Excess deaths in the UK and Europe (weekly euromomo data plus some ONS UK data)

spanishman

Well-known member
The story here on the Sky News site: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ecline-from-peak-new-figures-suggest-11983364

Here is a chart of z scores for excess deaths across Europe showing selected countries. From 2016 up to recently.

It will be interesting to see what happens with these charts when we have another week or two of figures.

In this case the trend (or shape of the chart) is more important. As a number of factors can have an impact on the Z scores themselves. So it could be inappropriate to compare Z scores across countries.
Euromomozscorestoweek17of2020.jpg
 
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I will look to produce this chart on a weekly basis for the next couple of weeks. To see whether the difference in trend continues when comparing England against the other countries and Europe.

Even then, it will still be early days for these numbers. As apparently they do get corrected over time.
 
I'm finding it v confusing generally with different announcements during the day and a lack of clarity by reporters who say 'in the country' without specifying whether they are quoting figures for England, England and Wales, or UK.Yesterday the total deaths figure for UK the previous day seemed to go down by about 2000 from what was being announced during the day to what was announced after 5pm, did some 'adjustment' take place like they did with the 100k target?

The excess deaths figure from the ONS's Nick Stripe seems to be the most definitive since it's actually from death registrations which ONS said yesterday were 11,539 more than normal in week ending April 24 (relating to deaths up to around April 20) To that date across the UK, there have now been 42,140 excess deaths . The modelling used by Chris Giles at the FT estimates excess deaths to 6th May to be 54,300
 
I'm finding it v confusing generally with different announcements during the day and a lack of clarity by reporters who say 'in the country' without specifying whether they are quoting figures for England, England and Wales, or UK.Yesterday the total deaths figure for UK the previous day seemed to go down by about 2000 from what was being announced during the day to what was announced after 5pm, did some 'adjustment' take place like they did with the 100k target?

The excess deaths figure from the ONS's Nick Stripe seems to be the most definitive since it's actually from death registrations which ONS said yesterday were 11,539 more than normal in week ending April 24 (relating to deaths up to around April 20) To that date across the UK, there have now been 42,140 excess deaths . The modelling used by Chris Giles at the FT estimates excess deaths to 6th May to be 54,300
It is all very confusing - including your last statement kuepper. Not knocking you,btw,but it amazes me how confident some can be in their analysis of what's going on. Perhaps I'm just too slow or idle to comprehend the available information!
 
It is all very confusing - including your last statement kuepper. Not knocking you,btw,but it amazes me how confident some can be in their analysis of what's going on. Perhaps I'm just too slow or idle to comprehend the available information!
One figure is from the ONS up to 24 April, the other is a model extrapolating data to yesterday. Covid-19 will not be the reason for all excess deaths, but there could be indirect reasons.
 
It is all very confusing - including your last statement kuepper. Not knocking you,btw,but it amazes me how confident some can be in their analysis of what's going on. Perhaps I'm just too slow or idle to comprehend the available information!
It’s not surprising though. I think you would need a degree in Applied maths and statistics to understand the relevance and meaning of some of this data.
 
I think the ONS is the most complete data but it lags behind by about a fortnight so it doesn't get mentioned on the news as much. The numbers you see on the news everyday are based on the data they have been given that day but it's too simple (date recorded vs actual date, covid vs all deaths etc.).
 
Here are the graphs for up to week 17. Still early days yet. However the trend in England seems different to Spain and Italy. The shape of the graphs are different. Hinting that something happened differently in the UK.

Data is very much subject to corrections. So not to be taken as a fact at the moment.
EuromomoExcessDeathsPublishedWeek18UpToWeek17.jpg
You can see details at https://www.euromomo.eu/
 
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Here are euromomo.com excess death stats for week 19. England still looking like a different shaped graph. With the peak looking to be a little wider. So taking longer to get down to close to 0.
EuromomoExcessDeathStats2020Week19.jpg
 
What I have found interesting about the UK graphs is how badly England are performing against the devolved regions.
 
Here are euromomo.com excess death stats for this week. England still looking like a different shaped graph. With the peak looking to be a little wider. So taking longer to get down to close to 0.
EuromomoExcessDeathsPublishedWeek19in2020.jpg
 
Here are the euromomo charts for this week.

The excess excess death charts this week. Still early days. However it looks like England is clearly different to the rest. With Scotland also a little that way. Please note the comments at the bottom of the charts.

Also note that this week I have cut it down to a shorter period of history. To provide greater focus on this spring in the charts.
EuromomoExcessDeathsPublishedWeek20in2020.jpg
 
It doesn't make good reading for those of us living in England.
I agree.

I guess that you cannot blame anything specifically as the cause. However it looks like England is, for some reason, having a trend where the excess excess deaths figure is not falling as quickly as in other countries.

It has to be said that these are still preliminary figures. So they could change when corrections come in.
 
Here are the euromomo charts for this week.

This week I have produced 2 charts side by side. To provide a little more focus on what looks like a longer and slightly higher tail on the England figures. What is perhaps good news is that the tail looks like it is now not as pronounced as it was before. As you can see, more recent data is subject to corrections (see shaded right end of the charts).
EuromomoExcessDeathsPublishedWeek21in2020.jpg
 
Here are the euromomo excess deaths charts for up to week 22. This week I have included a map of data across Europe, plus details for Spain, Italy and the UK.

Things to note are an upturn in excess details in Spain and a long tail of excess deaths in England.

Please note that this based based on preliminary data that is subject to future corrections.
EuromomoExcessDeathsPublishedWeek22in2020.jpg
 
Here are the euromomo excess deaths charts for up to week 23. I have included a map of data across Europe, plus details for Spain, Italy and the UK.

Things to note are:
- a recent upturn in excess deaths in Spain
- the longer tail of excess deaths in England has now reached a low level

Please note that this based based on preliminary data that is subject to future corrections.

EuromomoExcessDeathsPublishedWeek23in2020.jpg
 
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