The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 44,242 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 46,807
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.4% to 40,161 per day, following 1.6% increase yesterday (and 8th daily increase in the past 9 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 13.1% higher than one week ago (from 14.5% higher yesterday) and 5.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 0.7% higher yesterday and 14.2% lower 7 days ago)
• 157 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 199 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 1.2% to 148.3 per day, following 0.4% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 4.8% lower than one week ago (from 9.8% lower yesterday) and 13.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 13.8% lower yesterday and 2.3% higher 7 days ago)

Appears to be a genuine and sustained upward trend in new cases.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
I never really seen the levelling of as anything other than temporary Billy. My thoughts on this is we need to be doing more booster jabs daily to protect people.

We have some days at 500k and others at 250k. We need to sustain the 500k daily boosters to stop the increases.

Of course if the increase is youngsters, providing they don't infect the older and health compromised folks, it won't follow that hospitalizations will follow. However hospitalizations trends have always followed infection trends, albeit significantly lower now than last year.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 44,917 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 40,004
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.8% to 41,774 per day, following 1.2% increase yesterday (and 11th daily increase in the past 12 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 8.4% higher than one week ago (from 9.4% higher yesterday) and 22.0% higher than two weeks ago (from 16.0% higher yesterday and 6.2% lower 7 days ago)
• 45 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 61 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 0.2% to 146.7 per day, following 0.2% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 5.2% lower than one week ago (from 5.9% lower yesterday) and 13.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 12.4% lower yesterday and 1.6% lower 7 days ago)
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 44,917 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 40,004
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.8% to 41,774 per day, following 1.2% increase yesterday (and 11th daily increase in the past 12 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 8.4% higher than one week ago (from 9.4% higher yesterday) and 22.0% higher than two weeks ago (from 16.0% higher yesterday and 6.2% lower 7 days ago)
• 45 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 61 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 0.2% to 146.7 per day, following 0.2% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 5.2% lower than one week ago (from 5.9% lower yesterday) and 13.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 12.4% lower yesterday and 1.6% lower 7 days ago)
I'm still hoping it's just finding the pockets of uninfected/ unvaccinated that haven't already been hit.

The boosters should really help, as they're targeting those who wane the most first, as well as those most at risk of anything.

Hard to know what faith to put into the cases though, especially in adults, as there's nowhere near as many people up for getting tested as there was previous. I know people who were getting a PCR no matter what symptoms, who now just write everything off as "a cold", without any test. Even one of the Indy Sage girls did it, and they've been more careful/ up for testing than anyone.

The ONS stats released on Fridays are good, but they're always weeks out of date, and there's probably a certain type of person willing to do those too I expect.

If you look at the case rates in the Northern towns and cities (and even some of the South), the rates are very low compared to the more rural areas/ smaller places, and we know the towns/ cities have already been hit, so may not get bad again, which will stop large rises
1637670565949.png


Maybe it's just wishful thinking, hope not though!

Hospitalisations still coming down though, which is the main thing, and there's no way to fudge those numbers.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
Andy, I don't think boosters are being given quick enough. I don't know if that is running at capacity or people aren't coming forward for their boosters. The disparity in boosters per day is really large, 200k-500k.

Even at 500k its 100 days to do everyone already vaccinated, at 250k a day its over 6 months. The original vaccine is waning at a quicker rate than that. Israel's numbers seem to indicate that the 3rd jab gives extended protection, which is good and may get us out of the unsustainable cycle of jabs every 4 months to maintain the effectiveness.

I think we will know quite soon whether the current plan A is sustainable, but why don't they just introduce some simple measures, before it's too late.
 

Capybara

Well-known member
The ONS stats released on Fridays are good, but they're always weeks out of date, and there's probably a certain type of person willing to do those too I expect.
The ONS stats are probably the best there are as they PCR test the same people every time - it's not a case of a certain type of person. The problem is not that, as you are say, their figures are a week or so out of date, it's that they are reported by the media - and the BBC is worst at this - as if they are up to date. On Friday the BBC reported that figures are going down, alongside the latest daily figures which are clearly going up.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Andy, I don't think boosters are being given quick enough. I don't know if that is running at capacity or people aren't coming forward for their boosters. The disparity in boosters per day is really large, 200k-500k.

