The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

As of 9am on 6 June, there have been 5,438,712 tests, with 218,187 tests on 5 June.

284,868 people have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 5 June, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, across all settings, 40,465 have died.

0.55% increase in positive tests.
 
Firstly, I don’t claim to be an oracle on Covid-19 at all. I put a few statistics up for the benefit of those who are interested and, from time to time, post my interpretation of what they are showing, particularly in terms of trends.

In the case of the numbers of new deaths, there is clear evidence that the previously consistent fall in numbers since the peak has stalled in the past 10 days. That may be a blip, a plateauing or the beginning of a reversal. We don’t yet know, but it’s clear from the numbers that it has happened.

I don’t disagree with your quote from Chris Whitty at all. In fact, I posted over the past couple of days that there is evidence of very mild/asymptomatic infection from the ONS surveillance survey.

However, I fail to see the relevance of this quote in a discussion about the trend in death numbers. By definition, these are very severe cases so that quote simply doesn’t apply to them.

Hey Billy I'm genuinely confused at the moment today we've had the least numbers of deaths announced on a Saturday since lockdown started Randy just posted a further graph showing a downward trend in deaths also.

Then we have positive tests on the 7 day rolling average falling savagely for pillar 1 and pillar 2, aswell as least amount of positive tests on a Saturday despite 215k tests done.

Yet I'm hearing the trend is going up, not just from you I'm just wondering if you can please provide me links to what your seeing?

It's just this is it for me, if there is a significant increase in the next couple of weeks I will accept I've been wrong but the data doesn't seem to support it.
 
Again I am not saying people dying is fine I just don't obsess about it. You didnt answer the question. Why are you so bothered about people coming out of lockdown now if you personally don't believe it's safe to do so? You would have no contact with these people so would not be at risk of a virus that is on its way out or anything else they might be carrying.
If you can't see why I'm bothered about people coming out of lockdown you REALLY REALY can't understand what I am saying. You've pretty much admitted you're happy to see people die as long as you'e alright jack. I'm not. Why don't we leave it at that?

Seems we have got to the right of it after all. Your last post shows you believe people should be selfish. I don't I don't want others to needlessly die, you seem less bothered as long as you are ok. Gad we got to the bottom of that.
 
If you can't see why I'm bothered about people coming out of lockdown you REALLY REALY can't understand what I am saying. You've pretty much admitted you're happy to see people die as long as you'e alright jack. I'm not. Why don't we leave it at that?

Seems we have got to the right of it after all. Your last post shows you believe people should be selfish. I don't I don't want others to needlessly die, you seem less bothered as long as you are ok. Gad we got to the bottom of that.
Avoided the question again.
Also avoided @hopesoboro 's question too.
Are you sure you don't work for the government? Seem to be an expert in deflection.
 
Randy, maybe Small Town is not just worried for himself, but for the health of others?
Opening up everywhere before we've even met the government's own conditions and with the r still hovering just under 1 is very risky. All it needs is a few of you young people who may or may not display any symptoms to become infected and pass it on and before you know it the r is over 1 and someone down the line of infections isn't so lucky as to not suffer any symptoms.
My approach is not to protect myself, but to protect others. I'm working 40 hours a week and looking after two shielding people. I wear a mask at work, conduct high levels of hygiene and socially distance. When I go out for petrol, groceries or anything else then I follow the same rules as I do at work.
As I said yesterday, I was in a very, very small minority of mask wearers in Stockton yesterday, when all shops are open then I really do worry that it'll only take a few asymptomatic people to start infection chains again. I'd be a lot happier if the infection and death numbers were in double digits before giving this virus an open field to start replicating again.
 
Why are you bothered about people coming out of lockdown when you yourself won't be? You won't have contact with these people so what's the issue?
Ah right. I did answer you just didn't understand. it's that I'm not as selfish as you. I can look after myself but others can't easing the lock down is killing hundreds of people daily. You might be "I'm alright Jack" but I care about others
 
Randy, maybe Small Town is not just worried for himself, but for the health of others?
Opening up everywhere before we've even met the government's own conditions and with the r still hovering just under 1 is very risky. All it needs is a few of you young people who may or may not display any symptoms to become infected and pass it on and before you know it the r is over 1 and someone down the line of infections isn't so lucky as to not suffer any symptoms.
My approach is not to protect myself, but to protect others. I'm working 40 hours a week and looking after two shielding people. I wear a mask at work, conduct high levels of hygiene and socially distance. When I go out for petrol, groceries or anything else then I follow the same rules as I do at work.
As I said yesterday, I was in a very, very small minority of mask wearers in Stockton yesterday, when all shops are open then I really do worry that it'll only take a few asymptomatic people to start infection chains again. I'd be a lot happier if the infection and death numbers were in double digits before giving this virus an open field to start replicating again.
If the population of the country is basing their decisions on the R0 number then we are ****ed.

R value
The UK government’s approach to relaxing the lockdown is based on the reproductive value, sometimes referred to as the ‘R value,’ ‘R number‘ or ‘R rate.’ This is a measure of how a disease can spread through a population. The value itself is the average number of people who can catch the disease from a single infected person.
In this video, Sunetra Gupta, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford, explains that we don’t have enough information for the R value for COVID-19.

According to Dr. John Lee, the R value is not a strong enough number to bear the burden of any Government policy. ‘R‘ is an artificial figure calculated using mathematical models which, as he says, “have repeatedly been found to reach wrong-headed conclusions.”

