The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Nobby_Barnes

Well-known member
We can hope Andy. I wasnt expecting the reduction in cases in the first place, which was a pleasant surprise. I still feel that if we can't get booster vaccinations up to 500k a day, every day, we are going to struggle through winter.

I don't get the bit about replacing low days with high days on the 7 day average though. Are you referring to schools going back so next week we will be like for like?

That may be the case, I am yet to be convinced that we are not going to be having 100k cases per day after Christmas.
100k Ruddy hell I hope not Laughing...
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
I don't get the bit about replacing low days with high days on the 7 day average though. Are you referring to schools going back so next week we will be like for like?

That may be the case, I am yet to be convinced that we are not going to be having 100k cases per day after Christmas.
The 7 day averages still have "low" days in them (last one drops out tomorrow), so whilst we might not be having major day on day increases, the 7 day average will increase quickly, until those low days fall out the back end.

We won't get anywhere near 100k a day, it will burn out long before then. I'd be surprised if it didn't level off at 40k or 50k, whilst pockets of lesser hit areas get to their HIT.

The waning for under 50's and 40's is going to be less and less, oldies are being topped up and kids are riddled, I'm not sure how cases could have a sustained growth with all that.

Seasonality won't make much of a difference, not with delta, as the RO is too high. The "old covid" could have been that way, but not Delta.
 

Nobby_Barnes

Well-known member
The 7 day averages still have "low" days in them (last one drops out tomorrow), so whilst we might not be having major day on day increases, the 7 day average will increase quickly, until those low days fall out the back end.

We won't get anywhere near 100k a day, it will burn out long before then. I'd be surprised if it didn't level off at 40k or 50k, whilst pockets of lesser hit areas get to their HIT.

The waning for under 50's and 40's is going to be less and less, oldies are being topped up and kids are riddled, I'm not sure how cases could have a sustained growth with all that.

Seasonality won't make much of a difference, not with delta, as the RO is too high. The "old covid" could have been that way, but not Delta.
Thanks for putting my mind at rest Andy...I might put Laughing on my ignore list 🤣
 

Laughing

Well-known member
The 7 day averages still have "low" days in them (last one drops out tomorrow), so whilst we might not be having major day on day increases, the 7 day average will increase quickly, until those low days fall out the back end.

We won't get anywhere near 100k a day, it will burn out long before then. I'd be surprised if it didn't level off at 40k or 50k, whilst pockets of lesser hit areas get to their HIT.

The waning for under 50's and 40's is going to be less and less, oldies are being topped up and kids are riddled, I'm not sure how cases could have a sustained growth with all that.

Seasonality won't make much of a difference, not with delta, as the RO is too high. The "old covid" could have been that way, but not Delta.
That's all dependant in being close to the herd immunity. We may be but I don't think the vaccination is good enough to be included in herd immunity. As for seasonal. I don't think you can classify a virus as seasonal until after a pandemic when all other factors have been removed.

Hopefully you're right and I'm wrong. I guess we'll see.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
Didn't Ferguson or one of his buddies have us at 100k cases a day through September and October?
Not sure Randy. I did say 50k be the end of this month based on the way figures were rising. We probably won't get there given the school break seemed to have a really good dampening effect.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Didn't Ferguson or one of his buddies have us at 100k cases a day through September and October?
When was that? Back before removing restrictions? I think the modeller's really underestimated how much restrictions had actually already been lifted in peoples eyes, long before they were actually lifted. Everyone went bananas during the Euro's, I think they were expecting people to be more cautious.
Effectively the removal of restrictions didn't do much, as people had taken it into their own hands a month before then.

In either case that's likely modelled scenarios, with zero controls, wide variables, full movements etc, not predictions, far from that.

SPI-M went to modelling hospitalisations, rather than cases since summer, and at the minute we're well and truly at the top of the modelled scenarios, but a few seem to think that just means we've peaked earlier (which is what I think).


1637003938195.png

Just like Fergusons 4k deaths a day, back in March 20, in hindsight we could have hit that, had we done nothing.
 
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Andy_W

Well-known member
That's all dependant in being close to the herd immunity. We may be but I don't think the vaccination is good enough to be included in herd immunity. As for seasonal. I don't think you can classify a virus as seasonal until after a pandemic when all other factors have been removed.

Hopefully you're right and I'm wrong. I guess we'll see.
It's not just vaccination, it's people like me who have been out and about in work, pubs, restaurants and bars etc, double jabbed. I've probably been exposed about 50 times by now, and must have either had it unknowingly with zero symptoms, and no positive PCR's or LFD's, or just been exposed and fought it off without infection. I must be pretty immune by now, as immune as I can be, and there will be loads of under 50's like that. Here's hoping anyway!!!

Most older double jabbed people haven't been doing that, they've been more cautious, so they're not getting the same natural exposure on top, so they suffer from waning far more, and the kids had zero protection to start with.

I read how Andrew Lilico explained how the higher up R0 you go, the less seasonality plays effect, with the old R0 of 2-3 that is more likely to have more seasonality. But with Delta's R7-8 it effectively will just spread so fast, that the time of year doesn't make much difference. Most of the modellers agree with that. R0 top trumps seasons basically.

Kind of like how Flu with a low R0 (<2) doesn't work well outside of winter, so why summer is fine etc.

All seems to stack up mathematically to me, I think it will burn out soon, as much as it can, then we're just at endemic levels, which we will be stuck with for a good while yet. I think now it's just picking out pockets/ areas which got off lightly previous. I think now the more well off places/ areas are being hit, where as previously the least well of areas took the brunt.
 

Randy

Well-known member
Scandalous.
Thoughts Andy?

