Benidorm Curfew/Spanish Lockdown.

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Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:

Data Sunday May 3

I arrive. We are already on the new step, one step below. The new, expected band is already being touched, with less than 200 deaths per day and cases that number in the hundreds.

838 new cases. First time under a thousand cases a day since March 12, in a pre-alarm state. 217,466 cases in total. Today there is also an inconsistency between the difference in total data and new cases, due to integration in the statistics of old cases in Galicia and Madrid. The multiplication rate remains at 1.03.

164 died in the last 24 hours. A notable drop of 112 compared to yesterday, or 40%. It is the new step to which we hoped to position ourselves after being several days in the high band of the 200 deceased. If the pattern of the previous weeks is followed, in the coming days we will move in a range of 130-230 deaths. Therefore, it is likely that some days the death toll will return above 200 without that signifying a rebound. 25,264 deaths in total. Today, further decline in the multiplication rate, to 1.04.
 
Now phase 0 of coming out of lock down across most of Spain. With the likelihood that my province (Almería) will move to phase 1 next Monday (11 May 2020).

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:

Data Monday May 4

Trend ratification. Today, a surprising drop in cases to 356. And the new level achieved yesterday in deceased remains, by repeating a figure below 200 daily, at 164.

New cases are below 500. We have to wait for confirmation in the coming days and if this dynamic continues, the nightmare of the first wave of the epidemic can be considered controlled. Because these figures announce the deactivation in the coming weeks of extraordinary hospital care and the flow of deceased. Two days ago it was below the 1,000 case barrier. 11 days ago there were more than 4,000 daily cases. 5 weeks ago we reached the maximum of 9,222 cases.

The rate of multiplication of cases descends a new step, and is already at 1.02.

The death toll from yesterday, 164. is repeated. Therefore, the new level reached is established, below the 200 deaths per day. 25,428 deaths since the start of the crisis. The multiplication rate remains at 1.04.
 
Some thoughts for today. I posted this on my blog a little earlier....

How things are changing now we are planning for movement towards a new normal

Rather than facts, this is just me writing a bit about how I feel about what is going on now...

After 7 weeks of relatively tight lock down things are loosening up a little. I have been allowed out for exercise on two occasions now (cycling the first day and walking yesterday). On both occasions we only spent around an hour from 8pm to around 9pm. Even though we are allowed to exercise until 11pm. As it gets dark around 9pm. Also, as it is mossie season at the moment, it is better to get home at a reasonable time.

We are looking forward to just under another week of evening exercise. There is little chance of us choosing the option of doing early morning outdoor exercise instead.

Then we hope that things will have improved enough to reach phase 1. Maybe on Monday 11 May 2020. We will have to wait and see.

The transition to phase 1 is exciting for one big reason for us. There is a chance that we might be allowed to play golf again. Yippeeee!!!!!. As yet, it is not clear whether this will be approved for phase 1. Also, it is not clear whether the Almerimar course will be ready in time. Mind you, it looked in fantastic condition when we took a peek at it while walking last night.

Another aspect of phase 1 is that we are allowed to go to the houses of other people. With various restrictions of course. This is something that we will use very sparingly at first.

Plus it is likely that we will be able to get our hair cut in the near future. Also, we should be able to get some appointments with the opticians. As there are a couple of things we need sorting out with them.

One worry I have for the short term future is as follows. Perhaps people in the province of Almería are being used as guinea pigs by the Junta de Andalucía. As our province is likely to be one of the first to move through the 4 phases of de-escalation. Hopefully this will not lead to there being a big increase in the numbers of infections here. Or even worse a big increase in the number of deaths in the province.

It is going to be a difficult balance to achieve while getting back to something closer to a normal life. While trying to protect the health of the community here. Particularly as we have a large number of friends who are of pensionable age. Also, we know of many people here who are clinically vulnerable.
 
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:

Data Tuesday May 5

Third consecutive day in the new lower area, to confirm that this new decline in the epidemic has been won. Cases remain below 1,000 and deaths below 200. The weekend effect is thus absorbed without a strong negative adjustment.

