The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 42,484 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 44,917
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.8% to 42,523 per day, following 1.8% increase yesterday (and 12th daily increase in the past 13 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 8.7% higher than one week ago (from 8.4% higher yesterday) and 24.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 22.0% higher yesterday and 2.3% lower 7 days ago)
• 165 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 45 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 4.8% to 139.7 per day, following 0.2% decrease yesterday (and 7th daily decrease in the past 9 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 5.5% lower than one week ago (from 5.2% lower yesterday) and 15.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 13.8% lower yesterday and 8.5% lower 7 days ago)

Discounting the bank holiday weekend in August, today's was the lowest number of new deaths reported on a Tuesday since 10th August.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
I love that chart Andy, it's impossible to ready anything into it though because it isn't clear what it is based on. I would assume, its based on hospitalizations per 100K and Infection rates. Who knows though.

I would imagine that the bar chart correlates incredibly closely with vaccination rates.
Yeah it will be a mix of vaccination/ boosters and infection plus whatever else, we've thankfully ticked the first two parts well, but unfortunately also ticked the latter part too.

This was the article, not had time to read it in full:
 
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Andy_W

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 42,484 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 44,917
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.8% to 42,523 per day, following 1.8% increase yesterday (and 12th daily increase in the past 13 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 8.7% higher than one week ago (from 8.4% higher yesterday) and 24.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 22.0% higher yesterday and 2.3% lower 7 days ago)
• 165 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 45 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 4.8% to 139.7 per day, following 0.2% decrease yesterday (and 7th daily decrease in the past 9 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 5.5% lower than one week ago (from 5.2% lower yesterday) and 15.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 13.8% lower yesterday and 8.5% lower 7 days ago)

Discounting the bank holiday weekend in August, today's was the lowest number of new deaths reported on a Tuesday since 10th August.
The daily numbers are not great (for cases), but that line is clearly bending/ levelling on the specimen dates, if that continues it's about as good a news as we can hope for, compared to a lot of the EU dealing with exponential growth. Extra good news on hospitalisations and deaths still trending down.

1637689026588.png

Something has recently changed with one of the labs though, so not sure how that is going to skew numbers
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 43,676 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 42,484
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.8% to 43,296 per day, following 1.8% increase yesterday (and 13th daily increase in the past 14 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 11.1% higher than one week ago (from 8.7% higher yesterday) and 27.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 24.5% higher yesterday and 1.8% lower 7 days ago)
• 149 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 165 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 5.3% to 132.3 per day, following 4.8% decrease yesterday (and 8th daily decrease in the past 10 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 9.4% lower than one week ago (from 5.5% lower yesterday) and 20.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 15.7% lower yesterday and 10.4% lower 7 days ago)
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Nice to see deaths still dropping despite 14 days of increasing infections. Hope that continues.
Yeah, they will and should stay ok as 50+, and even more 70+ are coming down, which is the brunt of where the deaths come from.

The infections and growth are again largely being driven by kids, and it's mainly the under 10's this time, as they were not as infected as the 10-19's earlier in Autumn/ Winter (week 41 spike, early October), and are now the only group with no/ low vaccination. The oldies would have been the least covered after that (waning), but they've now been boosted and we get more by the day, which is why they're dropping off in cases/ deaths.

This is the most recent graph I saw (yesterday), but there is one below this, breaking this down into smaller groups, with clearer/ different colour lines but it is using older data, and shows week numbers, rather than dates.

1637831983411.png

Week 45 goes to the 11th Nov, I can't find the most recent report, but think a new one comes out on Friday. 5-9 is now the highest growth, which you can just see showing up at the end, but 0-4 is also growing more than it ever has (from a low base).

1637832670348.png
We've seemingly turned the corner from max growth in kids, but they are still growing, so there's still enough kids to infect, but it's probably not going to get out of hand, as all lines are now trending down.

The case growth for England below, seems to have stopped now (or forecast to be stopping), and hit a ceiling, which is good because we've not used any restrictions to do that, it's likely just immunity increases through booster, vaccination, infection.

1637833930269.png

Scotland is already decreasing, which is even better, hopefully we follow suit.
1637834095244.png

It's Thursday though, and all bets are off on Thursday's as we can get some crazy numbers. Hopefully we were just on a post half term bounce.

<39k in England today, and that flattens our curve.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 47,240 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 43,676
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 0.1% to 43,358 per day, following 1.8% increase yesterday (and 14th daily increase in the past 15 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 9.5% higher than one week ago (from 11.1% higher yesterday) and 25.3% higher than two weeks ago (from 27.8% higher yesterday and 0.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 147 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, slightly down from 149 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 5.6% to 124.9 per day, following 5.3% decrease yesterday (and 9th daily decrease in the past 11 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 14.8% lower than one week ago (from 9.4% lower yesterday) and 23.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 20.0% lower yesterday and 13.8% lower 7 days ago)

