The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

bear66

Well-known member
So 257?

Will you now be doing this each day, reporting on the date of passing, as some folks still believe the number reported is the number that passed in the last 24 hours believe it or not.
No. 398 deaths not previously reported. No change, just that the 7 day death rate didn't really decrease yesterday and, sadly, increased again today.

Hopefully the falloff in cases following Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish and English restrictions continues and that begins to slow the numbers of deaths.
 

Alvez_48

Well-known member
It's funny that you still don't get that the deaths on any given 'day' have nothing to do with the date of death bear... Ignoring Randy's perfectly valid point.
 

bear66

Well-known member
It's funny that you still don't get that the deaths on any given 'day' have nothing to do with the date of death bear... Ignoring Randy's perfectly valid point.
I have never said the figures are the number of deaths from the day before. They are as reported (up until 5pm) on the day before and will be from a number of days. The reality is that whilst the death rate is rising, the number of deaths will, on average, be higher than the reported figures. When we reach the peak, the number of deaths will be lower than the reported figure. We're still on a rising trajectory. Ultimately it is only a 'good' approximation as we will find out the true number of deaths each Tuesday for a period that ended 10 days previously.
 

bear66

Well-known member
As alvez has already said you have either of ignored or missed my point. Which is fine.
I have never said the figures are the number of deaths from the day before. They are as reported (up until 5pm) on the day before and will be from a number of days. The reality is that whilst the death rate is rising, the number of deaths will, on average, be higher than the reported figures. When we reach the peak, the number of deaths will be lower than the reported figure. We're still on a rising trajectory. Ultimately it is only a 'good' approximation as we will find out the true number of deaths each Tuesday for a period that ended 10 days previously.
 

RandySavage

Well-known member
I have never said the figures are the number of deaths from the day before. They are as reported (up until 5pm) on the day before and will be from a number of days. The reality is that whilst the death rate is rising, the number of deaths will, on average, be higher than the reported figures. When we reach the peak, the number of deaths will be lower than the reported figure. We're still on a rising trajectory. Ultimately it is only a 'good' approximation as we will find out the true number of deaths each Tuesday for a period that ended 10 days previously.
I'm saying you need to start reporting dates of these deaths as new users to this site will be looking at them and getting the wrong idea.
 

bear66

Well-known member
I'm saying you need to start reporting dates of these deaths as new users to this site will be looking at them and getting the wrong idea.
You can do that if you like. The figures will be 2-3 weeks out of date. The graph I showed for Sweden earlier in the thread shows how misleading presenting the data that way compared with the UK method used by all but the odd country (just one on Worldometer).

I was hoping the slight fall yesterday indicated we had turned a corner; with today's figure that doesn't appear to be the case yet.
 

bear66

Well-known member
I'm saying you need to start reporting dates of these deaths as new users to this site will be looking at them and getting the wrong idea.
This new more severe tier system on 2 December will hopefully leave your work place able to open again. The rest of Teesside will probably be upped a tier, with more restrictions than before 5 November.
 

BoroJake

New member
Really don’t understand this reporting by the day of death point people like to make. If you did what they said the figures for the day would be underestimated for a number of weeks. Deaths would keep getting added on for weeks and you would always be looking weeks back to see a trend. Maybe I’m just misunderstanding their point
 

GazC_MFC

Well-known member
So 257?

Will you now be doing this each day, reporting on the date of passing, as some folks still believe the number reported is the number that passed in the last 24 hours believe it or not.
I mean you say will you being doing this every day, but bear hadn’t even mentioned the date of passing.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 18,662 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 19,875
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 4.2% to 20,390 per day, following 4.5% decrease yesterday (and 6th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 19.5% lower than one week ago (from 13.8% lower yesterday) and 9.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 6.7% lower yesterday and 10.0% higher 7 days ago)
• 398 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 341 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 8.0% to 442 per day, following 4.1% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 7.0% higher than one week ago (from 0.6% lower yesterday) and 32.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 22.6% higher yesterday and 58.7% higher 7 days ago)
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
As Bear has pointed out, the "processing update" (which resulted in 141 deaths being under-reported yesterday and then added to today's figures) means that we shouldn't really have seen the supposed 4.1% fall in the 7-day average yesterday. Had the figures been reported accurately, we would have seen a 0.7% increase yesterday, followed by a 3.0% increase today.

The 7-day average itself, however, remains the same at 442 per day (although this error will probably result in a similar issue next weekend).
 
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Statto1

Well-known member
Cheers Bear & Billy, all makes perfect sense (y)

It's bizarre that some very vocal people on here could not figure that out, yet seem so confident sharing numbers they have no grasp on, which are misleading, misinformed or incomplete.

If anyone else is confused, just look on here, it's a simple starting point:

It shows the deaths by date of death (don't rely on last few days, as it takes a couple of days to filter through) and date reported (low on weekends, as less staff to do paperwork and sort out records)

We're actually one of the best with the daily data and are good at being up to date, one thing we have got right.

The ONS weekly sheets are good for refining the current numbers, but they can be misleading during periods of sharp increase, like we've been in. For example, the latest excess deaths figures, released on the 17th of november, were for week ending 6th of november, so still has October deaths in it! Most of those dying of covid, in those numbers will have caught the virus around mid October, as it often takes 2-3 weeks to die.

That's why if anyone says "but we're on *insert low number* of excess deaths", just keep in mind that it's only including covid cases from 5 weeks ago, and a lot has happened since then.

But it's simple to see where the ONS figures are heading as Cases/ Covid Deaths/ Total Deaths/ Excess deaths and lockdown measures/ Tiers all correlate incredibly well.
 

Jostler

Well-known member
As of 9am on 23 November, 1,527,495 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 15,450.

206 deaths were reported today

63,873 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate.
A big WoW drop. I was sceptical given the numbers have been around the 19/20k mark for the past week, but good to see a drop. Fingers crossed it isn't a reporting error like we've seen previously.
 

bear66

Well-known member
A big WoW drop. I was sceptical given the numbers have been around the 19/20k mark for the past week, but good to see a drop. Fingers crossed it isn't a reporting error like we've seen previously.
Last Monday was odd in that there was a big adjustment. But, at face value, the 7 day average has fallen, although not for the Teesside area as cases were dramatically lower a week ago. Deaths are 7 less than last Monday.
 
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