The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

[Alvez_48]

Before covid hit the mortality rate was tracking below the 5 year average in the first 10/11 weeks of the year

There had been 8000 excess deaths from October to December and the 5 year average itself (confusing I know) had been trending upwards since around 2012.

 

[bear66]

As of 9am on 21 July, 295,817 people have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK (pillar 1 and 2, see descriptions below).


Positive cases (pillars 1 and 2) were 445 with 109 Pillar 1.

110 deaths recorded today.

 

[Billy Horner]

Today's headline analysis:

• 445 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 580
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.1% to 635 per day, following 1.1% increase yesterday (and 8th increase in the past 11 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 6.3% higher than one week ago (from 0.8% higher yesterday) and 10.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 6.5% higher yesterday and 31.1% lower 7 days ago)
• 110 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, up from 11 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 5.8% to 65 per day, following 0.0% change yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 21.5% lower than one week ago (from 19.0% lower yesterday) and 31.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 27.3% lower yesterday and 28.1% lower 7 days ago)

 

[Laughing]

Thanks fella's. That seems like quite a big figure for deaths after lots of much lower numbers over the last week or so.

 

[bear66]

Thanks fella's. That seems like quite a big figure for deaths after lots of much lower numbers over the last week or so.

As Billy says, the 7 day average is falling. Also, there is some doubt over figures. The last ONS figures had two thirds of deaths in hospitals over the week up to 10 July. Seeing how far below that we currently are may indicate the level of over estimating.

 

[Laughing]

There is that Bear, it's a bit of logistical **** up at a time when we really need to know how the disease is behaving so we can best prepare for any second wave.

I just read the front page of the Sun in the supermarket and the headline was "Vaccine by Christmas". The press really don't help.

 

[bear66]

There is that Bear, it's a bit of logistical **** up at a time when we really need to know how the disease is behaving so we can best prepare for any second wave.

I just read the front page of the Sun in the supermarket and the headline was "Vaccine by Christmas". The press really don't help.

There have been less than 100 hospital deaths in the last seven days but approximately 450 deaths overall.

 

[Laughing]

There is something fishy afoot.

 

[Billy Horner]

There have been less than 100 hospital deaths in the last seven days but approximately 450 deaths overall.

There is something fishy afoot.

Whilst it sounds like some sort of review of the PHE methodology is clearly warranted, as it's nonsensical to have the current open-ended system, I would be extremely surprised if there's been a significant over-counting of deaths. We've had fewer than 300,000 confirmed cases, two-thirds of which have tested positive in the last three months.

The likelihood that very many of those will have tested positive, recovered and then died from something else in that timescale is relatively small. I'm sure there will have been some over-counting due to such circumstances, but I'm pretty confident it will have been more than compensated by the under-counting that undoubtedly took place at the beginning when we weren't testing enough people.

 

[Alvez_48]

Whilst it sounds like some sort of review of the PHE methodology is clearly warranted, as it's nonsensical to have the current open-ended system, I would be extremely surprised if there's been a significant over-counting of deaths. We've had fewer than 300,000 confirmed cases, two-thirds of which have tested positive in the last three months.

The likelihood that very many of those will have tested positive, recovered and then died from something else in that timescale is relatively small. I'm sure there will have been some over-counting due to such circumstances, but I'm pretty confident it will have been more than compensated by the under-counting that undoubtedly took place at the beginning when we weren't testing enough people.

See that's the problem... You acknowledge counting mistakes within the PHE but don't think there could be clinical mistakes despite care home owners having the ability to mark a death as covid with no health training.

 

[bear66]

Whilst it sounds like some sort of review of the PHE methodology is clearly warranted, as it's nonsensical to have the current open-ended system, I would be extremely surprised if there's been a significant over-counting of deaths. We've had fewer than 300,000 confirmed cases, two-thirds of which have tested positive in the last three months.

The likelihood that very many of those will have tested positive, recovered and then died from something else in that timescale is relatively small. I'm sure there will have been some over-counting due to such circumstances, but I'm pretty confident it will have been more than compensated by the under-counting that undoubtedly took place at the beginning when we weren't testing enough people.

A graphic of ONS versus PHE

 

[Billy Horner]

See that's the problem... You acknowledge counting mistakes within the PHE but don't think there could be clinical mistakes despite care home owners having the ability to mark a death as covid with no health training.

