Benidorm Curfew/Spanish Lockdown.

It's going to be a hell of a lot more difficult to come out of draconian measures/state of emergency than it was to adopt them. However, this is probably a good thing as it will, by constitutional necessity, have to be done gradually and with concensus.
 
borolad259 said:
It's going to be a hell of a lot more difficult to come out of draconian measures/state of emergency than it was to adopt them. However, this is probably a good thing as it will, by constitutional necessity, have to be done gradually and with concensus.
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I feel that Spanish devolved government is now going to be an advantage and a disadvantage compared with the UK.

At the highest level we have central government. Then we have autonomous regions. Then within autonomous regions we have provinces. Within provinces we have municipalities. Within municipalities we have Junta Locals (parish councils).

The central government has declared that moving from phase 0 to phase 4 of de-escalation should take place at a provincial level. In my view this is very sensible as it is easy to police the boundaries of each province.

I feel like the governments of the autonomous regions do not like this approach. As they are used to wielding power over provinces in their region. I feel that the autonomous regions want to release lock down in their own ways at their own times. As they all have different priorities.

Now add in that central government is a minority coalition. Plus the autonomous regions are governed by various parties (or coalitions).

The twist is that the only way of being able to enforce a consistent lock down is to have a "state of alarm" declared nationally. I think that the approval for this has to be given in chunks of 2 weeks.

I feel that we are going to hit a problem at some point soon.

For my province, we are likely to be on the fast track to a phase 4 "new normal". Due to the lower (NOT LOW) levels of infections and deaths in our province so far. Compared with other provinces.

Other provinces and autonomous regions will probably have to be slower to reach the "new normal". As there will be bigger risks there.

In the best case I feel we might need at least 2 more extensions of the state of alarm. For our province to get to phase 4. God knows many more extensions will be required for some other parts of the country to get to phase 4.

A big question is when we will return to the autonomous regions wielding power over their provinces? Also, if they do not do it in a consistent way, how bad with the future waves of the virus be? We are bound to have some.

So to summarise, the structure of government here helps us as it is easy to split the country into clear chunks. The disadvantage is that central government has much less power compared with the UK. So it is more difficult to co-ordinate policy for the whole country.
 
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I agree with you. Its going to get harder and harder for the central government to keep control of it. One way or another the state of alarm needs to be in place until the end of June - that´s when they have said all being well the country will reach phase 4.

I hope it doesn´t all descend into chaos in a couple of weeks - just when things are looking up.
 
JaenBoro said:
I agree with you. Its going to get harder and harder for the central government to keep control of it. One way or another the state of alarm needs to be in place until the end of June - that´s when they have said all being well the country will reach phase 4.

I hope it doesn´t all descend into chaos in a couple of weeks - just when things are looking up.
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That is my worry.
 
JaenBoro said:
I agree with you. Its going to get harder and harder for the central government to keep control of it. One way or another the state of alarm needs to be in place until the end of June - that´s when they have said all being well the country will reach phase 4.

I hope it doesn´t all descend into chaos in a couple of weeks - just when things are looking up.
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I think central government will try and maintain control while Phases 1 to 3 come into force, so that they can see the effect - hence the request for the two week extension that was negotiated yesterday. They'll only devolve responsibility down after that if there isn't a significant rise in deaths.

Edir - for what it's worth, I'm quietly confident that things will progress OK
 
Malaguena said:
I think central government will try and maintain control while Phases 1 to 3 come into force, so that they can see the effect - hence the request for the two week extension that was negotiated yesterday. They'll only devolve responsibility down after that if there isn't a significant rise in deaths.

Edir - for what it's worth, I'm quietly confident that things will progress OK
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I have to admit I am a lot less confident than you. The issue for me is that we are likely to rush through the phases too quickly. Then have to revert back in some way.

With the only way of reverting back being to re-declare a state of alarm. Which will be politically very difficult once it has been removed.

I personally blame the autonomous regions more than any other part of government for where we have got to.

We have a national plan that has very little contingency in it. As anyone involved in managing big projects and programmes knows, things do not follow the plan for long. The combined levels of government in Spain have not managed the expectations of the people.
 
Here is what is happening at the bottom end of the hierarchy where I live...

Planning for the de-escalation in the El Ejido area including Almerimar

https://elejido.ideal.es/elejido/alcalde-ejido-coordina-20200505202158-nt.html

Google translation:

The mayor of El Ejido coordinates the phases of the de-escalation with the presidents of the Local Boards

In the next few days the local offices will be opened to serve the public and in early June it is planned to resume the plenary sessions of the Local Boards

The mayor of El Ejido, Francisco Góngora, met today with the presidents of the Local Boards to analyze the steps that will be followed and how the different phases of de-escalation will be addressed in the different population centers.

