The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

bear66

Well-known member
I trust he won't reply, but, oh dear, again he failed to realise Sweden adds deaths retrospectively, this has only been known for about 5 months. He's linking something showing a decline from 9th to today (yet they don't have all the numbers in for up to 10 days). It's like Trump stopping the count, before all the votes come in. The daily deaths chart gives an indication that they're permanently in decline, but keep an eye on the figures for a set time frame, and check them a week later, they're two different stories.

Anyway, lets see where 11-17th Nov deaths look like next week, once all the figures are in. They're going to be much worse unfortunately.
But one things for sure, that peak around the 9th wasn't shown on the 9th.

Bear posted the below yesterday on the Sweden thread, which explains it better, and funnily enough there were no replies after that...wonder why. Info from this link https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sweden-death-reporting

View attachment 9240

This is Sweden's cases and intensive care admissions, they're up by 50% cases and nearly 100% ICU admissions, in a week. I don't think that's going to end up in less deaths, like he's trying to claim. There's no sign of this levelling off for them yet either, which is why their PM is pleading with the people to take more care and keep more distance.

View attachment 9243
Another sad day for Sweden today with 7240 cases reported, their highest daily figure to date, and 66 deaths. Hopefully the restrictions now being imposed and pleas for people to obey the rules will lead to better things.
 

Statto1

Well-known member
Another sad day for Sweden today with 7240 cases reported, their highest daily figure to date, and 66 deaths. Hopefully the restrictions now being imposed and pleas for people to obey the rules will lead to better things.
Where did you see that info Bear? I take it that's 66 deaths announced today, but distributed over the last 10 days or so?

They're in for another disaster, the rate of climb for their cases is really high and 7k is a lot of cases for 10m people, the thing is the deaths of those wont happen for another two weeks or so and they won't appear on the charts for another week or so after that.

They could have three weeks of steep rises, even if they get a grip on it now, but judging by what their PM is saying, it's not enough.
I hope their second wave isn't as bad as their first and bet Tegnell is a bit worried now.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Where did you see that info Bear? I take it that's 66 deaths announced today, but distributed over the last 10 days or so?

They're in for another disaster, the rate of climb for their cases is really high and 7k is a lot of cases for 10m people, the thing is the deaths of those wont happen for another two weeks or so and they won't appear on the charts for another week or so after that.

They could have three weeks of steep rises, even if they get a grip on it now, but judging by what their PM is saying, it's not enough.
I hope their second wave isn't as bad as their first and bet Tegnell is a bit worried now.
Yes. Distributed over three weeks looking at the graph. I think it's about 234 deaths reported this week.

Figures updated here on Mondays to Fridays.
 

Statto1

Well-known member
Yes. Distributed over three weeks looking at the graph. I think it's about 234 deaths reported this week.

Figures updated here on Mondays to Fridays.
Yeah I know about that site, but find it hard to see where their daily announcements come from, other than looking at the change in their figures for deaths etc, even then it's hard without having before and after graphs. They need a case drop and a deaths drop for successive weeks before it will appear they have a grip on it. The PM sounds desperate now, reading his comments, hopefully the public listen (which I imagine they will), but I don't think it will be enough, not coming into winter.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Yeah I know about that site, but find it hard to see where their daily announcements come from, other than looking at the change in their figures for deaths etc, even then it's hard without having before and after graphs. They need a case drop and a deaths drop for successive weeks before it will appear they have a grip on it. The PM sounds desperate now, reading his comments, hopefully the public listen (which I imagine they will), but I dlon't think it will be enough, not coming into winter.
Lots of interesting links appear on the newsnow site here

There is a link there on why Finland may have done so well by comparison. Interesting how the culture of a country can be so important. (See Peru for the opposite effect.)

Link
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 20 November, 1,473,508 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 20,252.

511 deaths were reported today.

63,873 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 20,252 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 22,915
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 4.3% to 22,287 per day, following 6.1% decrease yesterday (and 4th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 8.8% lower than one week ago (from 2.4% lower yesterday) and 0.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 3.3% higher yesterday and 7.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 511 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 501 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 4.7% to 426 per day, following 2.1% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 5.4% higher than one week ago (from 1.4% higher yesterday) and 32.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 31.5% higher yesterday and 70.6% higher 7 days ago)
 

Statto1

Well-known member
Lots of interesting links appear on the newsnow site here

There is a link there on why Finland may have done so well by comparison. Interesting how the culture of a country can be so important. (See Peru for the opposite effect.)

