The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Thanks @Billy Horner

it really would be good to know how many admissions are “incidental” Covid, ie admitted for something else, but tested positive on entry, as per @Muttley’s comment above.

I suppose the real test is still to come. ICU Covid cases and death. If they don’t spike before infections start coming back down, we have a real chance to win this race.
 
Randy said:
Whilst s large death figure I think it averages out around 67 per day?
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Be careful with that, as it wasn't including the latest deaths, or any deaths after the 24th, so once those low days clear out, that average is going up, quite a lot, especially when that 332 from 30/12 is the start of the 7 day av, not the end of it.
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There's also a load of lag in the deaths, and also the hospitalisations lagging the cases. We're got some big problems coming, as we're tracking the highest probability model extremely well, except we're already in advance of it. This ~4k hospitalisations a day looks pretty nailed on now, just got to see how that materialises into deaths.

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Today's headline analysis:

• 189,846 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 189,213
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 7.2% to 144,658 per day, following 7.9% increase yesterday (and 30th daily increase in the past 31 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 43.9% higher than one week ago (from 40.1% higher yesterday) and 112.2% higher than two weeks ago (from 113.6% higher yesterday and 104.4% higher 7 days ago)
• 2,370 new admissions to English hospitals in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 2,082
• 7-day average for admissions to English hospitals increases by 11.2% to 1,590 per day, following 10.9% increase yesterday (and 27th daily increase in the past 28 days)
• 7-day average for admissions to English hospitals is 69.0% higher than one week ago (from 62.8% higher yesterday) and 106.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 87.5% higher yesterday and 31.9% higher 7 days ago)
• 12,395 Covid patients in English hospitals, up from yesterday's 11,452
• Number of Covid patients in English hospitals increases by 8.2%, following 9.5% increase yesterday (and 12th daily increase in the past 13 days)
• Number of Covid patients in English hospitals is 68.3% higher than one week ago (from 61.0% higher yesterday) and 96.1% higher than two weeks ago (from 78.8% higher yesterday and 21.0% higher 7 days ago)
• 203 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 332 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 9.4% to 109.6 per day, following 35.9% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 5.3% lower than one week ago (from 10.6% lower yesterday) and 3.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 12.6% lower yesterday and 2.5% lower 7 days ago)

Record reported new cases for the 10th time in the past 17 days (admittedly by only a few hundred cases this time).
 
I tested positive today some of you will be pleased to hear , 100% certain I caught it at Blackpool away , I wouldn't change a thing though , cracking day /night , :)
 
NorthumberlandBoro said:
Cases seem to be on the way down in some of the badly hit inner London boroughs.
Looking for some good news.
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My borough was the worst in Britain in the week before Christmas after a very rapid rise in the number of cases in the previous week. I monitor the figures daily and they peaked around 23 December and have been falling ever since. Obviously you need to take into account changes in behaviour over the holiday period, the unavailability of tests recently and reporting delays, but it does look as though they are on the way down here at least.
 
SmallTown said:
I think it'll be even sooner maybe next week or we may be at it
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We're not there yet, but it won't take long, London maybe near their peak, strongest growth is in the North East at the minute, loads I know have it (including myself).

The schools and workplaces re-opening will ensure it hits all the areas which have not had their peak, and will ensure they get to their peak extremely quickly.

Problem we have is it's moving around areas at different times, and each area is maxing out PCR testing capability when it happens, so the numbers are hard to believe/ trust as far as peaks go. We will only know the actual uk peak 1-2 weeks after it's happened when we start to see the ONS survey lines go down. That data is always week behind and we need a peak and then a week going down to confirm it.

Also, loads are using LFT as a test when they have symptoms (which is not what LFT's are for), and most are probably not reporting the LFT results. I myself felt crap so took an LFT and it was positive (I reported it) so didn't see any point in going for a PCR and taking a slot from someone else who might have been in doubt.
 
Andy_W said:
We're not there yet, but it won't take long, London maybe near their peak, strongest growth is in the North East at the minute, loads I know have it (including myself).

The schools and workplaces re-opening will ensure it hits all the areas which have not had their peak, and will ensure they get to their peak extremely quickly.

