The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

I'd expect to see this as well. We've essentially got three variables, vaccine supply (in it's purest sense, stocks of the available vaccines), our ability to deliver (the roll out) and people's willingness to be vaccinated.

The third is the least controllable, the first appears to be OK and the second seems to fluctuate.

Would be interested to understand the government's actual target for % of population vaccinated, assuming 100% is clearly unachievable.
 
bear66 said:
When cases were at this level las October, there were 43 deaths per day over 7 days; they're currently 17 deaths a day so significantly less, but not 'zero'.
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To get the whole picture I guess you would need to know how many deaths in the full vaccinated and part vaccinated.
 
bear66 said:
When cases were at this level las October, there were 43 deaths per day over 7 days; they're currently 17 deaths a day so significantly less, but not 'zero'.
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Out of 67+ million bear remember.

They ain't ever going to reach zero for any sort of length of time for years and years yet are they?
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 22,868 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 14,486
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 11.8% to 16,557 per day, following 5.3% increase yesterday (and 40th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 69.3% higher than one week ago (from 58.1% higher yesterday) and 122.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 107.3% higher yesterday and 91.2% higher 7 days ago)
• 3 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 11 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 1.6% to 17.4 per day, following 4.2% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 64.9% higher than one week ago (from 72.2% higher yesterday) and 84.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 93.8% higher yesterday and 25.4% higher 7 days ago)

First day with more than 20,000 reported cases since 31st January.
 
Crazy what is happening in Scotland, who have eclipsed all othe case peaks, the increase has been absolutely mental, so quick that it's hard to pin down a number for R, but it's more than 2 :(
England is speeding up too, might be difficult to avoid 50k cases by July 19th now, which would be the same as the January peak (albeit very different ages, and very different risk profiles)
Log scales remember...
1624961642212.png1624961836306.png

I don't think this is all Delta, I think some of it is that most seem to have given up in private settings, but it's difficult to criticise this, especially with vaccines doing so well, and the majority of the case spread being in those so young, with least risk.

Even if we hit our 50k January case peak av, that the modellers had in, it doesn't look like hopsitalisations will be anywhere near previous peaks.

Might be worth keeping an eye on Scotland and how their cases turn into hospitalisations, as they're seemingly ahead of England now.

It's mad watching this level and speed of increase (even though it was forcasted), but not having the same concern as before, totally different game this wave.
 
As of 9am on 29 June, 4,775,301 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 20,479 (11,625 on corresponding day last week).

23 deaths were reported today (27 on corresponding day last week).

152,606 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 18 June).

44,581,771 have had a first dose vaccination. 127,260 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 32,721,762 have had a second dose. 138,016 second dose vaccinations today.
 
bear66 said:
As of 9am on 29 June, 4,775,301 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 20,479 (11,625 on corresponding day last week).

23 deaths were reported today (27 on corresponding day last week).

152,606 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 18 June).

44,581,771 have had a first dose vaccination. 127,260 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 32,721,762 have had a second dose. 138,016 second dose vaccinations today.
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I know vaccines, and I know young uns but I can’t help but worry about the rise in cases
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 20,479 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 22,868
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 7.6% to 17,822 per day, following 11.8% increase yesterday (and 41st consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 72.3% higher than one week ago (from 69.3% higher yesterday) and 132.3% higher than two weeks ago (from 122.6% higher yesterday and 87.2% higher 7 days ago)
• 23 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 3 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 3.3% to 16.9 per day, following 1.6% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 29.7% higher than one week ago (from 64.9% higher yesterday) and 87.3% higher than two weeks ago (from 84.8% higher yesterday and 26.4% higher 7 days ago)
 
It’s an interesting one with hospitalisations and deaths. Hospitalisations only up 10% WoW deaths down 2 days in a row (albeit minute data sample and could be delays, reflected in coming days)

Could it be that the extra time it’s taken to spread out from the surges in Bolton has allowed a significant enough number of people to get a 1st/2nd jab has made a big difference? Will the tide start to turn with cases to over the next 4-5weeks?
 
