The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

RandySavage said:
How is it a personal attack? As I said you can't bang on at me for wanting to loosen the lockdown for you to then go and arrange a test drive of a sports car.
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I can, for the very reasons I've explained. The reasons you keep ignoring, are not understanding, or whatever your reason is for wanting 300 people a day dying.

IN all fairness, and ignoring your latest ludicrous over reaction you have point on the Test drive thing. Thing is cars are so cheap at the moment and it's a touch free drive and I'll be careful. I know it's still a hypocrisy though, I'll concede that.

I just wish you could be a bit more grateful when I explain why this is different to the flu, etc. rather than just ignore my explanation and change the focus of the argument.
 
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Today's headline analysis:

• 499 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 559
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 9.5%, following 3.9% decrease yesterday (and 31st consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 32.4% lower than one week ago (from 30.7% lower yesterday) and 55.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 52.8% lower yesterday and 47.7% lower 7 days ago)
• 204 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 357 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 0.7%, following 2.0% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 3.4% lower than one week ago (from 6.4% higher yesterday) and 25.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 30.9% lower yesterday and 40.9% lower 7 days ago)
 
Billy Horner said:
I'm not saying the trend is going up. I'm saying that it's stopped going down.

Today was indeed the lowest number of hospital deaths announced on a Saturday since 21st March. Two days ago, we also had the lowest number of deaths in all settings announced on for a weekday since 24th March. These are clearly positive signs and indicators that things are a lot better than they were.

But these individual pieces of good news are not really reflected in the 7-day average for new deaths in all settings, which has hardly moved at all in the past 11 days. Even with today's relatively low number of hospital deaths, the overall death toll in all settings was 204, which compares with 215 one week ago, and results in a reduction in the 7-day average of just 0.7%.

11 days ago, the 7-day average for new deaths was 244 and today is 235, which is just a 3.7% reduction in that period. Similarly, 11 days ago the 7-day average was halving every two weeks, whereas now it is reducing by just a quarter.

So, I agree that the numbers of postive tests are certainly reducing (although the ONS surveillance survey still suggest 5,600 new infections per day) and I also agree that things are significantly improved from where we we 4-6 weeks ago. There are individual pieces of good news on particular days, which may well develop into trends.

But the current trend on new deaths, which has been downwards since mid-April, has undoubtedly stalled in the past 11 days. As I posted earlier, this may be a blip, a plateauing or the beginning of a reversal. We won't know that for a little while. What we do know, however, is that it has definitely happened.
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I'm glad that at least for now its still looking good on the trends that I'm looking at.. I tend not to look at all cause deaths because they are not as good an indicator as tested deaths (not that I want that to sound cruel). It's just community deaths can't possibly be as accurate with lack of testing.

I have been taking positives from the fact that despite lockdown the pillar 1 and pillar 2 have still been dropping substantially. For me the next couple of weeks is crunch time. All the let's say skeptical scientists\researchers have said this is the end of it so if it goes back up substantially then they are blatantly wrong.
 
As of 9am on 7 June, there have been 5,581,073 tests, with 142,123 tests on 6 June.

286,194 people have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 6 June, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, across all settings, 40,542 have died.

0.45% increase in positive tests yesterday. Less than 300 Pillar 1 positive tests.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 292 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 499
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 3.8%, following 9.5% decrease yesterday (and 32nd consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 29.9% lower than one week ago (from 32.4% lower yesterday) and 56.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 55.8% lower yesterday and 49.5% lower 7 days ago)
• 77 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 204 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 2.2%, following 0.7% decrease yesterday (and 2nd consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 5.2% lower than one week ago (from 3.4% lower yesterday) and 25.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 25.6% lower yesterday and 39.0% lower 7 days ago)
 
SmallTown said:
I know it's Sunday reporting but how does the 77 deaths in all setting compare with other weeks? It's only a single day I'm aware but I do like seeing lower nnumbers
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It's the lowest daily total since those announced for Sunday 22nd March. Clearly positive news and follows on from those announced for last Wednesday, which were the lowest weekday numbers announced since those for Monday 23rd March.

