This is something we desperately need to know, but the answer seems to be, “not yet”.Are people being hospitalised with omicron? Genuine question.
The lag is too great just yet I reckon EG. Give it time thoughAre people being hospitalised with omicron? Genuine question.
Thanks Billy!Today's headline analysis:
• 45,691 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 51,459
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.8% to 48,128 per day, following 2.8% increase yesterday (and 7th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 12.1% higher than one week ago (from 9.1% higher yesterday) and 13.2% higher than two weeks ago (from 13.2% higher yesterday and 9.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 180 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 41 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 2.5% to 122.4 per day, following 0.7% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 3.0% higher than one week ago (from 0.2% lower yesterday) and 12.4% lower than two weeks ago (from 18.6% lower yesterday and 19.6% lower 7 days ago)
7-day average for new cases now at its highest level since 16th January.
Not really, not in SA, but most of the cases are young, and they've nearly all had Delta or other strains before, so we wouldn't expect that anyway, plus the lag is massive when cases rise so fast.Are people being hospitalised with omicron? Genuine question.
The next wave is going to be very interesting in terms of how deadly omicron is and how well vaccinations work against it. We are on a knife edge at the minute and omicron could make things better, if it becomes dominant, or worse, if it turns out to be even if a little less deadly but much more infectious..Not really, not in SA, but most of the cases are young, and they've nearly all had Delta or other strains before, so we wouldn't expect that anyway, plus the lag is massive when cases rise so fast.
It's not been means tested with older people, against vax/ unvaxed and without the lag yet, so still some learning to be done.
I think this high sustained Delta for ages and then Omicron taking over end of December/ Jan is going to effectively force us out of it, but it could get really messy for the NHS for a short period, it's hard to know what the cost will be, but there's little chance of stopping it.The next wave is going to be very interesting in terms of how deadly omicron is and how well vaccinations work against it. We are on a knife edge at the minute and omicron could make things better, if it becomes dominant, or worse, if it turns out to be even if a little less deadly but much more infectious..
I really didn't think we would be living with this for 2 years. I genuinely thought by this winter we would be well and truly coming out the other side.
I do like your optimism and largely share your viewpoint. The one thing that I view differently to you is the cyclic nature of the virus. Even with just delta we have seen peaks and troughs often for no real reason. It's this that tempers my optimism.I think this high sustained Delta for ages and then Omicron taking over end of December/ Jan is going to effectively force us out of it, but it could get really messy for the NHS for a short period, it's hard to know what the cost will be, but there's little chance of stopping it.
The good thing is we've got loads of vax and prev infection coverage, and loads of hybrid immunity too, probably more than just about any country in the world (through good vax, and poor controls). This might not help much against new infection of Omicron, but it should really help reduce the hospitalisations/ severity.
The issue is, if cases go 10x (for a short time) and hospitalisations halve what we're converting now, we're still going to be on ~3000 hospitalisations per day, albeit short lived and hopefully a short duration stay for those that need hospital care. It's the old saying that a small percent of a massive number, is still a very large number.
A lot of people (modelers) think if cases got really out of hand that there would be that may isolating, and taking their own precautions that it could be self limiting, to maybe 2-5x of Delta. It might not even escape as much for us, hard to say as it's not yet been really tested in a country like ours and SA is waaay different.
Lots of talk overnight about how protection from two jabs is quite compromised, as far as infection goes, but there seems very little effect on sever disease and hospitalisations. It's not so much that Omicron is weaker, just that practically everyone still has a cracking defence against hospitalisation. If Omicron had came first, we would have been totally screwed, and this could be a big problem for countries with low vax and or infection, effectively they could get all of their waves at once.
Transmittability is the real danger. Get back to the soothing messaging Andy.I think a lot of the cycles are to do with it running through age groups at different times, and then different waning and booster effects. There's no doubt a small amount of seasonality too, especially with the earlier waves, but as each new more transmissible strain has came, this has totally negated most of the seasonality for the swings. The seasonality will still have a big effect on how quick things grow and recede though, which is why Omicron is bad timing for us.
I can see us having a quiet January, activity wise.
This new strain from early calculations seems about as deadly as flu (after vax and previous infection protection), the issue is the transmissibility is off the scale compared to flu, so it comes all at once which is a lot harder for healthcare to manage.
This thread helps:Transmittability is the real danger. Get back to the soothing messaging Andy.
I heard Hancock this morning talking about a paper that was published in SA that he was very concerned about. Not read it yet, nor even looked at it, I am supposed to be working, but too much going on today to concentrate.This thread helps:
And in particular this post:
https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1468520484933275650
Looking like much more transmissible (bad news)
Brings down VE for hospitalisation in double vaxx by 10-14% (bad news, but could have been a hell of a lot worse)
Booster should overcome that VE hospitalisation loss (very good news, for us)
This could get very bad, very quickly, for those with less vaccines and less previous infection from the previous variants.
VE is based on 5 months on from having a second dose though (I think), so obv a lot of waning in there. Someone who has just had their second dose should still be quite well covered if they get Omicron soon after their second jab, or if they've already been infected previous.
Timing of 1st and 2nd jabs for those who are going to get hit with big waves is going to be key for a lot of the less developed countries.
That twitter summarises three reports (and links to them), and one of those is probably what Hancock was on about.I heard Hancock this morning talking about a paper that was published in SA that he was very concerned about. Not read it yet, nor even looked at it, I am supposed to be working, but too much going on today to concentrate.
Anywhoo have you read the report that Hancock was alluding to? A link would be great, if you have one.
I'll look at the twitter thread later today, cheers. Hancock mentioned the 40x less effective this morning on GMB.That twitter summarises three reports (and links to them), and one of those is probably what Hancock was on about.
There's loads of people losing their minds because "Pfizer is 40x less effective", but the reports don't mean it anywhere near how some of the public are perceiving it. Hancock also won't understand it 10% as much as those summarising the reports etc. Some big names have been sharing the summary too.
He's silly to do that on there, it's effectively scaremongering (for the UK), as 99% won't understand what it means. It might drive people away from vaccines and boosters as they might see that as reducing effectiveness from 98% to 18%, if they assume that's about deaths, and can do the maths on 98% - (40x 2%).I'll look at the twitter thread later today, cheers. Hancock mentioned the 40x less effective this morning on GMB.