Herd Immunity

The flu vaccine was around way, way before the year 2000. Since the 1930’s, in fact.



History of the Flu Vaccine

According to the Nuffield Trust:



Adult flu vaccination coverage

Even though there were a couple of years of high winter excess deaths in the 90's the numbers never exceeded 50,000 (and were sometimes much lower) - nowhere near the death toll we've seen from Covid in just over a year (127,000).

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Also, flu was (and is) a known quantity with more or less predictable numbers, an established treatment methodology and an existing vaccine.

Not comparable to this novel coronavirus at all.
He's probably refering to the vaccination of all over 65s in 2000, but the elderly and most vulnerable have been vaccinated since the 60s in the UK. The proportion of over 65s vaccinated increased from about 35% to 72% over the last 50 years.
 
The flu vaccine was around way, way before the year 2000. Since the 1930’s, in fact.



History of the Flu Vaccine

According to the Nuffield Trust:



Adult flu vaccination coverage

Even though there were a couple of years of high winter excess deaths in the 90's the numbers never exceeded 50,000 (and were sometimes much lower) - nowhere near the death toll we've seen from Covid in just over a year (127,000).

View attachment 16917

Also, flu was (and is) a known quantity with more or less predictable numbers, an established treatment methodology and an existing vaccine.

Not comparable to this novel coronavirus at all.
Minus 25% from 126K (you know the 1/4 of virus deaths not caused by Covid as recently reported - will be more), then divide in half for TWO seasons (as one normally does) 2019/20 & 2020/21, and you have 47K deaths per season-year... which is more or less same as a busy seasonal flu year. The endless running total is just more fear and diversion.
I comment as you seem to imply that it's gone from never exceeding 50k to 127k and that's misleading.
 
Minus 25% from 126K (you know the 1/4 of virus deaths not caused by Covid as recently reported - will be more)
No it hasn't.
, then divide in half for TWO seasons (as one normally does) 2019/20 & 2020/21, and you have 47K deaths per season-year... which is more or less same as a busy seasonal flu year. The endless running total is just more fear and diversio
No it isn't.
I comment as you seem to imply that it's gone from never exceeding 50k to 127k and that's misleading.
You're right. It's misleading, it's much higher.
 
Minus 25% from 126K (you know the 1/4 of virus deaths not caused by Covid as recently reported - will be more), then divide in half for TWO seasons (as one normally does) 2019/20 & 2020/21, and you have 47K deaths per season-year... which is more or less same as a busy seasonal flu year. The endless running total is just more fear and diversion.
I comment as you seem to imply that it's gone from never exceeding 50k to 127k and that's misleading.
Bear has covered that load of BS, but to back him up.

25% reduction? If you're looking at reducing, then you may be keen on the accuracy, so should likely also look at where there are possible (definite) increases too? Maybe also factor in the thousands that were not tested, or those that were missed, or those outside 28 days?

Since when was 24 March (when we hit 1,000 deaths and still <1% of the total), to Mid April 21 two flu seasons? It's one, maybe 1.06 at best, seeing as Flu season is mainly classed as December to March, say 17 weeks.

By posting such blatant crap, it throws every single thing you write into major doubt, it does your argument zero favours, why not just be honest?
 
To insinuate that Covid has taken a -50k flu season to a 126k+ is misleading, the number is spread over the best part of 2 seasons and yes the 126k is vastly overplayed.
 
Bear has covered that load of BS, but to back him up.

25% reduction? If you're looking at reducing, then you may be keen on the accuracy, so should likely also look at where there are possible (definite) increases too? Maybe also factor in the thousands that were not tested, or those that were missed, or those outside 28 days?

Since when was 24 March (when we hit 1,000 deaths and still <1% of the total), to Mid April 21 two flu seasons? It's one, maybe 1.06 at best, seeing as Flu season is mainly classed as December to March, say 17 weeks.

By posting such blatant crap, it throws every single thing you write into major doubt, it does your argument zero favours, why not just be honest?
There was a Telegraph report based on one ONS weekly report (the last one) which has 25% of deaths where covid isn't the primary factor but a contributing factor. There was a strange period last year where we had a pneumonia epidemic for some reason in the middle of a covid epidemic!

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There was a Telegraph report based on one ONS weekly report (the last one) which has 25% of deaths where covid isn't the primary factor but a contributing factor. There was a strange period last year where we had a pneumonia epidemic for some reason in the middle of a covid epidemic!