Link
Ah great, cheers for that, only ever used that site for Boro transfer rumours!!
 

Statto1

Well-known member
There is a link there on why Finland may have done so well by comparison. Interesting how the culture of a country can be so important. (See Peru for the opposite effect.)
Link

That Finland story sounds like a dream of what a competent government and caring population can do, well done, and good look to them. Sounds like they listened to the advice of the experts, and actually did it, which is pretty much like how most of Asia advised in February.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Comparing Wave 2 with Wave 1:

Highest number of positive tests (7-day average) as a proportion of all tests processed (7-day average) since 6th May (3 days later than last week).
Highest 7-day average for hospital admissions since 21st April (2 days earlier than last week).
Highest number of people in hospital since 22nd April (3 days earlier than last week).
Highest number of people on ventilation since 11th May (4 days earlier than last week).
Highest 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test since 11th May (1 day earlier than last week).
First instance of four consecutive days with 500 or more new deaths announced since 2nd May (6 days earlier than last week's comparison with 370 or more deaths on four consecutive days).
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
As can be seen from the above figures, for all of them there is fewer than 7 days' difference when comparing against last week's position (indeed, proportion of positive cases appears to be reversing slightly). This is a good sign and means that, at the very least, the rate of increase across all indicators is slowing.
 

SmallTown

Well-known member
That Finland story sounds like a dream of what a competent government and caring population can do, well done, and good look to them. Sounds like they listened to the advice of the experts, and actually did it, which is pretty much like how most of Asia advised in February.
I also feel that Finland has a New Zealand style advantage in that it's isolated and has a small, spread out population. I listen to a formula 1 podcast and they have asked a couple of Finnish drivers how they are coping with self isolation. Both of them lived in the North and said it's just a way of life being isolated here

If you can start catching it from trees, then they are screwed!
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 21 November, 1,493,383 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 19,875.

341 deaths were reported today.

63,873 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 19,875 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 20,252
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 4.5% to 21,290 per day, following 4.3% decrease yesterday (and 5th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 13.8% lower than one week ago (from 8.8% lower yesterday) and 6.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 0.5% lower yesterday and 9.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 341 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 511 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 4.1% to 409 per day, following 4.7% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 0.6% lower than one week ago (from 5.4% higher yesterday) and 22.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 32.8% higher yesterday and 59.0% higher 7 days ago)
 

Statto1

Well-known member
I also feel that Finland has a New Zealand style advantage in that it's isolated and has a small, spread out population. I listen to a formula 1 podcast and they have asked a couple of Finnish drivers how they are coping with self isolation. Both of them lived in the North and said it's just a way of life being isolated here

If you can start catching it from trees, then they are screwed!
That's got to play a big part, just wonder whether it will ever be proven, and how?

All of the nordic countries in that direction should have had a massive advantage over the rest of Europe, up to now though. They're all pretty isolated don't get much road traffic, air traffic or tourists and none of them are densley populated. The only outlier there is Denmark, being a thoroughfare and densly populated, they should have probably had it the hardest or the nordics. We don't know how much of an impact all of that has for certain, but as it's a proximity virus, then distance and less visitors can only be a good thing. It's a lot colder in Norway,Sweden and Finland than here though, so contacts indoors could be a problem coming into winter, which they've not had to deal with yet.

Seeing Finland and Norway doing well just amplifies how badly Sweden have done, they shouldn't have been anywhere near our death rate, with us being so inept, late to react, and with ignorant public. At least Spain and Italy had the excuse of a lot less notice.

Give me Sweden/ Finlands people and way of life, but with the Finland coronavirus methods and move the UK south 1,000 miles and I would be much happier, not asking for a lot :)
 

SmallTown

Well-known member
Looks like the early signs we’ve peaked at least.
I was thinking that. The 7 day average of cases isn't rising anymore.

Time for VERY Cautious Optimism? We have a very long and dangerous road ahead but let's hope the situation we have now is the worst it gets.
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 22 November, 1,512,045 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 18,662.

398 deaths were reported today (includes 141 deaths that should have been reported yesterday)

63,873 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate.
 
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