10 million positive cases now reported in the United Kingdom.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 50,091 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 47,240
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.9% to 44,193 per day, following 0.1% increase yesterday (and 15th daily increase in the past 16 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 10.0% higher than one week ago (from 9.5% higher yesterday) and 24.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 25.3% higher yesterday and 5.8% higher 7 days ago)
• 160 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 147 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 0.3% to 125.3 per day, following 5.6% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 15.5% lower than one week ago (from 14.8% lower yesterday) and 19.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 23.2% lower yesterday and 13.3% lower 7 days ago)
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 50,091 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 47,240
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.9% to 44,193 per day, following 0.1% increase yesterday (and 15th daily increase in the past 16 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 10.0% higher than one week ago (from 9.5% higher yesterday) and 24.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 25.3% higher yesterday and 5.8% higher 7 days ago)
• 160 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 147 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 0.3% to 125.3 per day, following 5.6% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 15.5% lower than one week ago (from 14.8% lower yesterday) and 19.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 23.2% lower yesterday and 13.3% lower 7 days ago)
Not a lot to be positive about today, other than we're not at the October peak yet, healthcare is nowhere near as bad, and we're just in linear growth, not exponential.

Going to be an interesting next couple of weeks, from a numerical/ modelling/ winter expectation point of view. I just hope it gets better to give healthcare an easier ride, along with no increase in deaths too, or us way over excess.
 
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SmallTown

Well-known member
Not a lot to be positive about today, other than we're not at the October peak yet, healthcare is nowhere near as bad, and we're just in linear growth, not exponential.

Going to be an interesting next couple of weeks.
Damn...

You usually come up with a well reasoned positive to help calm the impact of the figures. I guess today was just bad.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Damn...

You usually come up with a well reasoned positive to help calm the impact of the figures. I guess today was just bad.
Haha, I just edited that last line too, as I realised that could be taken the wrong way.

It's difficult to be positive, in the face of the increases, especially for England:
1637960168143.png

Scotland are looking ok though, but they're actually above their October levels, albeit trending down:
1637960242452.png

Hard to tell if they're ahead of us, or behind us :unsure:

I still think it's going to level off soon on it's own (near the October peak in England), once the schools burn out. Hard to be so sure about that now though, so looking forward to seeing what the modellers have to offer over the coming weeks.

Obviously we may have Nu to come, but I don't see that as much of big deal for us with the high vax uptake/ previous infection. If that kicks off outside SA, then I can see loads of countries going to vax mandates.
 

SmallTown

Well-known member
Haha, I just edited that last line too, as I realised that could be taken the wrong way.

It's difficult to be positive, in the face of the increases, especially for England:
View attachment 28657

Scotland are looking ok though, but they're actually above their October levels, albeit trending down:
View attachment 28658

Hard to tell if they're ahead of us, or behind us :unsure:

I still think it's going to level off soon on it's own (near the October peak in England), once the schools burn out. Hard to be so sure about that now though, so looking forward to seeing what the modellers have to offer over the coming weeks.

Obviously we may have Nu to come, but I don't see that as much of big deal for us with the high vax uptake/ previous infection. If that kicks off outside SA, then I can see loads of countries going to vax mandates.
Thanks for that breakdown though. I'm not sure how I feel about nu. Obviously it has the potential to be bad but I don't think we can do much about it. Stopping southern African people coming here will just slow it down. It'll arrive on our shores at some point
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Thanks for that breakdown though. I'm not sure how I feel about nu. Obviously it has the potential to be bad but I don't think we can do much about it. Stopping southern African people coming here will just slow it down. It'll arrive on our shores at some point
It just buys time for vaccines/ boosters, which is good.

It also gives us more time to get more Delta, which may be less bad than Nu. But who knows, Nu may even be less lethal, virus often mutate that way.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
I hadn't checked the last couple of days case numbers as it had looked to be going in the wrong direction, and I don't pay much attention on weekends, but we seemingly had two unexpectedly low case numbers the last couple of days, for the UK, and for England.

This might be down to the reporting mind, as the specimen date graph still looks quite chunky. The reporting could be slower as we're probably looking at the PCR's more closely, watching for S-Gen dropout to try and catch/ spot Omicron. Depends whether they can process cases as positive/ negative, as fast, or whether they filter through later.

UK cases by date reported below:

1638182082000.png
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Looks good Andy, certainly at first glance. Let's hope there isn't delayed reporting.
Might even be lack of testing, due to the crap weather, or lack of transmission due to the crap weather, forgot about that. Not sure how bad everywhere else has been but it's been pretty nasty by the coast.

All should become clearer this week, but then we'll be saying we need to see the week after to see what it's doing, and so on, and so on. Then Omicron, and so on and so on.

Really hard to gauge at the minute but we're going to be running out of people to infect soon enough, or where the infections could be problematic for healthcare. Certainly doesn't look like we can sustain exponential growth for long, it's just oscillations.

A couple of weeks of masks should help some though, and when they do I reckon they will be here to stay until Christmas, no legitimate reason not to do that though.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
Good point about the weather. People not going for tests or staying at home could have a big impact, tho kids still had to go to school.

It will be interesting to see hospitalizations, particularly if omicron takes off.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Good point about the weather. People not going for tests or staying at home could have a big impact, tho kids still had to go to school.

It will be interesting to see hospitalizations, particularly if omicron takes off.
Yeah, that's the good thing, as boosters are going up and cases pretty level for the past 5 months Hospitalisations effectively can't go up, unless something gets drastically worse, which I don't think it will.
 
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