My only note of caution would be that the last two weekends have both seen numbers announced that were in the very low three figures, but were followed by several days of 300+ reported deaths in the subsequent days. This is illustrated by the fact that, despite today's relatively low figure, the rate of decrease in the 7-day average when compared with a fortnight ago, actually slowed fractionally today from yesterday (only by 0.1% but still noteworthy).
 
@spanishman does this look familiar to the elephant graph you mentioned at the beginning of the outbreak?

This is the last 24 hours by the way.

Screenshot_20200608-142609.png
 
Yet again the figures aren't adding up.

NHS England say 59 deaths in English hospitals.

The release from the Department of Health and Social Care say 55 deaths in the UK.

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As of 9am on 8 June, there have been 5,731,576 tests, with 138,183 tests on 7 June.

287,399 people have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 7 June, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, across all settings, 40,597 have died.

0.41% increase in positive tests and just 158 Pillar 1.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 158 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 292
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 6.6%, following 3.8% decrease yesterday (and 33rd consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 30.0% lower than one week ago (from 29.9% lower yesterday) and 57.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 56.2% lower yesterday and 51.7% lower 7 days ago)
• 55 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 77 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 3.5%, following 2.2% decrease yesterday (and 3rd consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 7.9% lower than one week ago (from 5.2% lower yesterday) and 26.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 25.5% lower yesterday and 38.3% lower 7 days ago)
 
The thing I am interested in that table Randy is the column for pre-existing conditions. I have often wondered how much of an impact that has on the disease. Clearly it has a relevance as the figures for pre-existing conditions are invariably much larger than none. The reason I wonder, is how much of it is down to "most people" have an existing condition. Now I have no idea if that is true or not, but I would assume people over a certain age invariably have a pre-existing condition.
 
Laughing said:
The thing I am interested in that table Randy is the column for pre-existing conditions. I have often wondered how much of an impact that has on the disease. Clearly it has a relevance as the figures for pre-existing conditions are invariably much larger than none. The reason I wonder, is how much of it is down to "most people" have an existing condition. Now I have no idea if that is true or not, but I would assume people over a certain age invariably have a pre-existing condition.
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Same. I was expecting though the figure of 1318 to be a LOT higher.
Hopefully the government and the NHS after studying these figures over the next few weeks, implement a serious public health campaign to get the general population fitter.
Me personally I took it upon myself to get fitter after been furloughed at work as found it a perfect opportunity. Eating better now and getting out and about a lot more. Buying a bike at the end of the month too.
 
Their reporting methods are driving experts mental, as well as the public.

Sounds like Italy and Spain's numbers are going to be a LOT higher too.
 
Laughing said:
The thing I am interested in that table Randy is the column for pre-existing conditions. I have often wondered how much of an impact that has on the disease. Clearly it has a relevance as the figures for pre-existing conditions are invariably much larger than none. The reason I wonder, is how much of it is down to "most people" have an existing condition. Now I have no idea if that is true or not, but I would assume people over a certain age invariably have a pre-existing condition.
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It was discussed today that the term "pre-existing conditions" is slightly misleading, as not only can it be something they have before they get sick with say Covid, it can also just be a contributory factor to the death. So a lot of the death certificates are citing pneumonia & COPD as pre-existing conditions and it would be wrong to think that all these people were at deaths door with pneumonia & then caught Covid which pushed them over the edge. It is more likely that they were seriously ill with Covid and then developed symptoms consistent with pneumonia & COPD prior to dying, hence it is recorded on death certificate.

So the above table isn't a carte blanche for people under 40 with no obvious "pre-existing conditions" to do what they want.
 
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Evil said:
Their reporting methods are driving experts mental, as well as the public.

Sounds like Italy and Spain's numbers are going to be a LOT higher too.
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They will be.
This country didn't see care homes abandoned with bodies found by the authorities. Hospital corridors were not full of stretchers. There has been no constant noise of sirens like we heard in Italy.

To bring some balance to what quoted Billy on earlier it seems the WHO have new information regarding asymptomatic cases.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/08...tions-who-says.html?__twitter_impression=true
 
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