Benidorm Curfew/Spanish Lockdown.

spanishman

Well-known member
.... and as per my previous post, there'll be a backlash if this doesn't go through as well !
Just out of interest. Are you in favour or against this?

With people inland in the provinces allowed to move down to 2nd homes on the coast.

Plus perhaps others trying to get there through going over provincial boundaries illegally. I am not sure myself.

UPDATED: Less of a problem for my as we have less tourism. Also, a lot of the second homes are owned by people in the main town 10 minutes drive away inland from us. With our regional hospital now completely clear of the virus at the moment.
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Wednesday May 13

The scenario marked four days ago is confirmed. The weekly internal cadence is also repeated.

The cases repeat for the third day below 500 daily infections. Today, 439 (426 yesterday). The multiplication rate drops again a little, to 1.009. Very good signal for the control of the final phase of the first wave, which places it in an area where communities can fully monitor all new cases, and not just serious ones.

A new order has been issued for the autonomous communities to follow up on cases in this new phase, Order SND / 404/2020, of May 11. The strategy to be followed in Spain ?: early detection: “Once the most complicated moment of the crisis has been overcome and now that the different territories are already beginning to advance in the different phases provided for in the Plan for The Transition to a new normality, approved by the Agreement of the Council of Ministers of April 28, 2020, it is necessary to adapt and strengthen the information systems for epidemiological monitoring and surveillance, so that early detection of any case can be carried out that it can have an active infection and that, therefore, it can transmit the disease ”. This approach is translated into article 5 of the order that any suspected (symptomatic) case must be subjected to a PCR test within 24 hours. And that information is added and transmitted to the Ministry of Health. BOE access here.

In other words, Spain renounces the contagion contact tracking system, at least as a legal and formal requirement. Personally I find it very puzzling and dangerous. My hope is that many autonomous communities go one step further and do this process of tracing contacts to identify asymptomatic cases, since everything indicates that they are also contagious.

With respect to the distribution of cases by autonomous communities in the last 4 days, the rate per 100,000 inhabitants in all communities with high figures falls (Castillas, Navarra, Catalonia). In Aragon it remains stable.

184 deceased. Rise with respect to data from Monday and Tuesday, which confirms the weekly rhythm. It does not exceed the 200 barrier, so it remains at the new base this week. The multiplication rate remains at 1.024.
 

Malaguena

Well-known member
Just out of interest. Are you in favour or against this?

With people inland in the provinces allowed to move down to 2nd homes on the coast.

Plus perhaps others trying to get there through going over provincial boundaries illegally. I am not sure myself.

UPDATED: Less of a problem for my as we have less tourism. Also, a lot of the second homes are owned by people in the main town 10 minutes drive away inland from us. With our regional hospital now completely clear of the virus at the moment.
Speaking as a resident, I very strongly believe Malaga (the city) needs to start opening up - you are right though that we don't want the rest of the country piling in here just yet, and that's difficult to control.
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Thursday May 14

Today we understand a little more the situation we are in, after the publication of the first preliminary results of the national sero-epidemiology study by the Carlos III Health Institute. Their results indicate that 5% of the Spanish population is seropositive for the coronavirus, some 2.3 million people. Personally I expected it to be higher, close to 10%. They are data of great importance for the management of the crisis since it gives a dimension of the problem, eliminating uncertainties. The breakdown of the information disaggregated by provinces will be very useful to calibrate each step that is taken in the asymmetric return to activity and mobility.

It is highly appreciated that Spain has undertaken this macro study and, above all, that it has not delayed in publishing its first results. It is tremendously useful information for management. It is information that will also help to clear uncertainties in the rest of the countries of the world, especially in those that more or less directly are betting on massive immunity in the short term.

CoronavirusImaga14May2020A.jpg

I show the seroprevalence results grouped by autonomous communities. Madrid and Castilla La Mancha are by far the most affected communities, with more than 12% of the population infected. It is followed by Castilla y León and Navarra, with a third level for Catalonia and Aragon. The communities with the least relative contagion: Murcia, Asturias, Galicia, Andalusia and the Valencian Community.
CoronavirusImaga14May2020B.jpg

The seropositive rate leads to a coronavirus case fatality rate of 1.1%, a relatively high figure in the global estimated range. That would be 1.3% if we estimate the impact of the crisis with excess MoMo deaths. Applying a 1% case fatality rate, this would be the contagion rate situation in Europe. Only Belgium would be more extensive in the epidemic than Spain, with 7.1%. Countries with high contagion would be between 3 and 4.5%, with a high number of countries with contagion below 1%.
CoronavirusImaga14May2020C.jpg
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Friday May 15

All the trends of the week are confirmed, and we are now open to see in what new situation the data of Saturday and Sunday will put us.

