Benidorm Curfew/Spanish Lockdown.

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Friday May 22

The data confirm a downward trend and final control of the first wave of the epidemic. Terrific day regarding the integration of data from the autonomous communities.

Yesterday I could not show multiplication rates and graphs since the global photograph was left hanging because the data received from Catalonia was blocked in the Ministry of Health, which was subjected to reexamination. Today they announce that we are in the same situation. Fernando Simón has been very hard regarding the problems they have identified as inconsistent in the information transmitted, which leads them to not yet validate the data.

One of the consequences of this situation of reevaluation of figures: today there have been recognized 688 deaths from coronaviruses of past dates that had not been correctly reported in their day. The total death toll thus jumps to 28,628.

The recorded number of deceased for the last 24 hours is 56. We cannot compare it with yesterday's figures, because they did not include those who died in Catalonia, who still do not give them. But as for the underlying trend, very good figures since they clearly move us away from the hundred figure. Tomorrow we enter a new weekly cycle of descent, so now it is likely that we will not see that figure of one hundred deaths per day. The multiplication rate stands at 1.010 (we calculate the rate with respect to the numbers of new daily deaths).

There are 446 new infections, although the total number of infections is increased by 1,787, due to the same adjustment mentioned with the data for Catalonia. Fernando Simón insists again that of these 446 cases only a minority (less than 40) correspond to current activation of the disease. More than 60% correspond to symptoms developed more than a week ago. It is a bad thing that they have been spreading, but regarding the evolution of the epidemic it indicates that the current foci are very limited. The rate rebounds to 1.007.

Like last Friday, we showed the data of cases by communities not with the cases declared in the last 4 days, but in the last 7 days. We are forced not to show the distribution map in percentage due to the problem with the data for Catalonia.

We show case data for every 100,000 inhabitants this week, last week and the difference between the two, without the Catalan data.

CoronavirusImage22May2020.jpg
 
Spanishman & Malaguena

Leon/Castile region seems badly hit which is strange for a predominately rural region with not a lot of outsiders? - I know from my Spanish Civil War studies that this region was a heartland of Franco's support and the Roman Catholic Church was very strong. Is church going still strong there and have people being attending church services through the virus?
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Spanishman & Malaguena

Leon/Castile region seems badly hit which is strange for a predominately rural region with not a lot of outsiders? - I know from my Spanish Civil War studies that this region was a heartland of Franco's support and the Roman Catholic Church was very strong. Is church going still strong there and have people being attending church services through the virus?
I got this from a google search. As I am a very very very lapsed catholic.

It is from the article here on the Catalan News site: https://www.catalannews.com/society...-museums-how-will-the-lockdown-exit-plan-work
It mentions phase 0.5 which is something they set up late on to get some regions doing something. My guess that this applies to phase 1 for other regions...

"Can I pray in a religious building or mourn?

From Phase 0.5, religious buildings will be able to open at one third of their capacity, with face masks recommended and the use of communal holy water fonts in churches prohibited. Outdoor mourning is allowed with a maximum of 15 people, and indoors with a maximum of 10 people."

So it sounds like they open in phase 0.5 / 1

I have no idea why that Leon/Castile has been hit badly.
 
The other explanation could be professional people escaping densely populated Madrid into the countryside to see elderly relatives in Leon/Castile with the grand children and spreading it.

Spain will be devastated if the tourist season is lost - in many regions it is the biggest part of the economy.
 

Malaguena

Well-known member
Spanishman & Malaguena

Leon/Castile region seems badly hit which is strange for a predominately rural region with not a lot of outsiders? - I know from my Spanish Civil War studies that this region was a heartland of Franco's support and the Roman Catholic Church was very strong. Is church going still strong there and have people being attending church services through the virus?
Can't comment about Castile and Leon specifically (or indeed Catholicism !) but down here quite a lot of the older generation still remember Franco "fondly", shall we say - much less so the younger generation. Ditto the Church - much more an older generation thing, though Dona Malaguena is an English teaching assistant at a college run by the Carmelite Nuns here in Malaga and they have plenty of pupils ! .... and they were very quick to close the school, well before it was imposed on them by the Junta de Andalucia.