The times and the telegraph both reported this too but they are behind a paywall.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 37,243 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 39,705
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.5% to 39,133 per day, following 2.8% increase yesterday (and 6th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 14.6% higher than one week ago (from 12.5% higher yesterday) and 2.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 6.2% lower yesterday and 23.6% lower 7 days ago)
• 214 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 47 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 4.4% to 147.9 per day, following 0.9% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 10.8% lower than one week ago (from 9.1% lower yesterday) and 8.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 1.6% lower yesterday and 18.1% higher 7 days ago)
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 37,243 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 39,705
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.5% to 39,133 per day, following 2.8% increase yesterday (and 6th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 14.6% higher than one week ago (from 12.5% higher yesterday) and 2.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 6.2% lower yesterday and 23.6% lower 7 days ago)
• 214 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 47 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 4.4% to 147.9 per day, following 0.9% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 10.8% lower than one week ago (from 9.1% lower yesterday) and 8.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 1.6% lower yesterday and 18.1% higher 7 days ago)
The dashboard hasn't updated the "cases by date reported" graph, but I think this will mean we've been pretty flat for the week now, and that's the last day of "low numbers" booted out the 7 day average. So whilst it's not "good" its not really increased over the course of the last 7 days.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Actually, it has updated now, so this should work out better for the case rates from tomorrow, so that we're not heading for four week doubling and back to even keel, minor growth, or it was just a "bounce", from the HT lows.

1637082344770.png
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Case ratio looking like it could be heading back to near 1 tomorrow, which is not a bad result, for just after the second week after half term, using data from the first week back (which is a bit of a lag anyway). Anything around 39-40k tomorrow should get us near 1.

1637082623379.png
 
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Billy Horner

Well-known member
Case ratio looking like it could be heading back to near 1 tomorrow, which is not a bad result, for just after the second week after half term, using data from the first week back (which is a bit of a lag anyway). Anything under 40k tomorrow should get us near 1.

View attachment 28039

For the 7-day average to continue to increase, cases reported tomorrow would need to be higher than 39,329. The average is almost certainly going to be higher than when compared with one week previously, but tomorrow's reported number would need to be higher than 43,250 to make the average higher than when compared with two weeks previously, which is the point when you know you really do have a sustained trend on your hands.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
For the 7-day average to continue to increase, cases reported tomorrow would need to be higher than 39,329. The average is almost certainly going to be higher than when compared with one week previously, but tomorrow's reported number would need to be higher than 43,250 to make the average higher than when compared with two weeks previously, which is the point when you know you really do have a sustained trend on your hands.
Yeah I just checked that and edited my post, re the 39,329 but I opted for 39-40k as that red circle would be touching the1 line :LOL:

Was just looking at how much it was still growing a month ago, and considerably higher than we are now, but now looking relatively flat, that's a good sign.

Seems to be more of the primary school kids with the increases at the minute, and secondary isn't as bad as it was, delta is just finding the gaps in vaccine coverage/ infection now. Less case growth in the ages most at risk, which is great, no doubt down due to the boosters.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
For the 7-day average to continue to increase, cases reported tomorrow would need to be higher than 39,329. The average is almost certainly going to be higher than when compared with one week previously, but tomorrow's reported number would need to be higher than 43,250 to make the average higher than when compared with two weeks previously, which is the point when you know you really do have a sustained trend on your hands.
38,263, that puts the case rate below 1, so we're technically decreasing again (y)

Still too high mind, but I think/ hope it will gradually trend down from here. We might just be in oscillation territory mind.

Hospital admissions quickly heading down too, which is the best part.

Go boosters!
 
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Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 38,263 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 37,243
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 0.4% to 38,980 per day, following 1.5% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 15.1% higher than one week ago (from 14.6% higher yesterday) and 1.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 2.3% lower yesterday and 23.0% lower 7 days ago)
• 201 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 214 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 1.3% to 146.0 per day, following 4.4% decrease yesterday (and 7th decrease in the past 9 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 11.7% lower than one week ago (from 10.8% lower yesterday) and 10.4% lower than two weeks ago (from 8.5% lower yesterday and 14.6% higher 7 days ago)
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 46,807 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 38,263
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.6% to 39,609 per day, following 0.4% decrease yesterday (and 7th daily increase in the past 8 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 14.5% higher than one week ago (from 15.1% higher yesterday) and 0.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 1.8% lower yesterday and 18.0% lower 7 days ago)
• 199 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, slightly down from 201 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 0.4% to 146.6 per day, following 1.3% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 9.8% lower than one week ago (from 11.7% lower yesterday) and 13.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 10.4% lower yesterday and 7.4% higher 7 days ago)
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 46,807 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 38,263
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.6% to 39,609 per day, following 0.4% decrease yesterday (and 7th daily increase in the past 8 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 14.5% higher than one week ago (from 15.1% higher yesterday) and 0.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 1.8% lower yesterday and 18.0% lower 7 days ago)
• 199 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, slightly down from 201 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 0.4% to 146.6 per day, following 1.3% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 9.8% lower than one week ago (from 11.7% lower yesterday) and 13.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 10.4% lower yesterday and 7.4% higher 7 days ago)
That's a big jump, day on day, it's up nearly 30%, which is a massive change for a weekday, and 10% more than last Thursday :unsure:

We've not seen anything like that in months. Hopefully a big drop tomorrow, but if not who knows.

Big jump/ rapid increase in the 5-9 age group! The last data point on the below is over 5k (cliok it, it gets cropped by the thumbnail), the highest it has ever been I think.


But the rest at least still look like they're heading in the right direction, and those over 60's still declining, which is critical to get hospitalisations down, and the trend of those is still very much down, thankfully.

1637278995326.png
 
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