During the meeting, the mayor has transferred the forecast of the lifting of the limitations established in the State of Alarm in the seven nuclei and based on the four phases of transition to 'normality', analyzing each area of activity, from work , the one related to personnel, commerce, hospitality, cultural and leisure events, sports or mobility, among others.

In this line, the municipal chief responsible stated that «all the necessary measures and instruments are going to be adopted for the adaptation of the whole of the Administration and the population to de-escalation, with the maximum guarantees of security, after the crisis caused by the Covid-19 ».

Likewise, the first mayor has shared with the presidents the need to continue to be "very responsible in this new stage in phases in order to recover economic and social activity in an orderly and safe manner, without putting the health of the people of Ejido at risk."

Among the measures established is the opening of local offices in the coming days to serve the public, once the protection measures that guarantee the safety of both workers and citizens are adopted.

Similarly, for the beginning of June the plenary session of each of the Boards will resume.

Cultural activities

On the other hand and regarding the cultural field, due to the proximity of the summer season, the municipal government team and the presidents of the Local Boards have agreed to individually study the possible activities that may be carried out in summer, always with the premise of not holding any massive event and of scrupulously respecting the social distancing marked by the health authorities.

In this sense, it should be remembered that most of the patron saint festivities of the different urban centers are held in summer, in addition to the extensive program of activities that take place during the months of July and August in centers such as Almerimar, Balerma or San Agustín , with markets, sports tournaments or concerts such as the already postponed Plastic Festival now scheduled for July at the Almerimar rugby field.

Along these lines, and despite the fact that no decision has yet been officially communicated in this regard, the Local Boards are already working on the stage of suspending all party celebrations this year, for the safety of citizens.
 
spanishman said:
I have to admit I am a lot less confident than you. The issue for me is that we are likely to rush through the phases too quickly. Then have to revert back in some way.

With the only way of reverting back being to re-declare a state of alarm. Which will be politically very difficult once it has been removed.

I personally blame the autonomous regions more than any other part of government for where we have got to.

We have a national plan that has very little contingency in it. As anyone involved in managing big projects and programmes knows, things do not follow the plan for long. The combined levels of government in Spain have not managed the expectations of the people.
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“ As anyone involved in managing big projects and programmes knows, things do not follow the plan for long”

They do when I’m the PM ;)
 
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:

Data Wednesday May 6

Mixed data today because the death toll rises but the number of new infections remains stable. The daily and accumulated deaths show the seriousness of the tragedy and the need for the extraordinary containment measures that have been taken. The daily positive cases indicate the situation and trend of final control (or not) of the first wave of the epidemic in Spain. Therefore, the indicators linked to cases of daily contagion are those that acquire strategic importance to assess whether the epidemic is controlled and whether, therefore, it is possible to proceed towards the normalization of mobility with sufficient guarantees.

In this sense, the numbers of infected people today, 685 (-182) reconfirm the path of deactivation of infections, with four consecutive days already below 1,000 new cases. There is therefore no rebound or loss of control of the situation in sight. The multiplication rate remains at 1.02.

Increase the number of deceased, today to 244 by 185 yesterday. It again exceeds the barrier of the 200 deceased after three consecutive days below it. As we discussed, the evolution of the deceased is not a reflection of the current situation of the epidemic, but the unfortunate result of the situation of the epidemic 10-15 days ago, when there were between 3,000 and 4,500 cases a day. The multiplication rate remains at 1.03.
 
2 deaths in Jaén today after 0 in the 4 days previous. Hopefully we´ll be OK for going to phase 1 on Monday.

Its not so easy to find the figures for the province - we must be the most low profile in the whole of Spain - do Spaniards even know where Jaén is???
 
spanishman said:
Good or bad news for Jaen and Málaga?

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020...e-their-high-levels-of-new-coronavirus-cases/
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2 deaths in Malaga province today as well, and a sharp rise in cases identified but as the article says, could be for a couple of reaasons

Obviously not "good" news, but referring to your previous post about central v regional v local government, Malaga will definitely be putting pressure on to open up, of that there is absolutely no doubt
 
JaenBoro said:
2 deaths in Jaén today after 0 in the 4 days previous. Hopefully we´ll be OK for going to phase 1 on Monday.