Incidentally, the effect of the weekend, that holidays affect both the accounting of cases and even deaths is something that those responsible for managing the crisis should address to mitigate it. It is not just a Spanish problem. The following charts show the daily evolution of cases and deaths in Europe. The impact of the weekend effect becomes even more evident.

That it is not able to report the complete data from Saturday and Sunday to its corresponding day, to bring the remnants to Monday and Tuesday (which communicate Tuesday and Wednesday) is a noise generator in crisis communication, altering its effectiveness. Trend information is generated that overestimates and underestimates the situation several times a week. For the next phases of the pandemic, improving at that point can be very profitable for managing communication in public opinion.

Picture5May2020.jpg

867 new cases are reported in the last 24 hours by 356 yesterday and 838 two days ago. It has already been pointed out that what is relevant at the moment is not that the number rise or fall with respect to the previous day, but rather that it remains in the range corresponding to the new step: between 400 and 1,000 cases a day. That of up to three days ago was between 1,100 and 1,500. 219,329 total cases. The multiplication rate remains at that already very low 1.02.

185 deaths reported in the last 24 hours, for 164 of the last two days. Exactly the same reading as with the cases. Today the new strip of less than 200 deaths per day is reaffirmed. There were more than 300 a week ago. 25,613 deaths in total. The multiplication rate takes another step downward and stands at 1.03.

Some will probably speak of a rebound. As long as what has been gained in a new range of figures is not lost, I sincerely believe that there is no rebound.
 
Good news.

I think it may be recorded deaths by coronvirus. As I think the method of measuring differs a bit from one autonomous region to another. Still good news though.

Keep safe.

Yes, no recorded Corona deaths

Don't know about up where you are but noticeably busier here over the last few days - more people out, more traffic, more shops open, road works back on again - just a general feel of, if not getting back to normal, starting to wake up again (y)

Stay safe to you and yours (and you Jaen if you're reading - us Andalucians need t stick together ;))
 
Yes, no recorded Corona deaths

Don't know about up where you are but noticeably busier here over the last few days - more people out, more traffic, more shops open, road works back on again - just a general feel of, if not getting back to normal, starting to wake up again (y)

Stay safe to you and yours (and you Jaen if you're reading - us Andalucians need t stick together ;))
Yeah. As long as you can thank me at some point in the longer term for being a guinea pig in the near future.

Looks like there is a push by Andalucía to open the beaches 2 weeks earlier than planned. I am worried that the economy is being prioritised over safety of the people in our region.

UPDATED: Seems like games now being played between regional and national government. A bit sad I think. The wrong time for it.
 
Yeah. As long as you can thank me at some point in the longer term for being a guinea pig in the near future.

Looks like there is a push by Andalucía to open the beaches 2 weeks earlier than planned. I am worried that the economy is being prioritised over safety of the people in our region.

UPDATED: Seems like games now being played between regional and national government. A bit sad I think. The wrong time for it.


What things are you being a guinea pig for ?
 
I can´t find the figures for Jaén specifically today but its looking good for Andalucia.

Here its been very busy each night at 8 o´clock but people are being sensible - keeping apart and the vast majority wearing masks.
 
What things are you being a guinea pig for ?
Provinces as supposed to go from phase 0 to phase 4 depending on results of loosening lock down. Huelva and Almería are the two least infected provinces in Andalucía.

The Junta de Andalucía has said that it wants Almería to be the test province for the autonomous region. With us trying to progress through the phases as quickly as possible. So they have proof for other provinces to then follow a similar path. Behind us at a slower pace. If we go through the 4 phases OK. Others can follow us through them.

That means that my province might be hit harder by a second wave than any other one in Andalucía. As a province this may not be too big a problem I guess. As long as the impact is not too great However I live in a community where there are a lot of old and clinically vulnerable people. So it is more dangerous for people here.
 
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Some political shenanigans needed to get approval to extend the lock down

https://www.diariodesevilla.es/espana/Sanchez-juega-bandas-salvar-prorroga_0_1461754389.html

Google translation:

Sánchez saves the extension thanks to Ciudadanos

The Government ties the support of the orange formation for the extension of the alarm. The PNV will also give its support.

