489,563 tests, with 136,486 tests on 15 May.

1,742,028 people have been tested, of which 240,161 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 15 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 34,466 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 28,270.

1.4% increase in positives today.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,546 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 1,407
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 1.3%, following 6.5% decrease yesterday (and 10th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 32.8% lower than one week ago (from 36.5% lower yesterday) and 46.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 47.9% lower yesterday and 42.7% lower 7 days ago)
• 468 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, up from 384 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings increases by 4.4%, following 8.1% decrease yesterday (and following 21 consecutive daily decreases)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 16.7% lower than one week ago (from 26.1% lower yesterday) and 36.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 41.6% lower yesterday and 38.7% lower 7 days ago)
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 17 May, there have been 2,580,769 tests, with 91,206 tests on 16 May.

1,818,712 people have been tested, of which 243,695 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 16 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 34,636 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 28,417.

1.4% increase in positive tests. Just over 1000 Pillar 1 positive tests. The lowest figure since the peak.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,040 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 1,546
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 4.1%, following 1.3% decrease yesterday (and 11th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 31.0% lower than one week ago (from 32.8% lower yesterday) and 47.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 46.3% lower yesterday and 42.6% lower 7 days ago)
• 170 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 468 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 3.4%, following 4.4% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 18.4% lower than one week ago (from 16.7% lower yesterday) and 36.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 36.0% lower yesterday and 38.7% lower 7 days ago)
 
I reckon it is about two weeks until we dip under 50 odd deaths a day. (nb hospital deaths)
It was at that level that lockdown was instigated.
That was on the 7th, so projecting to 21st.

I'd like to be able to agree with you, but I'm afraid I think that's unlikely. We've seen from other countries (and indeed our own) that the death rate remains stubbornly high for a long time after the peak.
You were right Billy, current projection is 23rd.

Saturday's increase in hospital deaths of 147 was the lowest since the 25th March (156).
 
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Billy Horner

Well-known member
That was on the 7th, so projecting to 21st.



You were right Billy, current projection is 23rd.

Saturday's increase in hospital deaths of 147 was the lowest since the 25th March (156).
Things are definitely moving in the right direction, but this is the weekend effect again. Another low number for hospital deaths today (138), but will jump up again over the next 2/3 days.

It is possible that one or more of the days next weekend will hit 50 deaths, particularly as it includes a bank holiday. However, it will be a little while yet before we're averaging 50 per day or fewer (and that's just counting the hospital deaths).
 
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bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 18 May, there have been 2,682,716 tests, with 100,678 tests on 17 May.

1,887,051 people have been tested, of which 246,406 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 17 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 34,796 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 28,555.

1.1% increase in positive tests. Pillar 1 positives below 1000! Approximately 680 admissions to hospital.
 
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Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• Total number of NHS and key workers tested overtakes total number of hospital patients tested (although hospital patients still account for 71% of all positive tests)
• 990 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, slightly down from yesterday's 1,040
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 2.0%, following 4.1% decrease yesterday (and 12th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 28.6% lower than one week ago (from 31.0% lower yesterday) and 46.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 47.9% lower yesterday and 45.0% lower 7 days ago)
• 160 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, slightly down from 170 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 1.8%, following 3.4% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 18.0% lower than one week ago (from 18.4% lower yesterday) and 37.1% lower than two weeks ago (from 36.7% lower yesterday and 37.6% lower 7 days ago)
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 19 May, there have been 2,772,552 tests, with 89,784 tests on 18 May.

248,818 people have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 18 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 35,341 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 28,754.

1% increase in positive tests, 40% of which are Pillar 1.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,104 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 990
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 2.6%, following 2.0% decrease yesterday (and 13th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 25.7% lower than one week ago (from 28.6% lower yesterday) and 47.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 46.6% lower yesterday and 45.8% lower 7 days ago)
• 545 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, up from 160 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 3.0%, following 1.8% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 18.9% lower than one week ago (from 18.0% lower yesterday) and 35.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 37.1% lower yesterday and 35.7% lower 7 days ago)
 
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