Its not so easy to find the figures for the province - we must be the most low profile in the whole of Spain - do Spaniards even know where Jaén is???
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AndaluciaCoronavirusCases6May2020.jpg
I know of it as I see this sort of thing regularly.
 
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:

Data Thursday May 7

I have finally been able to put the data I have into an open access spreadsheet on Google Drive. There are the data on coronavirus cases (total, daily, multiplication rate, percentage of the total in Europe) and deaths with coronavirus (total, daily, multiplication rate, percentage on the total in Europe) for Spain and all European countries with more than 100 deaths, as well as aggregated data for Europe. I hope it can be useful for those of you who work on data. Access here.

I show the results of the multiplication rate of deceased, with data from May 3.

PictureA7May2020.jpg

Returning to the situation and trend in Spain, today's data confirm the dynamics that it showed yesterday regarding the weekly evolution of cases and deaths, which follow a pattern with almost systematic regularity. The figures fall abruptly in the data reported on Saturday and Sunday (corresponding to the accounting for Friday and Saturday), and then rose sharply on Tuesday, and continue with a slight decline until Friday.

PictureB7May2020.jpg
n some way, the data for the week is already known with what has come out on Saturday and Sunday, and the new trend will not be known until next Saturday. This is what we have this week: today, data similar to yesterday and the day before yesterday, and worse than those already obtained on Sunday.

754 cases today, by 685 yesterday and 867 Tuesday. It remains in the area below 1,000 daily infections. A very significant percentage of these infections correspond to health personnel. Regarding his situation, he manifests the great improvement field for the protection of personnel for the next outbreaks of the epidemic. But with regard to the epidemic situation, it is now a good sign because the vast majority of cases of toilets with positive identification do not correspond to recent contagion, but to the fact that they had not had the opportunity to have a test until now (another gigantic field for improvement in the new phases of epidemic management). It is a good sign because it means that the current contagion action of the coronavirus is even less than the number of registered infections (in terms of its trend, not in terms of actual cases). As the rate of descent of cases is not maintained day by day, today there is a decline in the multiplication rate, even a minuscule one. It goes from 1,017 to 1,018. The last time the multiplication rate rebounded was April 25.

213 deceased today (-31). It remains in the range that allows us to affirm that we are below the situation of last week. This week 160-250, last week 270-330. There is also a slight rebound in the multiplication rate, from 1,030 yesterday to 1,032 today.
 
I've just looked at the Barceloneta webcams and suddenly there are hundreds of people out playing games, running, cycling. Enjoying the beach. It looks pretty much like a normal spring day now.
 
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:

Data Friday May 8

New trend confirmation day from previous days. Stability of results in cases and daily deaths, and we are already waiting for the new trend that marks the results that are published on Saturday and Sunday, because from what we are seeing, they will become the guideline for the rest of the week .

1,095 cases (+341), still in the range of the last days, although it is above 1,000 for the first time in 6 days. The rate therefore takes a further step backwards, as it goes from 1,018 to 1,022.

We commented that the strategic variable for the new exit phase of the first wave of the epidemic is the evolution of cases. At the same time, for the practical phase of reactivation of mobility, the geographical disaggregation of the data takes center stage, because the de-escalation will be done according to the local situation. I therefore add data on the cases by autonomous community. I present the data as a percentage of the total figure. Many analysts prefer to display the population-corrected data, and display the cases per 100,000 population. Although the intensity of infections by inhabitant number is undoubtedly relevant information, which helps to put the data in perspective, I consider that what is relevant to see the evolution of the epidemic and the possibility of outbreaks is the total number of cases (or their equivalent in percentage of the total) because the importance of local sprouts will be determined much more by the number of cases than what this implies with respect to the total population. Specialists like John Burn-Murdoch of the Financial Times show that the spread of the epidemic within a country is very little linked to the country's total population. Thus, for my part I do not give up taking into account the population but as a complement, and I focus on the total cases.

Of the 1,095 new cases in the last 24 hours, 71.4% are concentrated in Catalonia, Madrid and Castilla y León. Catalonia concentrates practically 50% of all cases. The 9 communities with the fewest cases all add up to 9.1% of the total cases, which is 123 cases.
PictureA8May2020.jpg
229 deaths (+16), third day above 200. The multiplication rate also rises, from 1,032 to 1,034. 26,299 deaths in total. If you look at the underlying trend, using the moving average of the last 7 days it can be seen that it continues with the same rate of decline towards the end of the health crisis.

PictureB8May2020.jpg
 
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