Herd Immunity

Today is herd immunity day!

😎
Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely.

So unlikely to have any more cases from today!

It looks as if Primark and barbers are carrying out a trial to confirm if this is the case.
 
It was probably 94% of what two doses would give then. So less than 75%.
Possibly Bear, though that is not how my aged memory recalls it. I think the language used was "as effective after 3 weeks". In any event my point is, what is the risk today for a 55 year old with no underlying health problems after having had 1 dose of vaccine. Whats the risk to an 85 year old with 2 doses.

I'll be honest I don't know. SAGE almost certainly do.

Johnson is playing a game with us to maintain emergency legislation. I have no problem with maintaining the current regulations, if someone shows me the data that suggests it is required to get risk down to a more normal level of risk that we live with every day.

All that misses the point that the government are sounding out legislation that tells us where we can hug. It is ludicrous. It plays into the governments hands to have us all afraid.
 
Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely.

So unlikely to have any more cases from today!

It looks as if Primark and barbers are carrying out a trial to confirm if this is the case.

And if cases do go up (people don't have to be poorly to be a case remember) then pubs will still be blamed 🤣
 
Possibly Bear, though that is not how my aged memory recalls it. I think the language used was "as effective after 3 weeks". In any event my point is, what is the risk today for a 55 year old with no underlying health problems after having had 1 dose of vaccine. Whats the risk to an 85 year old with 2 doses.

I'll be honest I don't know. SAGE almost certainly do.

Johnson is playing a game with us to maintain emergency legislation. I have no problem with maintaining the current regulations, if someone shows me the data that suggests it is required to get risk down to a more normal level of risk that we live with every day.

All that misses the point that the government are sounding out legislation that tells us where we can hug. It is ludicrous. It plays into the governments hands to have us all afraid.
Perhaps it comes from this paper which suggests 76% efficacy from one dose and 81.3% with two doses with a 12 weeks between doses.
 
I agree we must be at herd immunity point in the UK - We have around 55% of adults vaccinated to some degree plus lots of younger people have had the virus. OK I have not got detailed stats but it must at least 75% of the adult population have had it or vaccinated. For Spanish Flu approx 30% was enough for herd immunity and it killed 250,000 people in this country, is Covid19 over 2 times worse? With Spanish flu some people died with 24 hours of catching it.

There will be issues with imported virus - at least there are some more serious checks on peole coming in now - why did it take 10 months to implement them? why is there still rules like the Johnson rule where UK people can travel to their overseas holiday homes if selling them or preparaing to sell them, isn't preventing Covid19 more important?
 
Perhaps it comes from this paper which suggests 76% efficacy from one dose and 81.3% with two doses with a 12 weeks between doses.
Maybe bear, as I say, I don't really recall, though I do know I read that article.

Even with those figures the rise in efficacy between 1 and 2 is quite small, whilst still having a potential impact, admittedly.

There have been what nearly 5,000 deaths among the under 60's with covid on the death certificate. We don't know what the fatality rate is because we don't know how many have had covid, but if you are under 60 your chances of dying from covid are very small. If you are over 55 you will now have had at least 1 dose, or been offered one. If you are in the extremely high risk categories you have had 2 doses.

A risk analysis should have been carried out so we can assess our own risk and decide how best to manage that risk,

I suspect we maybe getting to the point where we dont actually require governmental intervention now within our own borders.
 
We should have some real stats from the general population on first doses by now i.e how many vaccinated in January have caught Covid19? of those how many hospitalised and of those how many have died.

I would expect a dramatic drop in deaths in the elderly population and frontline health workers by now.

I know only 7 people reported dead in the UK on Sunday - ordinary flu normally kills more than that per day.
 
Maybe bear, as I say, I don't really recall, though I do know I read that article.

Even with those figures the rise in efficacy between 1 and 2 is quite small, whilst still having a potential impact, admittedly.

There have been what nearly 5,000 deaths among the under 60's with covid on the death certificate. We don't know what the fatality rate is because we don't know how many have had covid, but if you are under 60 your chances of dying from covid are very small. If you are over 55 you will now have had at least 1 dose, or been offered one. If you are in the extremely high risk categories you have had 2 doses.