Even at 500k its 100 days to do everyone already vaccinated, at 250k a day its over 6 months. The original vaccine is waning at a quicker rate than that. Israel's numbers seem to indicate that the 3rd jab gives extended protection, which is good and may get us out of the unsustainable cycle of jabs every 4 months to maintain the effectiveness.

I think we will know quite soon whether the current plan A is sustainable, but why don't they just introduce some simple measures, before it's too late.
Ah I know the delivery and take up could be better, wish it was, but we've "boosted" 26% of those who are over 12, which should hopefully mean that's >20% of the most at risk, who had the lowest levels of antibodies (of those subject to waning), it should make one hell of a difference to hospitalisations. Means the staff are better covered too.

The gap between eligible and total isn't really widening much and keeping that pace isn't bad, as those adding onto the eligible end are those who have better immunity/ younger anyway, also probably been out and about more, so more likely to have been exposed with the virus, topping that up naturally.

We've never had booster jabs every 4 month, the gap between 1&2 was 3 months, as planned and 2&3 was 6 months, even for the most at risk, who wane the most, but that 6 months should hopefully increase good coverage to 12 months at least. If it was 4 month we wouldn't be able to keep up.

I don't see any harm/ downside to compulsory masks and social distancing in shops, public transport and other areas which people are forced to use, and could be asking people to WFH where possible, that should be about enough to keep a lid on it, if it doesn't come down on it's own anyway.

I can't see us doing anything to restaurants/ pubs etc, as the economics/ lives case will be seen as much weaker than last winter, and hospitalisations are coming down.

I'd rather we had LF test before entry into bars/ restaurants, or a weekly PCR, rather than limit numbers/ shut them down to unvaccinated or even all, but anything needs to be on the table in case it gets out of hand (which I don't think it will).

1637672153058.png
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
The ONS stats are probably the best there are as they PCR test the same people every time - it's not a case of a certain type of person. The problem is not that, as you are say, their figures are a week or so out of date, it's that they are reported by the media - and the BBC is worst at this - as if they are up to date. On Friday the BBC reported that figures are going down, alongside the latest daily figures which are clearly going up.
I'm on about the weekly infection study, which is random as far as I'm aware, and not related to the daily dashboard figures? The last study is dated W/E 13 Nov, so on the 25th Nov, that's covering a range from the 8th-13th, which is up to 17 days old, and it takes 2-5 days to develop symptoms, but people could have caught it maybe as early as the 30th? Effectively it's working on 3 week old data, it's great data, but on a lag, but we're not going to get any more recent than that.

ONS is still showing us going down, as it's laggy, Dashboard has shown an increase over last two weeks, but not higher than 4 weeks ago.


 

Laughing

Well-known member
First up Andy, the graph, am I reading that correctly, the gap between done and waiting is the gap between the dark and light blue lines? I think I am reading that correctly. If that is the case the gap is widening a bit, but widening consistently.

On the 6 month gap, you are right, it was set at 6 months. I don't think that is short enough and the data backs that up, with vaccinated people still being hospitalized and dying. Of course, you would need some granular data to confirm this. The gap between 2nd and booster was set at 6 months, but i suspect that was more to do with what we could manage, rather than the optimum gap.

I agree with the limitations you mention, they are minor and won't have a huge impact, but we probably don't need a huge impact right now.

The government are derelict in the cause of freedom day.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
Randy, thats really interesting. I do have one question about it. Are all anti-body levels equal? In other words, will some adults have anti-bodies that are at such a low level as to be worthless?

I ask this because our infection rates are still climbing and 95% antibodies, you would have thought would be over the herd immunity threshold.
 

dooderooni

Well-known member
I'm no virology expert, but 2 years into this and it seems like herd immunity is still a way off and I'm not even sure we'll ever achieve it.
Covid seems to be quite robust in its ability to reinfect people, even those with a fully vaccinated status. The vaccines certainly look to have been effective in reducing serious outcomes though which is great news. What this all means for the future I don't really know, but I do think it'll be with us for many years to come. Maybe we'll need to live with it and certain measures such as masking for a bit yet while medical science continues to try and find a way to eradicate it?
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
First up Andy, the graph, am I reading that correctly, the gap between done and waiting is the gap between the dark and light blue lines? I think I am reading that correctly. If that is the case the gap is widening a bit, but widening consistently.

