The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 2,485 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 2,031
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 3.3%, following 0.8% increase yesterday
• 539 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 649 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 3.4%, following 3.5% decrease yesterday (and 13th consecutive daily decrease)
• We are tracking significantly above both Italy and Spain on a days since 100th death basis. We have been tracking above Italy for the past 36 days and above Spain for the past 16 days.
• We are approximately 1 day ahead Italy’s current numbers (from 0.5 days ahead yesterday)
• We are approximately 8 days ahead of Spain’s current numbers (from 7 days ahead yesterday)
 

HolgateCorner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 2,485 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 2,031
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 3.3%, following 0.8% increase yesterday
• 539 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 649 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 3.4%, following 3.5% decrease yesterday (and 13th consecutive daily decrease)
• We are tracking significantly above both Italy and Spain on a days since 100th death basis. We have been tracking above Italy for the past 36 days and above Spain for the past 16 days.
• We are approximately 1 day ahead Italy’s current numbers (from 0.5 days ahead yesterday)
• We are approximately 8 days ahead of Spain’s current numbers (from 7 days ahead yesterday)
Do you think the increase in infections is a statistical ‘blip‘ or is it a setback?
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Do you think the increase in infections is a statistical ‘blip‘ or is it a setback?
It's an increase from yesterday, but the 7-day average is still decreasing, so things still seem to be moving in the right direction.

Actually, I think yesterday was a bit of a blip, because the 7-day average actually increased slightly for the first time in over a fortnight. I think that was probably because the figure from 29th April (which yesterday's figure replaced in the 7-day average) was particularly low.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
I reckon it is about two weeks until we dip under 50 odd deaths a day.
It was at that level that lockdown was instigated.
I'd like to be able to agree with you, but I'm afraid I think that's unlikely. We've seen from other countries (and indeed our own) that the death rate remains stubbornly high for a long time after the peak.

If we look at Italy and Spain, they peaked respectively 19 days and 12 days before the United Kingdom. The UK is above both of these countries on both an absolute and days since 100th death basis, and has been for some time.

Italy is currently averaging approx. 300 deaths per day and Spain approx. 200 per day. Unfortunately, therefore, there is every reason to believe that the UK will be experiencing at least around those levels in two weeks' time.
 

Erimus74

Well-known member
It's an increase from yesterday, but the 7-day average is still decreasing, so things still seem to be moving in the right direction.

Actually, I think yesterday was a bit of a blip, because the 7-day average actually increased slightly for the first time in over a fortnight. I think that was probably because the figure from 29th April (which yesterday's figure replaced in the 7-day average) was particularly low.
That's what I want to hear Billy, moving in the right direction
 
I reckon it is about two weeks until we dip under 50 odd deaths a day.
I'd like to be able to agree with you, but I'm afraid I think that's unlikely.
Just extrapolating the linear decline from peak in the 4 & 7 day average of hospital deaths (rather than total deaths) and basically making a point that people & the papers are demanding an end to lockdown & we are two weeks (or even longer) from the level of deaths that precipitated the government instigating lockdown.
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9 am 8 May, there have been 1,631,561 tests. There were 97,029 tests on 7 May.

1,207,069 people have been tested and 211,364 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 7 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 31,241 have sadly died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 26,069.

About 2.2% increase in new positive tests.
 

Evil

Active member
Just a quick point, the way we record our data is different.

Also, deaths per capita is less than both Italy and Spain - a better way to represent the numbers, despite the numbers being **** no matter which way you look at it.

It's rubbish, but I think we need to contextualise better.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 2,109 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 2,485
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 5.6%, following 3.3% decrease yesterday
• 626 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, up from 539 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 2.9%, following 3.4% decrease yesterday (and 14th consecutive daily decrease)
• We are tracking significantly above both Italy and Spain on a days since 100th death basis. We have been tracking above Italy for the past 37 days and above Spain for the past 17 days.
• We are approximately 1.5 days ahead Italy’s current numbers (from 1 day ahead yesterday)
• We are approximately 8.5 days ahead of Spain’s current numbers (from 8 days ahead yesterday)
 

HolgateCorner

Well-known member
As of 9 am 8 May, there have been 1,631,561 tests. There were 97,029 tests on 7 May.

1,207,069 people have been tested and 211,364 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 7 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 31,241 have sadly died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 26,069.

About 2.2% increase in new positive tests.
This may be an obvious question but is the 400,000 difference due to those awaiting test results?
 

kuepper

Well-known member
I wish they'd make those figures more easily digestible.

Just checking my interpretation and maths Billy: 27,183 of those 'tests' are not actual 'tests' though are they, they're just what the govt have decided to include as 'tests' ie kits posted. So the actual tests carried out on human beings by all means is really 97,029-27,183= 69,846 correct?

Then if the actual number of people actually tested is 24290 (Pillar 1) + 31987 (Pillar 2) = 56277

So 56277 people have undertaken a total of 69846 tests between them. Why are so many multi-tested do we know?