Pedro Sánchez has been acquiring skills over time that are worth mentioning. Perhaps Iván Redondo, aulic and plenipotentiary advisor, drank from the source of Dominic Cummings, the bizarre and efficient adviser to Boris Johnson and ideologist of the campaign for Brexit in the vote in the United Kingdom in June 2016. The leaders who they were in favor of remaining in the EU, they were always behind the tricks devised by Cummings, who in the end got away with it. Something similar happens to Pablo Casado, an opposition leader, he never takes the initiative and goes to the trailer of the Prime Minister, trying to defuse the bombs.

Now, this Tuesday, it was another trial by fire for Sánchez, who dodged the mine and will carry out the extension of the state of alarm thanks to Ciudadanos. The Minister of Transport, José Luis Ábalos, already said it the day before: "State of alarm or chaos." Given this situation, what to do so that the grenade does not explode in your hands?

Married won the "no no no" sanchista on Monday, aggrieved by the unilaterality of the president's decisions, which first hits and then asks, a very Donald Trump strategy, by the way. Sánchez played two bands this Monday: on the one hand, he tried to convince Ciudadanos and PNV to give their support in plenary on Tuesday because the situation requires 15 days of alarm; on the other hand, he sent the recovered Carmen Calvo to persuade the PP barons to understand that it is best to extend this exceptional situation for two more weeks and then it will be seen.

And the first vice-president and, therefore, her boss achieved their purpose, but this one hours later paved the way further by reaching an agreement with Cs at night. This Wednesday the PNV has announced that it will also give its support. Consequently, Casado's ordeal evaporated as the orange formation and the jelzatle party saved the continuity of the exceptional state.

Sánchez hurried the last bullet in the Senate. "The only instrument to save lives is the state of alarm," he said to put more pressure on those who doubted whether to extend the period of confinement, the mother of the lamb in a situation in which the communities want to take sides and have decision-making capacity. It did so at the time that the request for the extension of the state of alarm reached the Congress, which the Council of Ministers approved in the morning and which warned that "there is no legal alternative" in ordinary legislation that allows restricting the movements of people in the Spanish territory.

In this game of mus it was necessary to see who envied with good cards and who was bluffing. The PSOE went directly to Citizens and to the PNV so as not to have to depend on the affirmative vote or abstention from the PP and to carry out a new biweekly extension. The leader of the orange formation, Inés Arrimadas, already said in the morning that she will advocate a new support for Sánchez as she is "totally predisposed" to protect the Spanish because she believes the "threats" from the Executive that if she got up on Saturday the state of alarm would arrive the disorder. Said and done.

He tied three points. 1) The Government will maintain weekly contacts with Cs to report on the health crisis, as well as dialogue and, where appropriate, agree on measures for the implementation of the de-escalation plan. 2) They agreed on the need to extend the state of alarm, a constitutional mechanism that should be prolonged only for the time strictly necessary. Therefore, in this spirit, the measures necessary to continue protecting Spaniards in the health, economic and social fields will be analyzed when their application is completed. 3) The Executive and Cs pledged to maintain the dialogue for the adaptation of the ERTE and the aid to SMEs and the self-employed so that they can adapt to the needs that occur beyond the state of alarm.

With this movement it is practically assumed that Sánchez guarantees the extension by needing more votes in favor than against this Tuesday in the Lower House. With the support of the ten Cs deputies, the Government would have the 155 votes of the PSOE and Podemos, in addition to the PRC, Teruel Exists, More Country and Commitments, with which it would reach 170, while the noes will hardly exceed 164 Still, the negotiations with the PNV, always faithful to hear proposals, continued at night and paid off in the morning.

Previously, the Executive President put Carmen Calvo to work to speak with the popular barons. The president of the Xunta, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, rejected an extension sine die but after receiving a call this Monday from the vice president, he admitted that "another thing is that the government needs time to organize itself." Also the president of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, opened up to give Sánchez another 15 days, as well as the Andalusian Juanma Moreno, who already said on Sunday that the "reasonable" thing would be that it not continue in force at the end of May. Genoa was shot in the butt and the shrewd Sanchez took another rabbit out of his hat that left Casado helpless.
 
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