The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Today's headline analysis:

• 5,342 new cases reported in 24-hour period, slightly up from yesterday's 5,312
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 0.7% to 5,485 per day, following 1.9% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 4.7% lower than one week ago (from 4.4% lower yesterday) and 6.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 9.1% lower yesterday and 27.9% lower 7 days ago)
• 17 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 33 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 7.3% to 85 per day, following 2.9% decrease yesterday (and 57th decrease in the past 58 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 41.5% lower than one week ago (from 36.9% lower yesterday) and 58.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 56.8% lower yesterday and 53.8% lower 7 days ago)
 
As of 9am on 23 March, 4,307,304 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 5,379.

112 deaths were reported today

148,125 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 12 March)

28,327,873 have had a first dose vaccination. 328,897 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 2,363,684 have had a second dose. 82,300 second dose vaccinations today.
 
5% less weekly uk deaths than the average (for everything), based on yesterdays data release, which only covers up to 12 March.

We're two weeks on from that, and with around 500 less COVID deaths per week, we're probably closer to 90% of typical deaths currently.

We're clawing back some of the previous excesses but is there much point in that, if we're not preventing any additional excess and the vaccine and additional testing capability should prevent future excess. So we should be trickling the economy open faster I think, at least at a local level.
 
As of 9am on 24 March, 4,312,908 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 5,605.

98 deaths were reported today

148,125 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 12 March)

28,653,523 have had a first dose vaccination. 325,650 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 2,532,839 have had a second dose. 169,155 second dose vaccinations today.
 
Andy_W said:
5% less weekly uk deaths than the average (for everything), based on yesterdays data release, which only covers up to 12 March.

We're two weeks on from that, and with around 500 less COVID deaths per week, we're probably closer to 90% of typical deaths currently.

We're clawing back some of the previous excesses but is there much point in that, if we're not preventing any additional excess and the vaccine and additional testing capability should prevent future excess. So we should be trickling the economy open faster I think, at least at a local level.
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Johnson has repeatedly said, and make of that what you will, there will be no tier system in place after lockdown ends. I also think he will delay reopening because opening to soon and having to go back to restrictions would trigger a leadership challenge.
 
Laughing said:
Johnson has repeatedly said, and make of that what you will, there will be no tier system in place after lockdown ends. I also think he will delay reopening because opening to soon and having to go back to restrictions would trigger a leadership challenge.
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Not having a tier system for different areas is a bit bonkers to me, even if it's split by county, but for some reason, they don't seem to want to do it. I think this is probably due to the rivalry and maybe more people up north are worse off so more forced into working/ mixing and higher transmission? It might end up as a bit of a class war, but the UK would be better off, by letting those out, that can do it safely. It would suck for those in the bad areas mind, and we would probably be one of them.

I'm not sure what the trigger for increasing restrictions could be, we have the testing capacity, should be able to trace better, the weather is getting milder, and it's not possible to achieve the same hospitalizations and death numbers, now that 30m vaccines have been dished out.

I can understand restricting massive, un-masked mixing indoors in close proximity, like pubs and bars, but masked general shopping and pubs with outside areas, restaurants with limited seating and ventilation could all be working already.

I was all for lockdowns before we even started locking down, but now the length of these measures seems like a "solution" to a problem that should not be possible to materialise if we took it easy and kept an eye on it.
 
I think caution is prudent, going along to the timescales given. If we did open up quicker and the worst happened with a third wave with a variant thrown in then we’d be back in lockdown faster than the government handing out a contract to it’s mate.

heaven knows I need a pint and some craic in the pub with me mates mind!!
 
Andy_W said:
Not having a tier system for different areas is a bit bonkers to me, even if it's split by county, but for some reason, they don't seem to want to do it. I think this is probably due to the rivalry and maybe more people up north are worse off so more forced into working/ mixing and higher transmission? It might end up as a bit of a class war, but the UK would be better off, by letting those out, that can do it safely. It would suck for those in the bad areas mind, and we would probably be one of them.

I'm not sure what the trigger for increasing restrictions could be, we have the testing capacity, should be able to trace better, the weather is getting milder, and it's not possible to achieve the same hospitalizations and death numbers, now that 30m vaccines have been dished out.