I also provide new analysis that is extracted from the data of the national sero-epidemiology study published yesterday, on the impact of the virus and the disease by age.

138 deaths in the last 24 hours. In the same way that we were not in these last two days in an upturn in the direction of a change in trend, today's drop is only confirming that we are still at the stage reached this past week. Yes, we could hope that the days with less than 100 deaths reported will begin to arrive soon, the new stage of descent. The multiplication rate rebounded slightly, to 1.027.

549 new infections detected in the last 24 hours. Now we know that it may correspond to some 5,000 new real cases of contagion throughout Spain. In the line of all the data of the week. 7 consecutive days below 600 new infections. However, the multiplication rate rebounded to 1.009 because the daily data has stabilized.

The data that will be published tomorrow will indicate if there is a new slump in the control of the epidemic, and we are putting ourselves in the area of 150-300 daily this coming week. Otherwise, there would be too many fronts with the possibility of strong and rapid regrowth.

As the phase assignment to provinces that are in Phase 0 will be announced today, and more lightening measures may be approved in those that are in Phase 1, I show the results by autonomous community with respect to the last 7 days instead of 4 .

First, the total cases by community, for this week and last week, for comparison.

From Saturday 9 to Friday 15 May, 3,511 cases have been identified in Spain. 1,102 come from Catalonia, 556 from Castilla y León. Among the other communities with provinces in Phase 0, Madrid has 437 cases, Castilla La Mancha 276, Valencia 194 and Andalusia 170.

Five communities have less than 5 cases per day: Asturias, La Rioja, Cantabria, Murcia and Extremadura.

The only communities that see an increase in the number of cases are Murcia and the Canary Islands. Aragon repeats number.
CoronavirusImage15May2020.jpg
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Saturday May 16

I have added a new analysis on the different base scenarios of direct implications of a situation in Spain with 70% of its population infected by coronavirus. Access here.

Today's daily data shows progress in the drop in deaths and apparent stagnation in the number of infections. Apparent because Fernando Simón's team defends that it reflects the new stage in the test strategy.

104 reported deaths. New minimum and at the gates of counting and the deceased by dozens. We have already said that we know that the daily death toll will continue to drop, because the number of new infections has fallen a lot since three weeks ago. It pushes the multiplication rate down to 1.024.

539 infections in the last 24 hours. In line with the data for the whole week. The drop expected for the figures reported today and tomorrow has not arrived. The explanations given by Fernando Simón imply that there is a descent, but implicit. He affirms that the progressive incorporation of the communities to the new stage of testing is beginning to be noticed, and will continue in the coming days. They are no longer reserved for serious cases and health personnel, but instead go to the test stage for early detention: from now on, the test will be carried out on all those who come to health or care centers that present symptoms, even if they are slight. In this way, it is expected to control the majority of symptomatic cases. To also reach asymptomatic cases (which are also contagious), it is necessary to take the added step of tracing and testing contagious contacts. The autonomous communities are doing it to a greater or lesser extent, mainly from the primary care system.

In short, if during the severe phase of the crisis what the sero-epidemiology study tells us is that one out of ten real infections was tested, at this stage the distance will be reduced. If those 500 cases 3 weeks ago involved some 5,000 real new cases, today's can mean 1,500 cases. It is in this sense that Fernando Simón affirms that the downward trend in cases continues. However, since the multiplication rate is calculated on what is measured, it remains stable at 1.009.

Regarding the cases detected in the last four days by the autonomous communities, Catalonia reduced its weight below 30% nationally for the first time. Aragon continues in its less good trend of this last week.
CoronavirusImage16May2020.jpg
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Sunday May 17

The day came when the deceased are counted again by dozens and not by hundreds. A situation that we had not known for two months, on March 15. Situation already anticipated, but very welcome.

87 deaths are reported, which predicts that this week we will move to the bottom of the hundred deaths. We will return to the bar of the 100 deceased (Mars, Wednesday), without this signifying a worsening of the situation. Another notable drop in the multiplication rate, from 1.024 to 1.020.

Yesterday we reported 104 deaths when in reality the Ministry of Health announced 102. The divergence has its source again in the Ministry itself since in the official accounting of May 15 they gave a total of 27,459, and on May 16 27,563, that is, a difference of 104 deceased. There is no explanatory note for this mismatch. At this stage of the game it no longer comes from one more.

421 new infections. We remain in the final control area of the epidemic. We know that cases are going to decrease more slowly than before, due to the implementation of new early detection protocols, which will detect a higher percentage of all real infections. The multiplication rate remains at 1.009.

By autonomous community, in the group of infections in the last four days, the weight of Castilla y León and Valencia rose. Lower the Madrid and Basque Country.

Measured per 100,000 inhabitants, the one that concentrates the most cases in the last four days is Castilla y León.

