The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

bear66 said:
It doesn't make it clear, but most likely people were told the correct result and then the figures put into the wrong spreadsheet column when totals were added. Otherwise they'd not have found out the mistake.
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Hopefully. Because that's a hell of a mess to clean up if they were all told they were positive and then obviously had to isolate as well as close contacts.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 4,715 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 6,187
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 2.2% to 5,562 per day, following 3.6% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 4.0% higher than one week ago (from 6.4% higher yesterday) and 3.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 2.9% lower yesterday and 12.6% lower 7 days ago)
• 58 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 70 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 7.8% to 64 per day, following 6.0% decrease yesterday (and 61st decrease in the past 63 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 31.6% lower than one week ago (from 28.5% lower yesterday) and 56.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 54.8% lower yesterday and 57.3% lower 7 days ago)
 
As of 9am on 28 March, 4,333,042 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 3,862.

19 deaths were reported today

148,125 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 12 March)

30,151,287 have had a first dose vaccination. 423,852 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 3,527,481 have had a second dose. 233,964 second dose vaccinations today.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 3,862 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 4,715
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 3.7% to 5,355 per day, following 2.2% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 1.7% lower than one week ago (from 4.0% higher yesterday) and 6.1% lower than two weeks ago (from 3.8% lower yesterday and 9.1% lower 7 days ago)
• 19 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 58 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 3.1% to 62 per day, following 7.8% decrease yesterday (and 62nd decrease in the past 64 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 31.7% lower than one week ago (from 31.6% lower yesterday) and 56.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 56.8% lower yesterday and 56.8% lower 7 days ago)
 
As of 9am on 29 March, 4,337,696 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 4,654.

23 deaths were reported today

148,125 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 12 March)

30,444,829 have had a first dose vaccination. 293,542 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 3,674,266 have had a second dose. 146,785 second dose vaccinations today.
 
Three low case days in a row, since we started with this massively increased testing, two days around 4,700 and one 3,900, all well below the 5300 7-day average.

Hospital admissions have less than halved, during the time we've had a bit of a case flat line since the beginning of March (apart from case reduction over last few days).

Some more positive signs.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 4,654 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 3,862
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 1.8% to 5,257 per day, following 3.7% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 4.2% lower than one week ago (from 1.7% lower yesterday) and 8.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 6.1% lower yesterday and 6.9% lower 7 days ago)
• 23 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 19 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 1.4% to 63 per day, following 3.1% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 25.3% lower than one week ago (from 31.7% lower yesterday) and 56.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 56.9% lower yesterday and 58.8% lower 7 days ago)
 
As of 9am on 30 March, 4,341,736 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 4,040.

56 deaths were reported today

149,168 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 19 March)

30,689,948 have had a first dose vaccination. 236,119 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 3,674,266 have had a second dose. 163,744 second dose vaccinations today.
 
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Averaged 4300 cases per day, over the last 4 days, almost certainly destined for a <5000 per day average, which is great with the kids back and with more tests being carried out. Last 4 days also about 750-1000 cases lower than the corresponding day last week. Probably going to end up a 20% weekly drop in actual numbers, we've not seen that for a while.

Edit:
This graph shows the 7 day average trend better, heading in the right direction again.
1617175343182.png
 
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BoroFur said:
So the little nugget I teased yesterday.

Yesterday's reported death figures completed the first 7 day run of sub-100 deaths reported since the period 6th to 12th October last year.
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We've been out of excess deaths for about 3 weeks now too, we're now about 7% lower than the 5-year average on the last data, from up to 19th March, I expect that will be even lower now as deaths have reduced.
 
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Irrespective of what happens with cases, if hospitalisations and deaths fall below that of a bad flu season I can see no justification for lockdown.
 
NorthumberlandBoro said:
Irrespective of what happens with cases, if hospitalisations and deaths fall below that of a bad flu season I can see no justification for lockdown.
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I see what you mean, but I think the idea is in theory, to prevent another wave, so that the NHS doesn't take another kicking, and so it can be getting back to treating the other people that it needs to, a time of normality as such. We've already had a catastrophic flu season, so we can't get any less than catastrophic without clawing something back with heavy measures. Of course there is potential to make the catastrophe even worse if we derestrict, albeit we've already vaccinated practically everyone at major risk, so although cases could go higher, deaths and admissions probably would not (not like before). It would also be hard to increase cases rapidly with 30m vaccinated, and coming into summer. This seems like a bit of a false argument to me, but it can't be known for certain yet.

For me, we could have a lot less restrictions now, if people were open to having further restrictions in the next few weeks or months, but there seems to be less appetite for this. This is probably a "take advantage whilst it's low scenario", just get it as low as possible, whilst vaccines are being achieved in high numbers, and immunity grows every day. It's probably worse for some businesses opening and closing alternating months, rather than just getting all the shut period out of the way, in one hit. Not my industry mind, some might just rather take any open periods they can get.

I can see advantages for both sides, and I think the government are doing this one as it looks better for them to have one longer lockdown, rather than constant headlines of new lockdowns. They peddle this as "being cautious" to try and make up for not being cautious the other two times, but it's not the case, they're likely just PR managing now.
 
I think the death rates dropping so fast have caught them by surprise. but like the government says they want it to be irreversible so we don't end up with a situation like in some European countries where they are now tightening restrictions again. It is April tomorrow so the timeline is coming along nicely. Will be an interesting set of figures from the 12th April when non essential retail opens and the kids are back in school. that will be the real determiner on how well we are progressing. a little patience required by all and we "should" be fine!
 
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