I can understand restricting massive, un-masked mixing indoors in close proximity, like pubs and bars, but masked general shopping and pubs with outside areas, restaurants with limited seating and ventilation could all be working already.

I was all for lockdowns before we even started locking down, but now the length of these measures seems like a "solution" to a problem that should not be possible to materialise if we took it easy and kept an eye on it.
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I am ambivalent about tier systems. Part of me thinks we're all in it together or all our together.

On the subject of test and trace is still a 37 billion pound failure. It doesn't work so I wouldn't be relying on that anytime soon or indeed ever.

W are in for an interesting year, hopefully one better than last.
 
Laughing said:
We will get a third wave that is an absolute certainty. The only question is, will having our most vulnerable vaccinated mean it won't matter.

I hope so, but we won't know for sure until it happens.
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Getting to 10k cases was enough to get us below the normal deaths line, so no longer in excess. Now, based on 5k cases, we're going to be well below that line, so I would say we have scope to even double our cases at the very least. Over time that will double again as more and more are vaccinated. It can't not help, based on current strains.

5k cases now, is not the same as 5k before, we used to miss more cases and now they're far less deadly, 1k in old cases is probably the same as 10k now. We could have a 25k case wave in September and it not even be noticeable on the daily deaths, it depends what that 25k is made of and how many cases you're missing of course.

I just think it's a bad idea waiting for something that we're in theory protected against, the same way we were bonkers not locking down earlier last march or over Christmas, for something we had zero protection from. This government are so slow and backwards it's ridiculous.
 
Andy_W said:
Getting to 10k cases was enough to get us below the normal deaths line, so no longer in excess. Now, based on 5k cases, we're going to be well below that line, so I would say we have scope to even double our cases at the very least. Over time that will double again as more and more are vaccinated. It can't not help, based on current strains.

5k cases now, is not the same as 5k before, we used to miss more cases and now they're far less deadly, 1k in old cases is probably the same as 10k now. We could have a 25k case wave in September and it not even be noticeable on the daily deaths, it depends what that 25k is made of and how many cases you're missing of course.

I just think it's a bad idea waiting for something that we're in theory protected against, the same way we were bonkers not locking down earlier last march or over Christmas, for something we had zero protection from. This government are so slow and backwards it's ridiculous.
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Oh I agree we should begin a careful removal of restrictions. You wonder how long vaccinations will be effective for and what the plans are for boosters.

In any event without a life what's the point in it all. Working eating and sleeping is no life. We are all going to have to accept some risk at some point. You minimise the risk as much as you can and allow people to make their own minds up how much risk they are happy with.
 
It makes ZERO sense to keep restrictions in place once those nine groups have received their second dose and allowed the 2-3 weeks to pass by for full immunisation.

Mass testing. Lateral flow testing. Better anti-viral treatments. Effective vaccines. Vaccine tweaking for new variants. Promising developments on pill/nasal medications.

Science is well ahead of this virus now, and wasn't that the message from the start? Going with the science, now looking at the data. We were told time and time again, protect the NHS, avoid it from being overwhelmed. A few thousand cases are probably what we will be looking at in terms of living with this virus indefinitely. A tier system will only exacerbate public opinion. Deaths and admissions are drastically down; over 99.4% of those that have died of COVID were within the first nine groups.

If we prolong this lockdown throughout the next couple of months and into the summer, no doubt the likes of Whitty will be warning about the autumn/colder weather on the way and once again, we will never get out of this. Herd immunity does need to be built up; I feel a bit uncomfortable when people shout out 'survival rate is 99.7%' whilst that is true to an extent; it is skewed for those older/with underlying health conditions. Yet, at what point is the economy beyond the point of no return? And are we never going to have full football stadiums, music festival, nightclubs ever again in fear of this?
 
BoroFur said:
The tier system is divisive and only encourages folk to find a way around it. As others have said, we're all in this together.
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I'm not so sure. Looking at Randy's last chart, it seems a bit unfair someone living safely in Devon to be locked down because Hull has a lot of cases. If you see what I mean? As long as travel to lower tiers is restricted then you can lockdown hot spots or open up safe areas
 
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