Problem we have is it's moving around areas at different times, and each area is maxing out PCR testing capability when it happens, so the numbers are hard to believe/ trust as far as peaks go. We will only know the actual uk peak 1-2 weeks after it's happened when we start to see the ONS survey lines go down. That data is always week behind and we need a peak and then a week going down to confirm it.

Also, loads are using LFT as a test when they have symptoms (which is not what LFT's are for), and most are probably not reporting the LFT results. I myself felt crap so took an LFT and it was positive (I reported it) so didn't see any point in going for a PCR and taking a slot from someone else who might have been in doubt.
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Hope you're not badly affected.
 
NorthumberlandBoro said:
Hope you're not badly affected.
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I'm alright, and getting better, but thanks for asking.

To be fair, had I went out on NYE I would have probably felt equal or worse yesterday and today, but that says more about my NYE drinking/ hangovers than Covid!

Just feels like flu to be honest (for me), which is the concerning thing, considering I had three jabs and my booster was about 2 weeks before catching it. Effectively I was as well protected as I could ever be, yet it still hit fairly hard and I'm "young" and pretty fit. Would not have fancied this had I not been vaccinated or boosted, as it would likely have been pretty bad.

Also makes me doubt if I've had it before, as I thought I had been exposed and been asymptomatic, but this was probably the worst I've been ill in a few years (not self inflicted), so leads me to think I must have avoided it previously somehow, which is surprising as I've been out and about more than most I expect.
 
Glad you’re on the mend Andy.

im watching this one closely, for any sign that the increased cases and hospitalisations (Covid or Covid/incidental) are having a direct impact on ventilator beds. This for me, is the measure to identify if our interventions (vaccine & treatments) and the severity of the dominant strain (Omicron) are directly affecting likelihood of death.

at the moment, it’s remaining pretty flat, but of course could turn soon. I hope not. I also recognise this doesn’t take into consideration the other harmful issues caused by such huge case numbers, but to me gives an indication as to whether our medical science is winning the race.

 
Borotommo said:
Glad you’re on the mend Andy.

im watching this one closely, for any sign that the increased cases and hospitalisations (Covid or Covid/incidental) are having a direct impact on ventilator beds. This for me, is the measure to identify if our interventions (vaccine & treatments) and the severity of the dominant strain (Omicron) are directly affecting likelihood of death.

at the moment, it’s remaining pretty flat, but of course could turn soon. I hope not. I also recognise this doesn’t take into consideration the other harmful issues caused by such huge case numbers, but to me gives an indication as to whether our medical science is winning the race.

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Cheers, much appreciated (y)

I was thinking the same about those on ventilators, but have changed thought on that. From speaking to some working in hospitals and from doing a bit of reading up, that's the lesser issue at the minute, it's the numbers in other beds which are the problem (most are being treated on wards, rather than ICU), but they're taking up beds/ staff at a time when those areas were already in massive demand. A&E, ambulances and staff are under extreme pressure/ loads.
There's some talk of many hospitals planning on people being prevented from even going into A&E unless it's life threatening, and think some areas are already doing this as they can't take the load, this is not good news for treating other potential issues.

Infections in those >60 are starting to climb rapidly (before they were low), so this is going to get worse (for all beds) before it gets better.

The only saving grace is the peak should be short for each area, but each area will struggle big time during their peak.
 
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Andy_W said:
Cheers, much appreciated (y)

I was thinking the same about those on ventilators, but have changed thought on that. From speaking to some working in hospitals and from doing a bit of reading up, that's the lesser issue at the minute, it's the numbers in other beds which are the problem (most are being treated on wards, rather than ICU), but they're taking up beds/ staff at a time when those areas were already in massive demand. A&E, ambulances and staff are under extreme pressure/ loads.
There's some talk of many hospitals planning on people being prevented from even going into A&E unless it's life threatening, and think some areas are already doing this as they can't take the load, this is not good news for treating other potential issues.

Infections in those >60 are starting to climb rapidly (before they were low), so this is going to get worse (for all beds) before it gets better.

The only saving grace is the peak should be short for each area, but each area will struggle big time during their peak.
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Yes, I agree it’s a lesser issue for the hospitals. I’m merely concentrating on it as a vital indicator. It’s going to be hell for NHS and associated staff in the next few weeks. Desperately hoping this might be Covids last hurrah
 
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