Benidorm Curfew/Spanish Lockdown.

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:

Data for Saturday, May 9

The predictions are fulfilled, and today's data improves on those of recent days. Tomorrow's data should reinforce today's. The levels of less than 1,000 cases are recovered, less than 200 deaths.

179 deceased (-50), again in the minimum area. To see if tomorrow the figure is already below 150. The multiplication rate remains stable at 1,034. 26,478 deaths since the start of the crisis.

604 cases declared in the last 24 hours (-491 compared to yesterday). As we anticipated, the rise in cases registered in recent days did not correspond to a rebound in cases, despite appearances. Tomorrow's number will give us clues for the evolution of the coming week. The multiplication rate drops again, now to 1,019.

Regarding the data on infections in the last four days, disaggregated by autonomous community, Catalonia continues to be the community that accumulates the most new cases (37.2% of the national total), but improves compared to yesterday, which weighed 3.1 plus percentage points. Castilla y León worsens its position, since it went from 11.3% yesterday to 12.1%. Madrid improves a percentage point.
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Although I give preference to the total case data, I show below the data of infections in the last 4 days per 100,000 inhabitants.

The communities with the highest intensity of cases are Navarra, Castilla y León and Catalonia, with more than 15 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

Of the other communities that have areas that have not passed to Phase 1, we see that Castilla La Mancha has 9.7 cases, Madrid 6.3, Valencia 3.2 and Andalusia 1.0.
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In connection with yesterday's announcement of which communities and areas went to Phase 1 and which remained in Phase 0, I have analyzed how this has been reflected in the searches that have been made in Google in the last 24 hours.

Phase 1 takes center stage over Phase 0
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By Autonomous Communities, those in which the searches regarding Phase 1 have been made with more intensity, the data indicates that they are concentrated in the Valencian Community, followed at a distance from Navarra, Castilla La Mancha and Aragón.
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With regard to searches on Phase 0, again the highest intensity of searches occurs in the Valencian Community, followed by Castilla La Mancha and Madrid. In communities with “fewer surprises” about expectation and verdict, the intensity of the search falls greatly.
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Malaguena

Well-known member
I feel it is for the best. Given that the province has had a higher number of infections. I feel that provincial boundaries are the easiest to police. Hopefully things with change there soon and you will get to phase 1.
The fear is that anger will start to simmer - already seen comments about people in Marbella moaning about it because it's Malaga City that has the (very marginally) worse figures than they have
 

spanishman

Well-known member
The fear is that anger will start to simmer - already seen comments about people in Marbella moaning about it because it's Malaga City that has the (very marginally) worse figures than they have
I appreciate that. Some people are always selfish. Not seeing the bigger picture. They seem to forget that this is being down to help protect them.
 

Malaguena

Well-known member

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:

Data Sunday May 10

Today the forecasts are also confirmed. Data from cases in the minimum area and the number of deaths for the first time below 150.

If the trend is repeated again, tomorrow and the day after, the figures will be somewhat worse. It is puzzling, because these patterns are not due to the actual evolution of the epidemic but to the way of accounting for it. As a citizen who does not know how to detail the accounting and registration system, it seems puzzling to me that after eight weeks the weekend effect continues to occur.

621 cases reported in the last 24 hours. 17 more than yesterday. The minimum contagion zone is maintained. The multiplication rate returns to 1,018.

Taking into account the cases registered in the last 4 days, Catalonia continues to be the most affected in total cases (almost 50% of all Spain). Madrid and Castilla y León contribute another 30% of the cases. In cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the most affected communities are Castilla y León, Cataluña and Navarra.
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143 deaths registered in the last 24 hours. 36 less than yesterday. It is the minimum since March 18. The multiplication rate drops from 1,034 to 1,030, which is the level it reached four days ago. 26,621 deaths in total.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:

Data Sunday May 10

Today the forecasts are also confirmed. Data from cases in the minimum area and the number of deaths for the first time below 150.

If the trend is repeated again, tomorrow and the day after, the figures will be somewhat worse. It is puzzling, because these patterns are not due to the actual evolution of the epidemic but to the way of accounting for it. As a citizen who does not know how to detail the accounting and registration system, it seems puzzling to me that after eight weeks the weekend effect continues to occur.

621 cases reported in the last 24 hours. 17 more than yesterday. The minimum contagion zone is maintained. The multiplication rate returns to 1,018.

Taking into account the cases registered in the last 4 days, Catalonia continues to be the most affected in total cases (almost 50% of all Spain). Madrid and Castilla y León contribute another 30% of the cases. In cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the most affected communities are Castilla y León, Cataluña and Navarra.
View attachment 2677
143 deaths registered in the last 24 hours. 36 less than yesterday. It is the minimum since March 18. The multiplication rate drops from 1,034 to 1,030, which is the level it reached four days ago. 26,621 deaths in total.
Looks like things are getting better. Is the multiplication rate Rx1000? If expect it to be below 1000 of it is.
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Looks like things are getting better. Is the multiplication rate Rx1000? If expect it to be below 1000 of it is.
Sorry for a bit of confusion here.

