The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Today's headline analysis:

• 10,625 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 9,765
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 2.0% to 12,332 per day, following 4.7% decrease yesterday (and 37th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 27.8% lower than one week ago (from 29.0% lower yesterday) and 47.0% lower than two weeks ago (same as yesterday and 46.4% lower 7 days ago)
• 799 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 230 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 5.5% to 621 per day, following 2.2% decrease yesterday (and 23rd decrease in the past 24 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 25.6% lower than one week ago (from 26.2% lower yesterday) and 44.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 42.8% lower yesterday and 32.8% lower 7 days ago)
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 12,718 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 10,625
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 0.3% to 12,289 per day, following 2.0% decrease yesterday (and 38th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 24.1% lower than one week ago (from 27.8% lower yesterday) and 45.1% lower than two weeks ago (from 47.0% lower yesterday and 45.9% lower 7 days ago)
• 738 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 799 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 6.1% to 583 per day, following 5.5% decrease yesterday (and 24th decrease in the past 25 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 26.0% lower than one week ago (from 25.6% lower yesterday) and 45.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 44.7% lower yesterday and 35.8% lower 7 days ago)
 
Alvez_48 said:
Positive cases beginning to work in mysterious ways again.. Nothings changed yet there appears to be a halt in the fall.
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Good to see a 10% drop today. There’s been some outbreaks in prisons lately (I think there’s been numerous ones in Scotland) so may account for part of a reduction in fall %
 
bear66 said:
Guardian headline today but not a lot behind it. It was based on React 1 imperial study. "Covid spreading most in children as overall infections show big fall"
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Ah ok. I’m interested to see how the trend develops over the next few weeks as figures (hopefully) continue to drop, and isolated outbreaks have more of an impact on day to day numbers.

I can’t see how the general trend (minus outbreaks) can be plateauing already with so many vaccinated / having antibodies from previous infection, unless of course it is spreading through younger children who are at day care / still needing to go to school.
 
Last Friday was the highest day for cases that week, so if we can avoid that this week and don't go up tomorrow, we should be still in a 20% decline week on week, which is still good going.

We're at around 12,000 average cases now per day, on these numbers we won't be generating excess deaths, not with the lockdown also limiting deaths from flu and other issues. They will just be using the lockdowns to stop winter increases now, it's less about the reductions.
 
bear66 said:
There was a report of primary aged children being the most numerous today. Possibly causing a rise in numbers but not hospitalisations.
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Hell of a coincidence when schools returning is a priority on the agenda and starts happening in Scotland this Monday.
Coincidences eh? Who'd have them.
 
Randy said:
Hell of a coincidence when schools returning is a priority on the agenda and starts happening in Scotland this Monday.
Coincidences eh? Who'd have them.
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They don't care about the kids, they care about someone taking the kids off the worker's hands, so they can get them off furlough.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 12,057 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 12,718
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 1.7% to 12,084 per day, following 0.3% decrease yesterday (and 39th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 20.3% lower than one week ago (from 24.1% lower yesterday) and 43.1% lower than two weeks ago (from 45.1% lower yesterday and 46.9% lower 7 days ago)
• 454 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 738 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 5.5% to 551 per day, following 6.1% decrease yesterday (and 25th decrease in the past 26 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 26.9% lower than one week ago (from 26.0% lower yesterday) and 45.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 45.2% lower yesterday and 38.2% lower 7 days ago)
 
HolgateCorner said:
Does anybody know the number of tests versus positive cases?

Are they generally the same every day?
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The best measure will be positive cases by specimen date as a proportion of tests processed. However, that takes about five days to settle down, so it's still a bit early to tell yet (although does look like a slight nudge upwards).

If you look at positive cases by date reported as a proportion of tests processed, that has increased for each of the past three days. That's the first time that's happened since the beginning of January.

EDIT - as Bear points out, the overall proportion is significantly lower than it was, which is important.
 
Billy Horner said:
The best measure will be positive cases by specimen date as a proportion of tests processed. However, that takes about five days to settle down, so it's still a bit early to tell yet (although does look like a slight nudge upwards).

If you look at positive cases by date reported as a proportion of tests processed, that has increased for each of the past three days. That's the first time that's happened since the beginning of January.

EDIT - as Bear points out, the overall proportion is significantly lower than it was, which is important.
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Thanks for that, maybe settling down to a background rate of Covid for the current restrictions? Bearing in mind a lot of people go into work every day, or go shopping, key worker children in school etc etc
 
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