Randy
Well-known member
Do you think they'd get away with a fourth lockdown?
The 9am figures not disclosed yet?
- Thread starter bear66
- Start date
bear66
Well-known member
Yes.
SmallTown
Well-known member
Nothing. Why have you been attacking me on this thread thinking I “want” something? I never said that and I can’t understand why you’re constantly having a go for something I haven’t said
Randy
Well-known member
If vaccines work why don't they work then?
Or were they more government lies?
Laughing
Well-known member
Johnson will not go back into lockdown, he is done if he does. Hopefully that will not be necessary with the vaccination programme. If, for whatever reason, another lockdown becomes necessary he will delay for so long it will make his previous inaction look pre-emptive
Andy_W
Well-known member
I think everyone fully accepts that we've 90% solved the death problem, and the most "at risk" problem, which is as good we will ever get, but that's not the entire problem.
I think they're more trying to hold up any major increases before summer helps things massively. The concern is probably the
40's-60's going wild in April/ May before they have been vaccinated or built up immunity, and ending up in the hospital, clogging up the wards but not actually dying (as this will ultimately still lead to deaths elsewhere). Pubs open, with the more active strains, in colder months may still pose a big risk or large volume for the 40's-60's etc.
They're probably thinking, if the businesses have lasted this long, they can handle another month or two. I don't agree with this mind, I think we should be going back in tiers from the 8th March, and managing it from there.
Laughing
Well-known member
Except tiers didn't work last year, so I am not sure they would work this year.
Johnson will be slow opening up society for the reasons he has given, the lockdown once over will be irreversible.
Caution is probably arising from the fear of new strains rather than 40-60 year olds going mad. I fall into that category and I seldom go mad. A new strain that is vaccine resistant could set us back a year.
The point you raise about hospitals clogging up is very likely true, death isn't the only metric being used, you would hope.
We are all hoping and expecting the vaccinations to be the end of the pandeic in it's current form, it wouldn't take a huge change in the virus to undo the vaccination work that has been completed. Even if a new vaccine could be engineered very quickly, you still get a surge in cases and people would still die whilst we were waiting for it.
El Guapo
Well-known member
I think caution is prudent in re-opening everything. I want to get on with my life as much as the next man but if a little caution for 2-3 months now means it’s fully controlled and ‘ends it’ so to speak allowing the breathing space to create variant vaccines for yearly boosters if required etc and ease nhs pressures then better that than setting ourselves back a year by rushing things.
Laughing
Well-known member
I agree el guapo, as I said on another thread, the order in which society will open up will be economically driven, not society driven.
Schools
Families
Socialising
Should be the order, it won't be. So whilst I agree a cautios approach makes sense, but it should be applied for the benefit of society not business.
newusername
Well-known member
Opening the schools is economic, people go back to work instead of home schooling.
Opening schools isn't risk free, there is a correlation between schools opening & greater transmission in the local community and that being reflected in senior schools.
bear66
Well-known member
They aren't 100% effective and will get lower with mutations. Keeping low infections and not importing mutations is the only way out of this, as it was from the beginning. The majority of hospitalisations are now younger age groups (under 65). So still some way to go.
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
If there's another surge in cases once lockdown is ended the government will have a decision to make as deaths lag by 3-4 weeks. They either back that the vaccine will keep deaths low and stay the course or bring back restrictions until the data comes in to show the vaccine works in real world conditions.
If the do the first option and deaths surge too, they are toast (well should be but won't be).
If the do the first option and deaths surge too, they are toast (well should be but won't be).
Alvez_48
Well-known member
Citations needed, the 'majority' of people are under 65 in particular.
Zero covid is absolute lunacy as a strategy we know your an old guy who hasn't had much impact. Think of others too please.
Laughing
Well-known member
I understand that, but I also understand the impact on childrens wellbeing being off school, I have a 10 year old. Whilst the governments motivation is economic, it's the right decision for the wrong reasons.
On transmission, this happens anywhere people gather, you have to balance social interactions which is why I have the order I do. Schools, families, socialising. These are all essential for peoples mental health and happiness. Clothes shopping isn't.
Andy_W
Well-known member
The tiers worked, but worked about 10-20% less than they were expecting, this is also a failure too mind, but it gave a lesson in how to use the tiers better (more cautiously).
The problem they had last year was they were 5 steps behind, they introduced tiers too late and then stayed in tiers too long, when they should have been locking down earlier. The tiers were not bad, but the timing was terrible, same with the lockdowns.
New strains are unavoidable, there's going to be new strains until the entire world is either immune, vaccinated or coronavirus doesn't exist (not happening). We can't stay locked down waiting for new strains, we just need to get better at detecting them and vaccinating for them. By "going mad" I mean this could be a mass of people meeting up with family and then mates, for meals or drinks, all at the same time, and mixing groups, I don't mean going to Magaluf
The appetite for the lockdowns is changing now, very quickly it seems, as people are very aware that 95% of the deaths were from one specific ground and that specific group should now be 99% covered from death (providing they got vaccinated). It's a harder sell to the public when there's no death, but the strange thing is this lag in the deaths is helping the lockdown at the minute, in a few weeks it won't be and it's always 3-4 weeks behind of course.
I can see why they're being cautious, as they were not last time when they should have been. The problem was, last time there was data telling us to be cautious and proactive, this time there doesn't appear to be data showing how we will go back into excess deaths.
Just to be clear, it makes little difference to myself, I'm fine locking down till May if I have to, I work from home and I'm quite secure, but there's a lot of others who will be increasingly thinking "what are we waiting for?". I think they have more justification now, certainly, 10 x more than we will have had on March the 8th last year.
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Randy
Well-known member
It's fair to say that as others have mentioned goalposts are getting moved all the time.
Variants, hybrids, zero covid, etc etc.
Mostly pushed by those with no skin in the game.
Alvez_48
Well-known member
It's becoming a bit much to see people justify the goal posts moving because their opinion is that entrenched that to view it from the other side is just too much for them to bare.
The country does not want this, the people do not want this, a vocal minority of fmttm does not speak for the rest of us.
The country does not want this, the people do not want this, a vocal minority of fmttm does not speak for the rest of us.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Everyone's got a lot of skin in the game, be that themselves, family, friends, health, health issues from covid, health issues from missing treatments as hospitals are dealing with covid , mental health, work, money, businesses, investments etc.
Andy_W
Well-known member
People are looking at the other sides, but there are 10 sides or a 100 sides, not just your side and theirs.
You seem to be picking on an older posters view, earlier in the thread, but your view doesn't represent the view of the 30-50 years olds who are my main friends and contacts, just so you're aware of that.
Alvez_48
Well-known member
I'm just getting very frustrated by the language used to justify lockdown measures bear knows that, that said apologies to you @bear66.
Your anecdotal words are worth nothing mind, who are these friends in the 30-50 age group you talk about? 2 people? 30 people? Just saying words to fit your argument? Don't worry about replying I'm not trying to start a fight in a phone box, have a good Saturday Andy UTB.