The other explanation could be professional people escaping densely populated Madrid into the countryside to see elderly relatives in Leon/Castile with the grand children
This could be true - certainly after the lockdown was announced, we were inundated with people from Madrid coming down here to their second homes, even when they were told not to - to the point where the Guardia Civil had roadblocks set up on the main motorways into the region and were turning them round. I guess the point is, there are many rich Madrileno who are very much like Cummings - they think rules for normal people don't apply to them

Spain will be devastated if the tourist season is lost - in many regions it is the biggest part of the economy.
Certainly true - here we rely almost totally on tourism. The equivalent of the Chamber of Commerce have been applying pressure to release the lockdown and incomng quarantine rules in time for a season starting in June/July, and I can see why. Contrary to popular belief also, it's not just Brits that come here - many, many nationalities now
 
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Malaguena

Well-known member

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Saturday May 23

The area of cases and deaths of the last days is maintained. The descent to the next level has not yet taken place. It will probably arrive in the next few days: a number of cases between 150 and 250 daily.

48 deceased today, a minimum figure since the start of the decline in early April. The figure from two days ago is not comparable because the data for Catalonia were missing. It is already a consecutive week with figures below one hundred. Everything indicates that we will not return to that number. The multiplication rate remains at 1.010.

Today I make a stop in the trend in new hospital admissions. It's been almost a month since this important series was recovered. Like the rest of the series, there are constant problems of inconsistencies between the variation of total data and the numbers of daily hospitalizations. But at least in broad lines, the numbers can be reliable.

They are figures of new hospitalizations in the last 7 days. There are 1,246 in the last week. They are really very high figures, especially when compared to the number of new cases. This is due to the existence of tens of thousands of cases still active. Earnings have been cut in half compared to the previous week, and are 3.5 times less than two weeks ago.

CoronavirusImage23May2020.jpg
Regarding ICU admissions in the last seven days, it amounts to 147. It decreases compared to 209 in the previous week.

361 new cases reported. It is appreciated that for the first time in the CCAES Daily Update the cases of the anomaly in the way of reporting in Madrid and Catalonia are indicated. Thus, it indicates that Madrid reports 68 newly diagnosed cases and 185 in total. Catalonia, 92 and 151. If the total data is shown as it is done today, it is to be expected that these communities will gradually use this own accounting system (although it continues to surprise that the Ministry of Health is still unable to impose a single criterion. I am surprised.

Today's case number, 361, perfectly maintains the trend of relative case control, with 7 consecutive days below 500. The rate remains at 1.007.
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Sunday May 24

The death toll moves in the already conquered band, although it rises with respect to previous days. Today there are 70 deceased, by 48 yesterday. The multiplication rate is reduced to 1.009.

The number of daily cases drops to 246, already in the range that we hoped to reach yesterday yesterday. However, the double counting of Madrid and Catalonia make it question more and more that the situation is as controlled as it seemed in these two communities with the data that the Ministry of Health published until two days ago.

The Ministry gave as new cases in Madrid those that Madrid indicated as cases of activation or ultimate registration, but those that for different reasons did not correspond to that criterion were added to the total but not in the list of cases for the day. If it was an adjustment operation, it could be avoided. But if it is a systematic practice, it is a system of underestimation of reality, because the cases that Madrid really has every day are never given visibility.

The problem would be less if the difference between the two figures were not very relevant. But the publication of the two figures by Health for two days reveals that the discrepancies are enormous. In the last two days Madrid has declared 94 new cases, but the sum of the cases reported by Madrid in these two days is 446. It seems that something similar happens in Catalonia, and Health cannot yet validate the data.

It is such a large discrepancy that on the one hand it suggests that Madrid does not have the epidemic as controlled as it showed. And secondly, due to the importance of Madrid in the surrounding communities, it raises doubts about the control and end of the epidemic at the national level.
 
