The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

GazC_MFC said:
what we really want to know is, how’s the laptop

hope you had a good break
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Cheers Gaz.

I've managed to get the laptop limping along again, although it's painfully slow. Problem with the RAM, I think, so I might have to invest in some new memory (or upgrade the whole thing).

Main thing is that I've managed to recover all of the data which I'd, stupidly, forgotten to back up for ages. Lesson learnt for the future.
 
Over the months and the changes to accounting from the ONS, I am really struggling to follow where we are at the minute. It seems there has been a real tail off in deaths, but I assume the drop is to do with the reduction in days from test to death.

The second thing I am struggling to follow is the rise in cases versus the number of tests being done. Do we know now how many people are actually being tested daily?
 
This is why I no longer pay attention mich to the daily statistics now. They wash over me because there is never a consistency that allows meaningful comparison and trend analysis.
 
The ONS weekly data is out super late today will update once I receive it..

In response to your query @Laughing hospital admissions still way down, ONS says cases have leveled off and deaths in single digits most of the time.

The whole thing has become a political mess where the left think it's Armageddon and the right think it's a total scam. The economy is likely never to recover and winter is going to be beyond absolutely horrific... Worst of all my e class has a rattle sounds like metal scraping near the exhaust pipe.
 
Alvez_48 said:
The ONS weekly data is out super late today will update once I receive it..

In response to your query @Laughing hospital admissions still way down, ONS says cases have leveled off and deaths in single digits most of the time.

The whole thing has become a political mess where the left think it's Armageddon and the right think it's a total scam. The economy is likely never to recover and winter is going to be beyond absolutely horrific... Worst of all my e class has a rattle sounds like metal scraping near the exhaust pipe.
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If you're worried about the economy now, just wait until the effects of brexit kick in.
 
Laughing said:
It seems there has been a real tail off in deaths, but I assume the drop is to do with the reduction in days from test to death.
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Yes.

Laughing said:
The second thing I am struggling to follow is the rise in cases versus the number of tests being done. Do we know now how many people are actually being tested daily?
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Average daily figure over the last three weeks is 172k.
Average positives over same period have been 925.

The three weeks pre-lockdown on average 3,355 people were tested a day with 315 positives, but that started from a low base of 11 positives before reaching 1000 and within 3 further weeks there were 8.5k positives off 19k tests in a single day.

170k tests & 1k (+/- 200) positives for such a long period shows it is still spreading, just not like wild fire.
 
SmallTown said:
How are you arriving at that figure?
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Well we've had the worst economic figures in history during a time that the government has paid 80% of over 6,500,000 people's salaries whilst a further 700,000 were made redundant just from march to July.

So whilst 10x is a guess, its a fair assumption given that the worst predictions were around a 2.1% drop in gdp over 2 years as a result of no deal brexit (I'm allowing for a drop of 4% which would be similar to 2008).

Do you believe brexit would have a bigger impact than covid/lockdowns etc?
 
Alvez_48 said:
Well we've had the worst economic figures in history during a time that the government has paid 80% of over 6,500,000 people's salaries whilst a further 700,000 were made redundant just from march to July.

So whilst 10x is a guess, its a fair assumption given that the worst predictions were around a 2.1% drop in gdp over 2 years as a result of no deal brexit (I'm allowing for a drop of 4% which would be similar to 2008).

Do you believe brexit would have a bigger impact than covid/lockdowns etc?
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I think it'll compound the issue. I think there's an insanity to it that is just being ignored. Economic sanctions are imposed on countries as a punishment, look at how poor the economies of places like Cuba and North Korea are, probably to of the heaviest sanctioned places (ok maybe not for Cuba but US sanction, given the size of the US and it's proximity have hit it hard. I just think it's pure insanity to punish ourselves by giving ourselves economic sanctions.
 
SmallTown said:
I think it'll compound the issue. I think there's an insanity to it that is just being ignored. Economic sanctions are imposed on countries as a punishment, look at how poor the economies of places like Cuba and North Korea are, probably to of the heaviest sanctioned places (ok maybe not for Cuba but US sanction, given the size of the US and it's proximity have hit it hard. I just think it's pure insanity to punish ourselves by giving ourselves economic sanctions.
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I've never been a fan of brexit either and it will cause more pain and suffering.

Sanctions are different though.. sanctions are effectively siege warfare in modern times. 😉
 
Alvez_48 said:
I've never been a fan of brexit either and it will cause more pain and suffering.

Sanctions are different though.. sanctions are effectively siege warfare in modern times. 😉
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With a no deals brexit that’s effectively what we are doing though. Imposing sanctions on ourselves by removing trade deals
 
SmallTown said:
With a no deals brexit that’s effectively what we are doing though. Imposing sanctions on ourselves by removing trade deals
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No sir, sanctions completely stop the ability of the sanctioned nation to bring in the products (medicines / food etc) required.

We just have to pay tariffs that will further erode the buying power of the £ but will still have access to the goods and services to import.
 
Alvez_48 said:
No sir, sanctions completely stop the ability of the sanctioned nation to bring in the products (medicines / food etc) required.

We just have to pay tariffs that will further erode the buying power of the £ but will still have access to the goods and services to import.
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I know what sanctions means.
 
newusername said:
Yes.


Average daily figure over the last three weeks is 172k.
Average positives over same period have been 925.

The three weeks pre-lockdown on average 3,355 people were tested a day with 315 positives, but that started from a low base of 11 positives before reaching 1000 and within 3 further weeks there were 8.5k positives off 19k tests in a single day.

170k tests & 1k (+/- 200) positives for such a long period shows it is still spreading, just not like wild fire.
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Thanks for that, is that an accurate number of people tested, or tests though? There has been a fudging of the test data for so long now, it's difficult to believe anything.
 
Laughing said:
is that an accurate number of people tested, or tests though? There has been a fudging of the test data for so long now, it's difficult to believe anything.
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Agreed. The changing methodolgy and recounts don't give you any faith in the latest facts.

172k tests are processed tests,rather than tests made available which was the metric for 200,000 tests a day.

DHSC say:
"‘All tests processed’ counts tests that have remained within the control of the programme (and were counted at the time of when it was processed in labs) and those that have been sent out and subsequently returned to be processed in a lab. This is a useful measure as it shows how many tests we have received results for. The publication of this measure is also in line with the UK Statistics Authority recommendations."
 
Thanks for that Newusername. Seems they are at least only counting performed tests now, not kits that were posted out
 
newusername said:
Agreed. The changing methodolgy and recounts don't give you any faith in the latest facts.

172k tests are processed tests,rather than tests made available which was the metric for 200,000 tests a day.

DHSC say:
"‘All tests processed’ counts tests that have remained within the control of the programme (and were counted at the time of when it was processed in labs) and those that have been sent out and subsequently returned to be processed in a lab. This is a useful measure as it shows how many tests we have received results for. The publication of this measure is also in line with the UK Statistics Authority recommendations."
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Laughing said:
Thanks for that Newusername. Seems they are at least only counting performed tests now, not kits that were posted out
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Unfortunately, however, the PHE/NHSX coronovirus data website also includes the following health warning about the tests processed data:

"Number of lab-confirmed positive or negative COVID-19 test results, by pillar (type of testing), by date reported. This is a count of test results and may include multiple tests for an individual person."

Hence, we know the number of tests performed each day but still have no idea how many people were tested. This is why we must treat assurances that the positive test rate hasn't been rising, including those issued by the fabled Carl Heneghan, with extreme caution.
 
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