In the third map you can see today's difference with data from a week ago.

VARIOUS IMAGES See: https://smreputationmetrics.wordpre...situacion-y-tendencia-tasa-de-multiplicacion/

We complete the information with the following graph, in which we integrate current situation and trend in the last week, in the number of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

With respect to the average for Spain, the graph shows quadrants with the situation of each community with respect to the average. It allows us to see that there is only one case in which infections are above average and the situation has worsened this week: Aragon. The rest of the communities with more cases than the average have improved their situation, the most, Catalonia. There is an important group of communities with few cases and that have also reduced contagions above the average. Galicia, Cantabria and Asturias stand out. A third group with special monitoring are those that are good by number of infections, but their trend is worse than the average: Balearic Islands, Andalusia and Murcia.

ANOTHER IMAGE. See: https://smreputationmetrics.wordpre...situacion-y-tendencia-tasa-de-multiplicacion/
 

Malaguena

Well-known member

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily Spanish coronavirus data being reported at a later time of day for a different daily time period. Here is a Google translation of what my preferred Spanish stats man has said:

Notice, data Monday May 18

Yesterday Fernando Simón announced that as of today the data for the day will no longer be with the information collected until 8:00 p.m. the day before, but until 24:00, to have the data for the calendar day. And that they will take their time to process the data, so they delay the time for communicating the results, in the afternoon. Therefore, our daily blog appointment with daily data will also happen in the afternoon.


So daily stats later in the day from now on.
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Monday May 18

Excellent trend movement both on the death front and on new cases detected.

59 deaths, second consecutive day below one hundred (28 less than yesterday). It takes us back to the figures of March 14, at the beginning of the explosion of devastating increasing daily figures. The multiplication rate was then 4. Total deaths were multiplied by 4 every 4 days. Now the rate falls to 1.014, from 1.020 yesterday. However, it is likely that we still bracketed some days with figures above 100 dead, without signifying a rebound: there are still thousands of hospitalized patients.

285 contagions detected in the last 24 hours (I do not know if today corresponds to the last 28 hours, due to the change in the accounting period). Positive surprise for me, since stable figures could be expected due to the expansion of the activation of the early detection strategy, with tests to anyone who comes with symptoms. These are already good global figures so that in each and every one of the communities they can monitor all new cases, a key factor in getting out of the first wave of the epidemic well. The rate returns to the level of 1.008.

Except for Catalonia, with 85 new cases, all communities have less than 50 new cases. These are acceptable figures to monitor all cases, in the hope that they will also monitor all the close contacts of those infected. Aragon continues without reducing its daily number of cases.

In cases for every 100,000 inhabitants in the last 4 days, it increased significantly in Navarra (today it has a notable rise of 30 cases).
 

Malaguena

Well-known member
Granada and Málaga provinces stay in phase 1, the rest if Andalucía moves to phase 2 from Monday 25 May 2020

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-...nday-madrid-and-barcelona-finally-in-phase-1/
The natives are restless - check out the photo of Calle Larios (main shopping street in Malaga) in the article.

I think now it's a case of "we've had enough" after 10 weeks of hard lockdown

http://www.surinenglish.com/national/202005/21/protests-grow-parliament-street-20200521210506.html
 

spanishman

Well-known member

Malaguena

Well-known member
I feel it is really foolish to release it too quickly. You will just lose many of the gains we have had recently.
I think the goodwill that the government has built up is now being eroded by some political game playing by a central government who don't have a majority, regional government flexing their muscles, the summer now having arrived, and yes, to some extent people having had enough .... and I can understand that

Also keeping Malaga and Granada back from Phase 1 and delaying their move to Phase 2, when the rest of Andalucia was released has gone down like a lead balloon here - should have been all or none I think
 

spanishman

Well-known member
I think the goodwill that the government has built up is now being eroded by some political game playing by a central government who don't have a majority, regional government flexing their muscles, the summer now having arrived, and yes, to some extent people having had enough .... and I can understand that

Also keeping Malaga and Granada back from Phase 1 and delaying their move to Phase 2, when the rest of Andalucia was released has gone down like a lead balloon here - should have been all or none I think
The big part of this is about managing expectations. The Spanish government has failed to do that recently.

I think that a statement that they made recently is a sensible one. Saying you have to stay in each phase for 2 weeks It has just been made too late.

As I said before this lock down release started. They made an error in the communication at the start. They published optimistic dates. That had no contingency. With no wiggle room.

They should have said then that they expect it to take at least 2 weeks to transition from one phase to the next. Right at the beginning. They should also have also been very clear that the rate of progression through phase would differ in different parts of the country. UPDATED: Including different provinces within autonomous regions. It was pretty obvious that this was going to happen.

If they had done this up front people would have known what to expect.
 
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