I can see his logic, because he's under severe pressure to open up borders for the holiday season starting on the 1st July - he's already announced the ending of the 14 day quarantine for arrivals on that date - and for that to happen, he's got to be able to show infection and death rates aren't rising

I wouldn't like to say whether he'll manage the extension he's after because Vox are now starting to make it a political game
 
The likes of Vox are starting to really annoy me. What do they actually want? What would they do different? I know there were a couple of mistakes at the start (allowing the womens day parades for example) but apart from that its difficult to disagree with what the government of Spain has done in response to this crisis. What a contrast to the UK!!!
 
The likes of Vox are starting to really annoy me. What do they actually want? What would they do different? I know there were a couple of mistakes at the start (allowing the womens day parades for example) but apart from that its difficult to disagree with what the government of Spain has done in response to this crisis. What a contrast to the UK!!!
I think Vox are playing the disruptive, anti-establishment, populist game - aimed at the predominantly right wing (racist ?) older generation and the younger disenfranchised voters. What they actually "want" I have no idea ! They don't appear to be a one-issue party like Farage and his Brexit chums, but they're coming from that general position
 
I think Vox are playing the disruptive, anti-establishment, populist game - aimed at the predominantly right wing (racist ?) older generation and the younger disenfranchised voters. What they actually "want" I have no idea ! They don't appear to be a one-issue party like Farage and his Brexit chums, but they're coming from that general position
Edit - agree with your comment about the Spanish government handling of the crisis - might have been painful but it worked. The next few weeks are going to be critical though
 
They were slow to react at the start. Allowing footy matches etc. Since then I feel they have done a good job apart from one very big recent mistake.

They did not manage the expectations of the people (plus other parties and regional governments) when they published their lock down timetable. The way they did it was stupid. An optimistic time frame with no caveats or contingency. Now that is coming back to bite them in the bum.
 
They were slow to react at the start. Allowing footy matches etc. Since then I feel they have done a good job apart from one very big recent mistake.

They did not manage the expectations of the people (plus other parties and regional governments) when they published their lock down timetable. The way they did it was stupid. An optimistic time frame with no caveats or contingency. Now that is coming back to bite them in the bum.
I thought he said that each stage would be 2 weeks minimum depending on the situation. Maybe it wasn´t clear enough. and I suppose it was always going to be an issue of some provinces moving faster than others.

By the way, here in Jaén it feels really strange. Apart from the masks - which pretty much everyone is wearing - we are back to normal. In fact, the streets seem even busier than normal. I just hope work gets back to normal soon. We are still working only 2 days per week. I don´t know how long that will go on before they make some permanent changes.
 
I thought he said that each stage would be 2 weeks minimum depending on the situation. Maybe it wasn´t clear enough. and I suppose it was always going to be an issue of some provinces moving faster than others.

By the way, here in Jaén it feels really strange. Apart from the masks - which pretty much everyone is wearing - we are back to normal. In fact, the streets seem even busier than normal. I just hope work gets back to normal soon. We are still working only 2 days per week. I don´t know how long that will go on before they make some permanent changes.
They didn´t say that. It was just implied as there was an optimistic timetable for the country as a whole. When it was clear that the country would not move between phases as a whole at the same time.

Then they did say 2 weeks a phase.

Then they are perhaps changing again with Málaga and Granada. Who knows.

They were just too optimistic with the timetable. So various parts of the country that were more heavily hit are trying to catch up. For me, this is dangerous. As it risks having a worse second wave of infections.
 
They didn´t say that. It was just implied as there was an optimistic timetable for the country as a whole. When it was clear that the country would not move between phases as a whole at the same time.

Then they did say 2 weeks a phase.

Then they are perhaps changing again with Málaga and Granada. Who knows.

They were just too optimistic with the timetable. So various parts of the country that were more heavily hit are trying to catch up. For me, this is dangerous. As it risks having a worse second wave of infections.
No, they did say that at the start - I've got a timetable released by the government that was printed in Sur stuck on our fridge from when the lockdown release plan was first announced, which shows the phases, the dates of those phases, and what was likely to open / be allowed in each. The article did also say that it was dependent on rates not going back up as the phases were progressed.

I agree they didn't say different areas of the country may move at different speeds though
 
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