The PHE system is built on a system of positive tests. Care home owners don't play any role in reporting those.

Neither do they sign the death certificates which are used in the ONS system. It's qualified doctors who do that.

Just out of interest, who are the care home owners supposedly 'marking' these deaths to?

 

[Billy Horner]

A graphic of ONS versus PHE

View attachment 4957

If you look at the big blank areas beneath the red line (mostly at weekends), you'll note that until the last few weeks the PHE system has been significantly under-reporting when compared with the ONS system. My point is that, with the numbers being much lower in the past few weeks, this recent over-reporting will have been more than compensated by the earlier under-reporting.

 

[bear66]

If you look at the big blank areas beneath the red line (mostly at weekends), you'll note that until the last few weeks the PHE system has been significantly under-reporting when compared with the ONS system. My point is that, with the numbers being much lower in the past few weeks, this recent over-reporting will have been more than compensated by the earlier under-reporting.

I agree with that and comments about "huge over estimates" are nonsense. Ultimately, eradicating the disease will become more focused on new positive tests.

 

[Randy]

See that's the problem... You acknowledge counting mistakes within the PHE but don't think there could be clinical mistakes despite care home owners having the ability to mark a death as covid with no health training.

I know personally that that has happened too.
Some may call me a liar but you can't call my wife a liar. She was there the night it happened.

 

[Billy Horner]

I know personally that that has happened too.
Some may call me a liar but you can't call my wife a liar. She was there the night it happened.

I'm not disputing that at all. Care homes report suspected Covid-related deaths to the Care Quality Commission for monitoring purposes.

There was talk a few months ago of using the CQC figures as a way of adding to the NHS deaths in hospitals figures, in order to get a more complete picture of what was happening at the time. In the end, however, Public Health England came up with a way of cross-checking positive test results with the various national deaths databases, meaning that the CQC figures (and therefore care home reporting) don't form any part of the official statistics.

 

[Randy]

I'm not disputing that at all. Care homes report suspected Covid-related deaths to the Care Quality Commission for monitoring purposes.

There was talk a few months ago of using the CQC figures as a way of adding to the NHS deaths in hospitals figures, in order to get a more complete picture of what was happening at the time. In the end, however, Public Health England came up with a way of cross-checking positive test results with the various national deaths databases, meaning that the CQC figures (and therefore care home reporting) don't form any part of the official statistics.

The lady in question was took to hospital after 6 weeks of isolation in her own self contained apartment. Had food and drinks left at the door and only ever left the apartment to sit outside on her balcony. Died on arrival at the hospital of heart failure.
Family kicked off at the care home because death certificate mentioned covid-19 as an underlying cause along with cardiac arrest. They wanted to know how she had caught it even with the isolation measures in place. Missus and colleagues had to give informal statements to the care company.
Last the wife heard the family were talking to solicitors about altering the death certificate although I don't know if that's allowed is it?

 

[bear66]

The lady in question was took to hospital after 6 weeks of isolation in her own self contained apartment. Had food and drinks left at the door and only ever left the apartment to sit outside on her balcony. Died on arrival at the hospital of heart failure.
Family kicked off at the care home because death certificate mentioned covid-19 as an underlying cause along with cardiac arrest. They wanted to know how she had caught it even with the isolation measures in place. Missus and colleagues had to give informal statements to the care company.
Last the wife heard the family were talking to solicitors about altering the death certificate although I don't know if that's allowed is it?

The death certificate is only issued after discussions with the registrar based on the medical certificate stating cause of death. If you disagree, then you need to sort it out prior to the registrar registering the death. It's difficult to change after the registration has taken place.

 

[Alvez_48]

The PHE system is built on a system of positive tests. Care home owners don't play any role in reporting those.

Neither do they sign the death certificates which are used in the ONS system. It's qualified doctors who do that.

Just out of interest, who are the care home owners supposedly 'marking' these deaths to?

Take a look at this graph... All other causes of death in June are way down. Have we just got way better at treating everything else (with severely reduced health care services)? Please note this is your ONS data not PHE.

 

[Randy]

The death certificate is only issued after discussions with the registrar based on the medical certificate stating cause of death. If you disagree, then you need to sort it out prior to the registrar registering the death. It's difficult to change after the registration has taken place.

Yeah thought as much there would be some little hoops to jump through.