View attachment 16928
Why's that strange. Other forms of death are still happening every day. Majority of them at the moment causing more deaths than covid. ☹️
 
To insinuate that Covid has taken a -50k flu season to a 126k+ is misleading, the number is spread over the best part of 2 seasons and yes the 126k is vastly overplayed.
That's absolute rubbish as well. 1,692 people died of the flu in 2018/2019. Why make this nonsense up?
 
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This data from NHS England shows that nearly 96% of those who supposedly died WITH Covid had pre-existing conditions. So, I think that figure of 25% is more than disingenuous.
 
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This data from NHS England shows that nearly 96% of those who supposedly died WITH Covid had pre-existing conditions. So, I think that figure of 25% is more than disingenuous.
They wouldn't have died as the 5 year average has people living with pre-existing conditions every year. Spiegelhalter looked at this in terms of the ages and pre-existing conditions and estimated that the average person died 10 years earlier than they would have done. I have two relatives who have had Type 1 diabetes for 43 and 63 years. Just because they have diabetes doesn't mean death is imminent . . . . although if they got covid their risk of dying would increase significantly.
 
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The last 30 years sees 2020 not even in the top 10 for excess deaths. Average age of Covid fatality is 82 (and with 2 co morbidity's), average age of death is 82.
 
The last 30 years sees 2020 not even in the top 10 for excess deaths. Average age of Covid fatality is 82 (and with 2 co morbidity's), average age of death is 82.
For higher excess deaths go to WW2 which was more than 30 years ago, before that you'd have to go to WW1 and before that the potato blight in the 1840s.
 
For higher excess deaths go to WW2 which was more than 30 years ago, before that you'd have to go to WW1 and before that the potato blight in the 1840s.
But that would be silly, comparing the last 30 years where lifestyles haven't really changed is fair.
 
Why's that strange. Other forms of death are still happening every day. Majority of them at the moment causing more deaths than covid. ☹️
It's strange because it's not logical to think it was more plausible that there was an unmentioned pneumonia epidemic, over a proven covid pandemic, it's bonkers. Even more so as it was the exact same time as the pandemic 1st wave peak, when we had little covid testing, and also the "pneumonia epidemic" miraculously went away when covid testing increased and as we got to grips with it.

Probability is not on the side of the "pneumonia pandemic", pneumonia was just blatantly used on the death cert as there were no tests or little covid experience.
 
To insinuate that Covid has taken a -50k flu season to a 126k+ is misleading, the number is spread over the best part of 2 seasons and yes the 126k is vastly overplayed.
Please let me know the start and end of these "two seasons".

I would assume you can fit them in between 23 March 2020 and 15 April 2021?
 
But that would be silly, comparing the last 30 years where lifestyles haven't really changed is fair.
So there were no occurrences in the last 30 years where excess deaths exceeded those in 2020.

I only went back 180 years to see if I could find 10 worse years. I couldn't.
 
Even if you do compare the Covid deaths with a high flu death year it is worth remembering these Covid deaths occurred despite 3 national lockdowns and over a year of social distancing restrictions (no indoor mixing/pubs shut/no football/cinema/theatre audiences) something which we have never done to reduce the spread of flu. It's clear that in a densely packed country like ours, without these restrictions the number of deaths/severe ilnesses would have been far far higher.
 
So there were no occurrences in the last 30 years where excess deaths exceeded those in 2020.

I only went back 180 years to see if I could find 10 worse years. I couldn't.
My post yesterday:
There were 608,002 deaths in England and Wales in 2020.

The 608,002 deaths figure works out as around 10.2 deaths per 1,000 people.

In 1999, the rate was 10.7, in 2000 it was 10.3, and from 2001-2003 it was 10.2.

The death rate was higher every year between 1991 and 2000 than in 2020, so 2020 had the joint-11th highest death rate over the past three decades.
 
My post yesterday:
There were 608,002 deaths in England and Wales in 2020.

The 608,002 deaths figure works out as around 10.2 deaths per 1,000 people.

In 1999, the rate was 10.7, in 2000 it was 10.3, and from 2001-2003 it was 10.2.

The death rate was higher every year between 1991 and 2000 than in 2020, so 2020 had the joint-11th highest death rate over the past three decades.

The last 30 years sees 2020 not even in the top 10 for excess deaths.

So you have no idea what excess deaths means? I suggest you do a bit of research before posting nonsense next time.
 
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