Interesting post as always Andy, thanks.
I was having this conversation with my wife a few days ago and we estimated half a million cases per day. You are probably right though - mental figures indeed
Yeah, the reason I think it's a million is we were missing 2/3rds with Delta, in Summer. Omicron would probably knocked that up to missing 4/5, but then maybe knock that down to 3/4 due to people over-LFT'ing. I doubt half of those LFT's (which don't get a PCR) are being reported. Then couple that with lack of PCR's (in places that need it most, which changes) and with it being winter people will have more "colds", but of course, most of those "colds" will be Covid, but in denial. Loads will be testing with LFT's as household contacts and showing negative, but 30% of those can easily be false negatives, which is why they say to get a PCR with symptoms, not do a LFT etc.
220k yesterday, very easy to 4-5x that, giving the million. That's per day too, so over the course of a week and assuming infection lasts around a week that's maybe up to 10% of the UK population having it at the same time. We've certainly topped that rate in the North East, as I think about 1 in 8 that I know have had it over the last week, and that's not counting their household contacts.
Then to back work that, W/E 23rd December had 3.7% of England infected, and the line pointing up rapidly, we're nearly two weeks on from that so 10% for England or even higher looks likely, the rest of the UK maybe just under, for now. Obviously the week before crimbo, a lot of people were taking it very cautiously, so as to not risk wrecking Christmas. But Christmas, Boxing Day, NYE will have massively undone those self imposed restrictions.
I think 1st-now will have been relatively slow growth, as far as the R rate goes, as people often bunker down after the NYD hangover. But people goign back to work, school and pubs at the weekend will boost it back up in the places which have not been hit as hard as London, NW and Teesside etc.