As seen on https://evidencenotfear.com/evidence/#r-value
 
Hey Billy I'm genuinely confused at the moment today we've had the least numbers of deaths announced on a Saturday since lockdown started Randy just posted a further graph showing a downward trend in deaths also.

Then we have positive tests on the 7 day rolling average falling savagely for pillar 1 and pillar 2, aswell as least amount of positive tests on a Saturday despite 215k tests done.

Yet I'm hearing the trend is going up, not just from you I'm just wondering if you can please provide me links to what your seeing?

It's just this is it for me, if there is a significant increase in the next couple of weeks I will accept I've been wrong but the data doesn't seem to support it.

I'm not saying the trend is going up. I'm saying that it's stopped going down.

Today was indeed the lowest number of hospital deaths announced on a Saturday since 21st March. Two days ago, we also had the lowest number of deaths in all settings announced on for a weekday since 24th March. These are clearly positive signs and indicators that things are a lot better than they were.

But these individual pieces of good news are not really reflected in the 7-day average for new deaths in all settings, which has hardly moved at all in the past 11 days. Even with today's relatively low number of hospital deaths, the overall death toll in all settings was 204, which compares with 215 one week ago, and results in a reduction in the 7-day average of just 0.7%.

11 days ago, the 7-day average for new deaths was 244 and today is 235, which is just a 3.7% reduction in that period. Similarly, 11 days ago the 7-day average was halving every two weeks, whereas now it is reducing by just a quarter.

So, I agree that the numbers of postive tests are certainly reducing (although the ONS surveillance survey still suggest 5,600 new infections per day) and I also agree that things are significantly improved from where we we 4-6 weeks ago. There are individual pieces of good news on particular days, which may well develop into trends.

But the current trend on new deaths, which has been downwards since mid-April, has undoubtedly stalled in the past 11 days. As I posted earlier, this may be a blip, a plateauing or the beginning of a reversal. We won't know that for a little while. What we do know, however, is that it has definitely happened.
 
If the population of the country is basing their decisions on the R0 number then we are ****ed.

R value
The UK government’s approach to relaxing the lockdown is based on the reproductive value, sometimes referred to as the ‘R value,’ ‘R number‘ or ‘R rate.’ This is a measure of how a disease can spread through a population. The value itself is the average number of people who can catch the disease from a single infected person.
In this video, Sunetra Gupta, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford, explains that we don’t have enough information for the R value for COVID-19.

According to Dr. John Lee, the R value is not a strong enough number to bear the burden of any Government policy. ‘R‘ is an artificial figure calculated using mathematical models which, as he says, “have repeatedly been found to reach wrong-headed conclusions.”

As seen on https://evidencenotfear.com/evidence/#r-value
The government are using it Randy and they are the ones giving the conflicting messages about how finely balanced the situation is and how it's down to us to keep it under 1. Yet they are opening up against their own standards and they are lagging in providing an effective track, trace and isolate system.
I have no way of measuring the r value, but I can control my actions even though my best efforts could be undone by those less diligent or responsible be that through deliberate actions or not.
 
The government are using it Randy and they are the ones giving the conflicting messages about how finely balanced the situation is and how it's down to us to keep it under 1. Yet they are opening up against their own standards and they are lagging in providing an effective track, trace and isolate system.
I have no way of measuring the r value, but I can control my actions even though my best efforts could be undone by those less diligent or responsible be that through deliberate actions or not.
Hey look I'm not defending the government they've cocked up big time. Again I agree with you on the mixed messages, we were told Easter weekend would see a huge spike, same the VE bank holiday weekend, same with the people cramming onto public transport in London the day we were told you could go back to work if you couldn't at home. Non of those major spikes have happened. We were also told that relaxing lockdown measures one by one would see upticks in inflections, this has happened.
Your point about Smalltown caring about others, if he was that bothered about others why would he be in the market for a new car, even so far as going to test drive one this weekend, a 718 Porsche I believe? Isn't that putting unnecessary risk onto the car salesmen? The mechanics who prep the cars? The lads valeting the cars in his eyes?

He can't call me an I'm alright jack when I'm not the one going out of my way to make an unnecessary purchase.👀
 
Hey look I'm not defending the government they've cocked up big time. Again I agree with you on the mixed messages, we were told Easter weekend would see a huge spike, same the VE bank holiday weekend, same with the people cramming onto public transport in London the day we were told you could go back to work if you couldn't at home. Non of those major spikes have happened. We were also told that relaxing lockdown measures one by one would see upticks in inflections, this has happened.
Your point about Smalltown caring about others, if he was that bothered about others why would he be in the market for a new car, even so far as going to test drive one this weekend, a 718 Porsche I believe? Isn't that putting unnecessary risk onto the car salesmen? The mechanics who prep the cars? The lads valeting the cars in his eyes?

He can't call me an I'm alright jack when I'm not the one going out of my way to make an unnecessary purchase.👀
Ah when you lose all the arguments you go for the personal attack. Typical
 
I was unaware of that Randy and it's not something I'd be doing. Maybe if I was in a position to be buying a new car then I'd be weighing up the potential risks, maybe I wouldn't. That's all part of the problem though, what you can and can't control. Buying a new car or opening somewhere like the Metro Centre bring risks of differing levels though.
 
Ah when you lose all the arguments you go for the personal attack. Typical
How is it a personal attack? As I said you can't bang on at me for wanting to loosen the lockdown for you to then go and arrange a test drive of a sports car.
What you deem as an acceptable risk is fine but what I deem as an acceptable risk isn't?

I get it now. You want a police state where those that can afford nice things are allowed to go and get nice things but those of us who want to get on with our lives working on the bread line are not.
 
Back
Top