On the 6 month gap, you are right, it was set at 6 months. I don't think that is short enough and the data backs that up, with vaccinated people still being hospitalized and dying. Of course, you would need some granular data to confirm this. The gap between 2nd and booster was set at 6 months, but i suspect that was more to do with what we could manage, rather than the optimum gap.

I agree with the limitations you mention, they are minor and won't have a huge impact, but we probably don't need a huge impact right now.

The government are derelict in the cause of freedom day.
It's not the easiest to read, but I see that tweet every day and recent news is "it's catching up, but not fast enough, but better than it was". The dark blue line looks quite linear and the light blue seems to be speeding up, very slowly. They key to me about that, is that take up is still increasing well. I'm not to concerned about getting my booster anytime soon as I'm practically certain I've been exposed many times since getting double jabbed, and I know quite a few who feel this way. We're all going to get it as soon as it is available mind, as there's no reason not to and less risk is better.

That 6 months will go to 10-12 months, for the most vulnerable, and at a time a couple of weeks before winter, or whenever people have their flu jab, I expect. I don't think seasonality plays a massive part with Delta, but it does with Flu, so may as well protect Delta better at times when flu will be worse. So If someone at risk has just had theirs now, they may go to 10 months, and get it next September. But someone at risk getting it this September could wait until next September etc.

Looking forward to seeing some longer term data from boosters, from the booster trials etc, we know protection is higher and longer, but we don't know how much, with plenty of data. My guess is they will wait a while before releasing that.

I don't see much point, or future demand in under 40's/50's getting further boosters after the third, not when it would be pretty much endemic by then anyway.

Freedom day was one month earlier than the official day, when we had the euro's, people took that into their own hands I think.

Seems to me we've just banked our deaths and cases before winter, and some now are playing that as some sort of success, when it isn't. It just could have been controlled better, with very small measures, or had a short/ sharp period of planned protection. I can see why PHE wanted the wave earlier, but they didn't want this sustained high tide which they've been delivered, but hopefully it will recede soon, for hospitalisations at least, and get us back below excess deaths.
 

motownjunk

Active member
Randy, thats really interesting. I do have one question about it. Are all anti-body levels equal? In other words, will some adults have anti-bodies that are at such a low level as to be worthless?

I ask this because our infection rates are still climbing and 95% antibodies, you would have thought would be over the herd immunity threshold.
No antibody levels will vary massively. Just because someone has enough antibodies to be detected by this test doesn't mean they have enough to fight covid. The other thing to bear in mind is herd immunity relies on total population not adult population. If there is a big pool of unprotected people, I.e children, you will struggle to reach any sort of herd immunity.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Randy, thats really interesting. I do have one question about it. Are all anti-body levels equal? In other words, will some adults have anti-bodies that are at such a low level as to be worthless?

I ask this because our infection rates are still climbing and 95% antibodies, you would have thought would be over the herd immunity threshold.
Nah, loads of those will have half or 1/3rd lower protection than they had. Still good coverage (and help avoid a lot of deaths), but not as good as straight after vaccination/ infection/ boosters.

Our coverage levels are way higher than elsewhere in the EU (as we've had so much more infection), there was a graph on BBC earlier, but I can't find it now.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
No antibody levels will vary massively. Just because someone has enough antibodies to be detected by this test doesn't mean they have enough to fight covid. The other thing to bear in mind is herd immunity relies on total population not adult population. If there is a big pool of unprotected people, I.e children, you will struggle to reach any sort of herd immunity.
This is why primary school is taking a massive hit now, it's the last main group that was largely unaffected, along with some of the "well off" rural areas, which are also being hit.

Delta is just finding the gaps.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
I love that chart Andy, it's impossible to ready anything into it though because it isn't clear what it is based on. I would assume, its based on hospitalizations per 100K and Infection rates. Who knows though.

I would imagine that the bar chart correlates incredibly closely with vaccination rates.
 
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