A risk analysis should have been carried out so we can assess our own risk and decide how best to manage that risk,

I suspect we maybe getting to the point where we dont actually require governmental intervention now within our own borders.
The really odd thing is they suggest the overall efficacy would be 55% with the second dose less than 6 weeks after the first. (I think I'm reading it correctly!) Most countries aren't following the 12 week second dose.
 
Don't forget about the often misused fist bump. 😎
Going to be weird going back to meetings in the summer, when people won't know whether to shake hands, fist bump or just do nothing.

Fist bump's don't seem to be used in my industry, by people who have never met, but some still try and shake hands and were doing last year. Most don't though, but there's always a weird 2-minute small talk chat about the "not doing handshakes at this time".

Same as seeing some mates last summer, those were fist bump times, or elbows, but I wonder if handshaking will become the norm again. I bet loads will, and then be thinking about it until they nip away to wash their hands or get sanitized :ROFLMAO:
 
Shaking hands is quite archaic I have done it for work and with my dad and fil.

An hello is just a good unless you carry a sword.
 
Shaking hands is quite archaic I have done it for work and with my dad and fil.

An hello is just a good unless you carry a sword.
Aye, it is, construction is quite archaic though, from those on-site at least. The back end is a bit more "modern", but not by much.
 
We should have some real stats from the general population on first doses by now i.e how many vaccinated in January have caught Covid19? of those how many hospitalised and of those how many have died.

I would expect a dramatic drop in deaths in the elderly population and frontline health workers by now.

I know only 7 people reported dead in the UK on Sunday - ordinary flu normally kills more than that per day.
You can't use one day's statistics Redwurzel. 7 day average is currently 36 deaths per day.
 
You can't use one day's statistics Redwurzel. 7 day average is currently 36 deaths per day.
You're right BoroFur, but I don't think that is what Redwurzel is suggesting. Some data over time, tracking vaccinated folks and the rate of infection and ultimately mortality rate.

This would be really useful to get a picture of how effective vaccinations are going to be in saving lives. We have what, 30 million first dose vaccinations and about 7 million second doses.

We should be able to provide some data for these people so we can get a clearer picture of where we are now and where we will be in 3 months or 6 months.

You might be forgiven for thinking the government don't want us to know.
 
You're right BoroFur, but I don't think that is what Redwurzel is suggesting. Some data over time, tracking vaccinated folks and the rate of infection and ultimately mortality rate.

This would be really useful to get a picture of how effective vaccinations are going to be in saving lives. We have what, 30 million first dose vaccinations and about 7 million second doses.

We should be able to provide some data for these people so we can get a clearer picture of where we are now and where we will be in 3 months or 6 months.

You might be forgiven for thinking the government don't want us to know.
It was just the comparison to flu deaths and numbers thereof I was picking up on. If we're doing comparisons the correct data needs to be used.

Yes regarding doses, the Phase 1 1st dose target has been achieved recently but there was no fanfare which is surprising. We're also beyond 50% of Phase 1 2nd doses to the top 4 priority groups and well on target to achieve 100% by the beginning of May.
 
The 7 was to show how low the death rate is - that's 7 deaths in a population of 66 million people. I am aware of trends and the figures are dropping from around 1200 per day in late Jan. The decline in deaths has been a bit faster than in the first wave.

Flu normally kills 17,000 people per year or 350 people per week or 50 per day. OK the vast majority are elderly, but I have never heard of a lock down against Flu. We could of course but we would be forever in lock down unless everyone was vaccinated. Maybe I am a cynic, but it seems to matter who is dying, if its low income old people or people in poor nations it does not have the impact of a middle class 55 year old in leafy surburb of England.

My mum was very seriously ill in 1957 with Asian Flu when she was a young adult and off work for 3 weeks. She thought she would not pull through. At the time she used to cycle over 50 miles a day on the weekend and 15 miles a day during the week and thus was very fit. There was no lockdowns and her employer went round to her house to check she was not making it up. However her GP would only enter her bedroom with a mask. It does fascinate me how this virus has been treated by the media and authorities compared with past ones. We seem to be living more in a control society, but its a bit of an illusion of control at times as its difficult to accurately control the unknown.

I do believe in the current precautions as its best to do a bit of overkill, but to me we are getting on top of Covid19. This country has been blasted by C19, but in some ways that gives some protection on top of use of the vaccines. Of course there will be some on here that say herd immunity does not exist and the vaccines are not very effective.
 
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