Posted this on the footy cancelled thread but might be better to post here for you guys who look at the stats every day:
In SA the hospitalisation rate is 38 in 1000 - so 3.8%. We are looking at 1,000,000 infections by the weekend so potentially a 38,000 hospitalisations. We currently have 7,673 in hospital now. I can see why they are worried.
Am I wildly wrong about hospitalisations here?
I'll look into that later when I've got a bit more time, but that Hospitalisation rate seems high, considering they've had 75% infected and 25% vax (with crossover in those)? Where is that coming from? I thought hospitalisation was typically 10% pre vax, but more like 1% post vax, but not checked those numbers recently. Our numbers will be skewed by younger folk being the majority of infection.
That 78k reported yesterday, is from the 14th, we've moved on two days since then (for all of today), so more like 150k now (if the testing can keep up, which it won't), but the issue is, as this is spreading so quick and there's been problems getting tests in high infection areas, it's likely we're now under-reporting on a scale not seen since early/mid 2000. Some think we're under-reporting now by 80%, so we could be at 750k today already.
Even at 500k today, that's around 700k Friday, and around 1m on Saturday. As Friday and Saturday would normally be big transmission days for the 20-29 age group which was driving this (but has now spilled over to other age groups).
1m a day, by the weekend looks possible based on the assumed doubling numbers, but it it should burn out/ slow down extremely quickly, as there's not enough immediately susceptible contacts to infect. Also behaviour will massively change once more people realise that 78k number, and the implications of it.
1m a day is a 10k/ 7 day case rate, for the whole uk, and we've not had anything more than 2k/100k localised yet, so it's still quite hard to believe.
People should hopefully be aware, that an infection on Fri/Sat, won't show up till Sun/ Mon (19th/20th), so they should end up isolating over Christmas (to the 29th/30th). People won't want to be having to isolate over Crimbo, or hopefully not risk infecting their parents, so I think this weekend could end up quite quiet (out and about). People will still have gatherings though, as for some reason people seem to think they can't catch it off asymptomatic friends and family.
Hard to say whether testing yesterday (15th) could keep up with the 14th, so todays numbers might actually go down significantly or appear level (albeit infection won't have).