The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Pak_Doo_Ik said:
That’s a little lower than what I expected to be honest, I really thought we could top 100k today, I assume that testing capacity has now been reached
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I was hoping it would be lower, as I thought tests would have been exhausted. Now I just think they were exhausted previous, are still exhausted in places which need them, but it's the positivity of them is climbing.

We need to figure out what this under reporting is, ASAP, but I can't see how they do that with it growing so quick. The antibody/ infection studies on a Friday are too slow, and things are changing too quickly.
 
boot boy ally said:
1,635,922 tests conducted, highest for six months
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I seen that on the dashboard on the top graph, but it's not replicated on the below. Not saying it's wrong mind, but maybe more people outside London are being tested where Omicron hasn't really got to yet. Hard to see as the data takes a while to be broken down.

There was a million LFT's done in England on the 15th, that's crazy.

One worrying thing I keep forgetting about is the dashboard for cases does not include reinfections, if someone has previously logged a PCR or LFT positive. They really need to start to include those.
 
Andy_W said:
I seen that on the dashboard on the top graph, but it's not replicated on the below. Not saying it's wrong mind, but maybe more people outside London are being tested where Omicron hasn't really got to yet. Hard to see as the data takes a while to be broken down.

There was a million LFT's done in England on the 15th, that's crazy.

One worrying thing I keep forgetting about is the dashboard for cases does not include reinfections, if someone has previously logged a PCR or LFT positive. They really need to start to include those.
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Your wish answered
https://twitter.com/x/status/1471248608443912199

Although they have been issuing them weekly for ages
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 93,045 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 88,376
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 7.9% to 68,176 per day, following 9.3% increase yesterday (and 16th daily increase in the past 17 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 38.6% higher than one week ago (from 31.4% higher yesterday) and 52.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 41.8% higher yesterday and 11.3% higher 7 days ago)
• 111 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 146 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 1.1% to 113.3 per day, following 0.2% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 4.6% lower than one week ago (from 6.1% lower yesterday) and 4.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 5.4% lower yesterday and 5.2% lower 7 days ago)

Record numbers again today, but maybe not at the level people may have expected. My guess would be that the availability of testing (in the right locations) is limiting the number of positive test results.

One week ago, the 7-day average for PCR tests conducted was 485,605. Today, despite the rapid growth in cases and public knowledge of Omicron symptoms, that number has only grown to 514,548 (+6%).
 
Billy Horner said:
Today's headline analysis:

• 93,045 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 88,376
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 7.9% to 68,176 per day, following 9.3% increase yesterday (and 16th daily increase in the past 17 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 38.6% higher than one week ago (from 31.4% higher yesterday) and 52.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 41.8% higher yesterday and 11.3% higher 7 days ago)
• 111 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 146 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 1.1% to 113.3 per day, following 0.2% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 4.6% lower than one week ago (from 6.1% lower yesterday) and 4.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 5.4% lower yesterday and 5.2% lower 7 days ago)

Record numbers again today, but maybe not at the level people may have expected. My guess would be that the availability of testing (in the right locations) is limiting the number of positive test results.

One week ago, the 7-day average for PCR tests conducted was 485,605. Today, despite the rapid growth in cases and public knowledge of Omicron symptoms, that number has only grown to 514,548 (+6%).
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Cheers Billy. It is very much appreciated by the lazy beggars who can't be bothered doing their own research... Like me.
 
Billy Horner said:
Today's headline analysis:

• 93,045 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 88,376
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 7.9% to 68,176 per day, following 9.3% increase yesterday (and 16th daily increase in the past 17 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 38.6% higher than one week ago (from 31.4% higher yesterday) and 52.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 41.8% higher yesterday and 11.3% higher 7 days ago)
• 111 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 146 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 1.1% to 113.3 per day, following 0.2% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 4.6% lower than one week ago (from 6.1% lower yesterday) and 4.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 5.4% lower yesterday and 5.2% lower 7 days ago)

Record numbers again today, but maybe not at the level people may have expected. My guess would be that the availability of testing (in the right locations) is limiting the number of positive test results.

One week ago, the 7-day average for PCR tests conducted was 485,605. Today, despite the rapid growth in cases and public knowledge of Omicron symptoms, that number has only grown to 514,548 (+6%).
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Looks like we get to break the 100k barrier on Monday 😖
 
Laughing said:
It's early days still but deaths are still trending down. Watching with great interest to see what happens in the next 2 to 3 weeks. I say interest, trepidation would be more accurate.
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Yeah, same, I find the numbers very interesting, but really dislike what they mean.

England in Red is only 4 days behind London (Blue), so next week is when it's going to get really messy for cases, we'll be at 90% Omicron in England on Monday, London is already there. Only caveat to to that, is London is already "most" of England's cases, so the two will trend in line when it's low in the rest of the places. The longer those lines stay on track, the worse it is mind.

1639763914402.png
 
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How’s the hospitalisation rate, I know there is lag between infection and hospitalisation but are we seeing any signs that it’s increasing in the same way cases are, say in London for example?
 
Pak_Doo_Ik said:
How’s the hospitalisation rate, I know there is lag between infection and hospitalisation but are we seeing any signs that it’s increasing in the same way cases are, say in London for example?
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Hard to say on the rate, as the numbers of infections aren't really known, as loads get missed.