Jostler said:
It’s an interesting one with hospitalisations and deaths. Hospitalisations only up 10% WoW deaths down 2 days in a row (albeit minute data sample and could be delays, reflected in coming days)

Could it be that the extra time it’s taken to spread out from the surges in Bolton has allowed a significant enough number of people to get a 1st/2nd jab has made a big difference? Will the tide start to turn with cases to over the next 4-5weeks?
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The extra time has been supercritical, as every day goes on, the average age of the susceptible to getting covid goes down (as we vaccinate higher ages and work back to younger ones), and the risk average of each case comes down (younger are less risk). More cases of younger people aren't really much of an issue (not for hospitalisations and deaths), but it could be from long term covid complications.

All the time there is a slight immunity decrease of those who have had 2 jabs a while back, but the loss in this is seemingly tiny in comparison to the gain of younger people just getting one dose. 1 dose immunity gain for the young could equal 10-100 times the wane of the immunity of the old, it's a great mismatch.

50k cases at 1% CFR is a big problem
50k cases at 0.1% CFR is a problem 10 x less

The long covid thing for the young is my main concern now, basically, we're practically guaranteeing that most young, who don't get vaccinated are going to get immunity through natural infection, the problem is this has the risk of long covid and a higher long term risk than the vaccines would. We could soon be on 50k cases per day, and the majority of them <25, that will sweep through that section of the population like wildfire, but it will also get us to herd immunity quickly, it's going to be a race in the young age groups, that's for sure.

Managed to pull my second jab forward to two weeks before restrictions get lifted, couldn't have timed it any better.
 
Andy_W said:
All the time there is a slight immunity decrease of those who have had 2 jabs a while back, but the loss in this is seemingly tiny in comparison to the gain of younger people just getting one dose.
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What is this immunity decrease? I guess I needed worry yet as my jab 2 is only 3 days old but haven't seen anything on how bad this is.
 
SmallTown said:
What is this immunity decrease? I guess I needed worry yet as my jab 2 is only 3 days old but haven't seen anything on how bad this is.
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What I’m keen to know is re first jab, the figures that have been quoted re effectiveness vs Delta are 30% after 3 weeks vs 50% vs Alpha.

Now why was that 3 week data point used? Is that maximum effectiveness vs Deta and that’s as good as you’re going to get from it? Or does effectiveness continue to build over weeks 4/5/6 and the 3 week data point was used for another purpose I.e that’a the average length of time those people with one jab had been vaccinated for based on the roll out figures at the time for instance?
 
Jostler said:
What I’m keen to know is re first jab, the figures that have been quoted re effectiveness vs Delta are 30% after 3 weeks vs 50% vs Alpha.

Now why was that 3 week data point used? Is that maximum effectiveness vs Deta and that’s as good as you’re going to get from it? Or does effectiveness continue to build over weeks 4/5/6 and the 3 week data point was used for another purpose I.e that’a the average length of time those people with one jab had been vaccinated for based on the roll out figures at the time for instance?
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For some reason the paper that had that information isn't directly linked anymore. A table from the report below. Reading summaries from various reports at the time, the three weeks refers to at least three weeks after the first jab. So it covers 3 weeks till a second jab.

Screenshot_20210618-184013.jpg
 
As of 9am on 30 June, 4,800,907 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 26,068 (16,135 on corresponding day last week).

14 deaths were reported today (19 on corresponding day last week).

152,606 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 18 June).

44,719,762 have had a first dose vaccination. 137,991 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 32,872,450 have had a second dose. 150,688 second dose vaccinations today.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 26,068 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 20,479
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 8.0% to 19,241 per day, following 7.6% increase yesterday (and 42nd consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 69.5% higher than one week ago (from 72.3% higher yesterday) and 143.9% higher than two weeks ago (from 132.3% higher yesterday and 89.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 14 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 23 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 4.2% to 16.1 per day, following 3.3% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 11.9% higher than one week ago (from 29.7% higher yesterday) and 71.2% higher than two weeks ago (from 87.3% higher yesterday and 53.0% higher 7 days ago)
 
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