I've also read tonight but don't know if it's true, that when a kit is sent out and when it is received counts as 2 'tests' ie sending out and receiving are separate entities and counted twice. Staggering if true but I can't see where to check
 
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Billy Horner

Well-known member
I wish they'd make those figures more easily digestible.

Just checking my interpretation and maths Billy: 27,183 of those 'tests' are not actual 'tests' though are they, they're just what the govt have decided to include as 'tests' ie kits posted. So the actual tests carried out on human beings by all means is really 97,029-27,183= 69,846 correct?

Then if the actual number of people actually tested is 24290 (Pillar 1) + 31987 (Pillar 2) = 56277

So 56277 people have undertaken a total of 69846 tests between them. Why are so many multi-tested do we know?
Your maths are right (although I would have calculated them slightly differently), although that's actually the maximum number of people who were actually tested.

According to the government, they tested 67,443 people through a total of 97,029 tests. Of those 67,443 people, 24,290 were under Pillar 1 and 43,153 under Pillar 2.

The total number of Pillar 2 tests was 59,170 which comprised 31,987 in-person tests and 27,183 which were delivered. Unfortunately, it's impossible to calculate how many people were tested under each of those individual routes. However, you can make some educated assumptions:

If you assume that every in-person test was for a different person, then the minimum number of people who could have been tested under the Pillar 2 delivery route is 11,166 (43,153 people tested under Pillar 2 minus 31,987 in-person tests). If you assume the other extreme, (i.e. that they count one individual per test posted out) then, obviously, the maximum number of people tested under the Pillar 2 delivery route was 27,183.

Therefore, the minimum number of people who were actually tested is 67,443 - 27,183 = 40,260.
The maximum number of people who were actually tested is 67,443 - 11,166 = 56,277.

The actual number will be somewhere in between.
 

kuepper

Well-known member
Cheers for that Billy. What about the late edit I probably did while you replied? : I've also read tonight but don't know if it's true, that when a kit is sent out and when it is received counts as 2 'tests' ie sending out and receiving are separate entities and counted twice. Staggering if true but I can't see where to check
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Cheers for that Billy. What about the late edit I probably did while you replied? : I've also read tonight but don't know if it's true, that when a kit is sent out and when it is received counts as 2 'tests' ie sending out and receiving are separate entities and counted twice. Staggering if true but I can't see where to check
Well, I was going to post (for balance) that as the government is counting tests at the point of posting them for delivery, they are presumably not counting them when they are returned and tested in a lab. Therefore, as they introduced the delivery route into Pillar 2 about 2 weeks ago, you would imagine they are testing quite a few swabs every day that have since been returned which (shouldn't) be included in the figures.

I haven't seen anything regarding what you are suggesting. I would be very surprised if that was the case, as it would be clear double counting and certainly wouldn't pass any form of audit.

EDIT - actually, I've just found this text in the explanatory notes:

Tests sent to individual at home or to satellite testing locations
These are counted when tests are dispatched and not at the time of processing in the laboratory. Tests are never double-counted. Tests counted in this way do not contribute towards the ‘people tested’ figure.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Hang on! If they're saying that tests sent to individuals at home or to satellite testing locations do not contribute towards the people tested figure, then the only tests which could count towards that would be all of the people tested under Pillar 1 plus the people who were tested under the in-person route in Pillar 2.

We know that 24,290 people were tested under Pillar 1 and the maximum number of people who could possibly have been tested under the Pillar 2 in-person route is 31,987 (the total number of tests). If you add those figures together you get 56,277 as you calculated.

But the government is saying that 67,443 people were tested. So where do the other 11,166 people come from?
 
FWIW two weeks ago # of tests was increasing by high 20k's a day & the # of new people tested was high 50%s.
Last week it was c.86k a day & the new people being tested was in the 70%s.

Ignore the 100k tests a day, ignore the relevence of whether testing people for it without formal quarantine & contact tracing does much, but we are testing more people and testing more new people and level of positives is staying relatively stable, 4-6k per day.
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am 9 May, there have been 1,728,443 tests, with 96,878 tests on 8 May.

1,270,408 people have been tested, of which 215,260 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 8 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 31,587 have sadly died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 26,339.

1.8% increase in positive tests yesterday, the majority key workers/ care homes.
 

kuepper

Well-known member
Hang on! If they're saying that tests sent to individuals at home or to satellite testing locations do not contribute towards the people tested figure, then the only tests which could count towards that would be all of the people tested under Pillar 1 plus the people who were tested under the in-person route in Pillar 2.

We know that 24,290 people were tested under Pillar 1 and the maximum number of people who could possibly have been tested under the Pillar 2 in-person route is 31,987 (the total number of tests). If you add those figures together you get 56,277 as you calculated.

But the government is saying that 67,443 people were tested. So where do the other 11,166 people come from?
did you solve that Q Billy?
 
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