They're starting to curve up though, and pretty much double what they were two weeks ago.

1639764272693.png


So the current hospitalisations are likely based on cases from a week ago, when cases were around 10k, but now they're on mind 25k (more like 50k as those grey boxes below aren't finished). I expect London Hospitalisations to be 5x the 200 we're on now, by same time next week.
1639764420689.png


*note, the grey bars are not done with, they're only going to get revised up, filling up from the left each day (it will always appear like they're going down).
 
Andy_W said:
Hard to say on the rate, as the numbers of infections aren't really known, as loads get missed.

They're starting to curve up though, and pretty much double what they were two weeks ago.

View attachment 29687


So the current hospitalisations are likely based on cases from a week ago, when cases were around 10k, but now they're on mind 25k (more like 50k as those grey boxes below aren't finished). I expect London Hospitalisations to be 5x the 200 we're on now, by same time next week.
View attachment 29688


*note, the grey bars are not done with, they're only going to get revised up, filling up from the left each day (it will always appear like they're going down).
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That makes sobering reading Andy.
 
Laughing said:
That makes sobering reading Andy.
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Hard to be positive until we know more I suppose.

Not many are saying we couldn't peak 10x the peak infections from Jan 21 now, and although vax takes that hospitalisation down 90%, it would still be the same 4k in ICU (for a very short period), unless the mass case growth stays in the young.

I'm hoping the infection is more like 7x, and the cases being mainly young effectively halve that again, so we end up ~1.5k in ICU max.

Don't think the 4 day difference between London and the UK is enough, London will still be high and not on the way down, when the rest of the UK peaks.
 
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Andy_W said:
Hard to be positive until we know more I suppose.

Not many are saying we couldn't peak 10x the peak infections from Jan 21 now, and although vax takes that hospitalisation down 90%, it would still be 4k in ICU for a short period, unless the mass case growth stays in the young.

I'm hoping the infection is more like 7x, and the cases being mainly young effectively halve that again, so we end up ~1.5k in ICU max.

Don't think the 4 day difference between London and the UK is enough, London will still be high and not on the way down, when the rest of the UK peaks.
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How do you know all this stuff Andy do you do this sort of thing for a living ?
 
Nobby_Barnes said:
How do you know all this stuff Andy do you do this sort of thing for a living ?
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Nothing to do with medicine or whatever, but lots to do with numbers/ analysis/ strategy etc.

But generally in all walks of life I analyse and research the crap out of everything (to the point of OCD), even more so about things that I find interesting, largely reading a lot from other people who know way, way, way more than me from people who have hovered around the "covid centre" for the passed two years.

Understanding what is going to happen is quite important for my business, more so than being picky about how it's run etc, same for investing etc, can get a better return if you've a better idea of what's going on, even if it's best guess.
 
Andy_W said:
Nothing to do with medicine or whatever, but lots to do with numbers/ analysis/ strategy etc.

But generally in all walks of life I analyse and research the crap out of everything (to the point of OCD), even more so about things that I find interesting, largely reading a lot from other people who know way, way, way more than me from people who have hovered around the "covid centre" for the passed two years.

Understanding what is going to happen is quite important for my business, more so than being picky about how it's run etc, same for investing etc, can get a better return if you've a better idea of what's going on, even if it's best guess.
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It’s very much appreciated Andy and you explain everything in way that even a layman like me can understand. Many thanks to your good self and of course @Billy Horner for keeping us updated.

To keep myself sane I’m still clinging to the hope that it’s mainly infecting the younger age groups and hospitalisations, although will obviously increase, have a chance of stopping below the levels seen last year (pre mass vaccination).
 
Pak_Doo_Ik said:
It’s very much appreciated Andy and you explain everything in way that even a layman like me can understand. Many thanks to your good self and of course @Billy Horner for keeping us updated.

To keep myself sane I’m still clinging to the hope that it’s mainly infecting the younger age groups and hospitalisations, although will obviously increase, have a chance of stopping below the levels seen last year (pre mass vaccination).
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Ah cool, I appreciate that (y)

All I'm trying to do is clarify why some assumptions shouldn't be made, and provide some brief summaries without going OTT (and without asking everyone to read 1000 twitter threads). Most might find it boring but I find it quite interesting, and it's really relevant for me to learn it anyway. Learning what is going on in the world is extremely crucial to me, and this is no 1 at the minute, I'll be back on Brexit by Feb!

I still have a lot of hope, that even if there is a big peak, it will be extremely short (as in a week or two per location) and then a very rapid decline (per area). As fast as this thing goes up, is how fast it will come down. It can't/ won't be a long drawn out process as we will get to HIT very quickly, we just don't want overspill.

Not trying to be negative with some posts, but don't want people to get carried away that we will just sail through this with 100k infections a day, and 500 hospitalisations, as it's just not going to happen. We're already 5x passed the 100k infections already with only London massively effected at the min.

My main concern is that we don't max out ICU (even short term), as if we go over that then the fatality rate will increase dramatically, which is excess we could really plan to avoid. I think the public have took it into their own hands though, and loads will be doing a lot less this next week, than they had been planning to a month ago. It should dull the peak, and spread it quite a bit. There will be a big ramp around new year (a week on from crimbo I expect), as loads will have seen their families and will probably start going out more again.
 
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