NorthumberlandBoro
Well-known member
That the lockdown should be lifted in line with plan and not extended.
Yes, I wonder if some of the deaths should have been reported yesterday?Deaths up by 2 on the same day last week (112 vs 110).
Hopefully just a blip in the figures
Yesterday was exceptionally low, so probably. On a daily basis, rather than day reported, the numbers of deaths are reducing. They are approximately a third of the numbers two weeks ago.Yes, I wonder if some of the deaths should have been reported yesterday?
Johnson has repeatedly said, and make of that what you will, there will be no tier system in place after lockdown ends. I also think he will delay reopening because opening to soon and having to go back to restrictions would trigger a leadership challenge.5% less weekly uk deaths than the average (for everything), based on yesterdays data release, which only covers up to 12 March.
We're two weeks on from that, and with around 500 less COVID deaths per week, we're probably closer to 90% of typical deaths currently.
We're clawing back some of the previous excesses but is there much point in that, if we're not preventing any additional excess and the vaccine and additional testing capability should prevent future excess. So we should be trickling the economy open faster I think, at least at a local level.
Not having a tier system for different areas is a bit bonkers to me, even if it's split by county, but for some reason, they don't seem to want to do it. I think this is probably due to the rivalry and maybe more people up north are worse off so more forced into working/ mixing and higher transmission? It might end up as a bit of a class war, but the UK would be better off, by letting those out, that can do it safely. It would suck for those in the bad areas mind, and we would probably be one of them.Johnson has repeatedly said, and make of that what you will, there will be no tier system in place after lockdown ends. I also think he will delay reopening because opening to soon and having to go back to restrictions would trigger a leadership challenge.
I am ambivalent about tier systems. Part of me thinks we're all in it together or all our together.Not having a tier system for different areas is a bit bonkers to me, even if it's split by county, but for some reason, they don't seem to want to do it. I think this is probably due to the rivalry and maybe more people up north are worse off so more forced into working/ mixing and higher transmission? It might end up as a bit of a class war, but the UK would be better off, by letting those out, that can do it safely. It would suck for those in the bad areas mind, and we would probably be one of them.
I'm not sure what the trigger for increasing restrictions could be, we have the testing capacity, should be able to trace better, the weather is getting milder, and it's not possible to achieve the same hospitalizations and death numbers, now that 30m vaccines have been dished out.
I can understand restricting massive, un-masked mixing indoors in close proximity, like pubs and bars, but masked general shopping and pubs with outside areas, restaurants with limited seating and ventilation could all be working already.
I was all for lockdowns before we even started locking down, but now the length of these measures seems like a "solution" to a problem that should not be possible to materialise if we took it easy and kept an eye on it.
Getting to 10k cases was enough to get us below the normal deaths line, so no longer in excess. Now, based on 5k cases, we're going to be well below that line, so I would say we have scope to even double our cases at the very least. Over time that will double again as more and more are vaccinated. It can't not help, based on current strains.We will get a third wave that is an absolute certainty. The only question is, will having our most vulnerable vaccinated mean it won't matter.
I hope so, but we won't know for sure until it happens.
Oh I agree we should begin a careful removal of restrictions. You wonder how long vaccinations will be effective for and what the plans are for boosters.Getting to 10k cases was enough to get us below the normal deaths line, so no longer in excess. Now, based on 5k cases, we're going to be well below that line, so I would say we have scope to even double our cases at the very least. Over time that will double again as more and more are vaccinated. It can't not help, based on current strains.
5k cases now, is not the same as 5k before, we used to miss more cases and now they're far less deadly, 1k in old cases is probably the same as 10k now. We could have a 25k case wave in September and it not even be noticeable on the daily deaths, it depends what that 25k is made of and how many cases you're missing of course.
I just think it's a bad idea waiting for something that we're in theory protected against, the same way we were bonkers not locking down earlier last march or over Christmas, for something we had zero protection from. This government are so slow and backwards it's ridiculous.
I'm not so sure. Looking at Randy's last chart, it seems a bit unfair someone living safely in Devon to be locked down because Hull has a lot of cases. If you see what I mean? As long as travel to lower tiers is restricted then you can lockdown hot spots or open up safe areasThe tier system is divisive and only encourages folk to find a way around it. As others have said, we're all in this together.