I put this through google translate and there is an issue with Spanish number formats. Plus also some explanation of the figures from ages ago I need to repeat again.

The Spanish use a , rather than a . to signify decimal places. So "The multiplication rate drops from 1,034 to 1,030" should read "The multiplication rate drops from 1.034 to 1.030" for the English.

Now for what the figures means. It is a multiplication rate for when comparing two consecutive 4 day average death rates for Spain. If the number reaches 1.0 there has been approximately 0 deaths recently. It is a multiplication rate of yesterday's 4 day average death rate compared with today's 4 day average death rate.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Sorry for a bit of confusion here.

I put this through google translate and there is an issue with Spanish number formats. Plus also some explanation of the figures from ages ago I need to repeat again.

The Spanish use a , rather than a . to signify decimal places. So "The multiplication rate drops from 1,034 to 1,030" should read "The multiplication rate drops from 1.034 to 1.030" for the English.

Now for what the figures means. It is a multiplication rate for when comparing two consecutive 4 day average death rates for Spain. If the number reaches 1.0 there has been approximately 0 deaths recently. It is a multiplication rate of yesterday's 4 day average death rate compared with today's 4 day average death rate.
Thanks for the explanation.
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Monday May 11

Yesterday's step down data is reinforced today. The risk that yesterday's data worsened today has not been met. We will see how much they are corrected with the data for Tuesday and Wednesday.

123 deaths reported today, 20 fewer than yesterday. New daily minimum in the lowering phase. It pushes significant drop in the multiplication rate, to 1.026.

The Ministry of Health announces 373 new cases (-248), again in the minimum area, in figures that are already manageable so that the autonomous communities can apply a true strategy for tracking positive contacts. The current expansion profile of the epidemic can be considered even lower if we consider that a significant percentage of positives are from health professionals. Yesterday, 42% of positives (265 cases) were from that group. In other words, it is not a matter of free contagion on the street, but of clearly defined foci.

The mismatch between total figures and new cases is again very large today, since it has included 2,721 "old" positives from Catalonia not reported so far. In the note they indicate a concise "the historical series will be updated in the coming days" to account for the mismatch.

Another novelty in the delivery of data by the Ministry of Health is that they finally add the positive results for antibody tests. There are 40,707 so far, which increases the number of total positives to 268,143. It is true that it is convenient to make the distinction between the two cases, since in the positives with antibody tests there are people with the virus that is no longer active, while all the positives with PCR correspond to people in active contagion.
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The Autonomous Communities that have identified the most additional positives with the antibody tests are Castilla La Mancha and Castilla y León, while the Canary Islands does not appear to use this type of test.
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As a percentage of the total number of tests carried out, the communities that have used the antibody tests the most are Murcia, Navarra and Castilla La Mancha.
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spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Tuesday May 12

After the good trend data for the weekend, there was an expectation of how much the data would be corrected upward. They are good because they maintain and reinforce the downward trend.

I have commented other times that I consider that the reference variable to calibrate the exit from the first wave of the crisis is the trend in infections. The rest of variables, deaths, ICU, hospitalizations, are tragic legacy of the explosion of cases in March, but they are marked by the dynamics of the epidemic. Unfortunately, they are already “written”, due to the fatal nature of this disease, once control of the hospital emergency has been resumed. On the other hand, if we have 500 cases instead of 2,000, we are ensuring the drop in deaths in the coming weeks.

Well, the trend in new infections is really well focused. 426 cases today. Four days below 700. It gives a strong push to the multiplication rate, which drops to 1.010. It's already 1.01! Total cases have increased by 1% in the last 4 days. A month ago it was 1.13. Two months ago, at the start of the climb, it was 4.4! The cases were multiplied by four every four days.

Starting today, I add a detailed graph of the number of daily cases because, fortunately, the evolution no longer looks good in the full graph, with that peak of 9,222 daily cases from March 31.

As for the distribution of cases registered in the last four days, the weight of Catalonia falls sharply in total cases, from 36.4% to 30.7% because it is released from a very bad day in which it accumulated more than half of new cases.

If we look at the numbers of cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last four days, Catalonia manages to go up to 8.1 when four days ago it was almost double. If we compare the situation today with that of four days ago for the communities with the most cases, Catalonia, Navarra, Castilla y León, La Rioja and Madrid improve, Castilla La Mancha and Aragón are stable

176 deceased (+53). Fourth day below 200. Except for a brief rebound in the next three days, it is likely that we are already heading towards the low of the 100 daily deaths. The death rate at 1.024.
 

Malaguena

Well-known member
Spanish prime minister looking to extend lock down for another month (rather than in two 2 week chunks)

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020...s-to-extend-state-of-alarm-for-another-month/

(Although looks like the site has problems at the moment - link was working a few minutes ago)
There'll definitely be a backlash to this - last time he bribed the Canary Islands government to vote for him with an extension to the job support scheme (much to the disgust of the Costa del Sol business groups, who didn't get it) and he'll have to pull another rabbit out of the hat to get this through
 
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