Carricks refusal to change system

[MickaelDebevePhenomenal]

What I think has happened (where we are v what we deserve) is actually reflected in our "net xG actual" also, now I've checked. We're "net xG actual" -1 average per game, by far the worst in the league (more than double the next hardest hit team), it's like a handicap starting each game 1-0 down. We would be 7th based on xG. I don't think we deserve to be 7th, but think we deserve to be around mid table, and maybe people would be crying less then?

Rather than draw comfort from the XG fgures, that is what is worrying me the most. Our forwards are incapable of scoring nailed on chances, yet our defence/midfield is incapable of keeping out chances when they arent expected to score. The 2nd Blackburn goal from Smozdics goal being the prime example.

The XG for that chance will be fairly low given the distance he has shot from, but the amount of time and space we have given him is embarrassing,

 

[atypical_boro]

A game isn't 50 minutes long.

and the league table isn’t based on 1 game.

 

[Andy_W]

That's the fundamental question right now. Will the team come good with time and Carrick sticking with what he's doing or not? We can only judge from watching matches so we don't know what improvements they are seeing in training.

Judging by what we can see on the pitch, there is zero sign of improvement. You would expect a team experiencing this much change to struggle but not to this extent. We can see all the ways that the team is struggling but what we don't know is, why. Hopefully it is just a mix of bad luck and the team taking time to adjust to the changes. If the problems are deeper rooted and won't be solved through practice and experience then we have a real issue on our hands.

The team will get better results, it sort of has to as it's pretty much impossible to maintain the bad results or get worse, for the level of side we have. The level of the side and performances haven't been as good as the second half of last season, but they certainly don't deserve to be bottom.

If we start playing better, and get better results then things will improve even further.

I think we have been getting better though, we deserved a draw with Blackburn, and deserved to beat QPR and Huddersfield, which are 3/4 of the last games. We didn't deserve anything in the first two games or against West Brom, but two of these were away.

Tonight will be interesting, as Sheff Wed are 2nd bottom, but they do deserve to be there, if the xG can be believed.

First target tonight is to not concede, or if we do concede, wait until after we've scored first.

The run of games coming up does not look simple at all, so we're going to have to start picking up points, as otherwise there will be pressure for Gibbo to swing the axe, which I think would be a very bad move.

 

[Andy_W]

Rather than draw comfort from the XG fgures, that is what is worrying me the most. Our forwards are incapable of scoring nailed on chances, yet our defence/midfield is incapable of keeping out chances when they arent expected to score. The 2nd Blackburn goal from Smozdics goal being the prime example.

The XG for that chance will be fairly low given the distance he has shot from, but the amount of time and space we have given him is embarrassing,

Yeah, I agree, we're not making the most of the chances, but at least we are creating plenty of chances. I would rather we created them and didn't score than didn't create them and didn't score etc.

Same in the other direction, we're not conceding a lot of chances, so can't be doing that bad, we're just being punished. The first half of Balckburn was open, actually, the whole game was, but we gave as good as we got, which isn't bad away form home.

I think Latte's finding his feet, he looks a good enough player to be technical enough where he should be able to finish, but he seems to just want to hit the target (keeper) at the minute, and the league is too tough for that. He is fast and fit enough where he will create his own chances from nothing if we don't create any. I would be more concerned about him if he appeared crap technically too, and was slow or unfit, but he looks the opposite. Lad just needs to calm down and get some confidence.

Both of Smozdics goals were good strikes though, give him those two again and it's likely he scores none, although saying that we gave him three of them.

 

[Andy_W]

and the league table isn’t based on 1 game.

Yeah or 6 games, or even 7 games if things don't work out tonight, with another away game against team desperate for points, who 100% have an eye on a result against us to kick their season off. Still very early days, especially with a load of new players.

We'll be fine, I'm not wetting the bed, but the squad isn't good enough for play-offs from what I've seen. If we can get near mid-table for Christmas I'll be happy with that, with the hope we can improve the squad or kick on once the players have bedded in.

 

[Borothruandthru]

I think it was Einstein who said that doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different outcome is the definition of madness.
We will see !

 

[Borothruandthru]

Got to start Jones and Mcgree ?

 

[allied_assault]

I think Howson needs to be dropped - he was at fault for WBA second goal (still galls me today) and I also think he was at fault for Blackburn's second as well - he hasn't got the legs anymore to keep up with the likes of Swift and Szmodic or whathever his name is - our defence is very exposed at times but maybe O'Brien in centre midfield can give our backline more protection.

Let me change this - maybe he should be at RB or CB (as he reads the game so well) but definitely not in our midfield, until he gets fit that is.

 

[Laughing]

I think it was Einstein who said that doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different outcome is the definition of madness.
We will see !

Einstein was referring to closed systems. Football isn't. Think of it like this. If you want to play a melody on a guitar you repeat it over and over and you improve.

I have heard this quote so often used in the wrong set of circumstances.

 

[r00fie1]

Einstein was referring to closed systems. Football isn't. Think of it like this. If you want to play a melody on a guitar you repeat it over and over and you improve.

I have heard this quote so often used in the wrong set of circumstances.

You be careful!
Being all clever an that.
Yev upset a few nah tha knows!
Afternoon young man.

 

[Laughing]

You be careful!
Being all clever an that.
Yev upset a few nah tha knows!
Afternoon young man.

Afternoon to you too old man.

Going to the pub tonight to enjoy a beer and our first win and, hopefully a clean sheet.

 

[atypical_boro]

Yeah or 6 games, or even 7 games if things don't work out tonight, with another away game against team desperate for points, who 100% have an eye on a result against us to kick their season off. Still very early days, especially with a load of new players.

We'll be fine, I'm not wetting the bed, but the squad isn't good enough for play-offs from what I've seen. If we can get near mid-table for Christmas I'll be happy with that, with the hope we can improve the squad or kick on once the players have bedded in.

I've predicted we'll come 8th. Not by getting into the play-off spots and slipping down, but due to a late season surge.

 

[Borothruandthru]

Einstein was referring to closed systems. Football isn't. Think of it like this. If you want to play a melody on a guitar you repeat it over and over and you improve.

I have heard this quote so often used in the wrong set of circumstances.

You do realise when we get beat again I'll remind you of this . I was referring to team selection more than anything. Picking players who frankly aren't up to it over again is madness imo.

 

[Andy_W]

I've predicted we'll come 8th. Not by getting into the play-off spots and slipping down, but due to a late season surge.

Yeah, I think about the same, and the same gradual progression up the league, but about 8th is our limit, unless we get some seriously good transfers or loans in Jan.

 

[viv_andersons_nana]

Yeah, I think about the same, and the same gradual progression up the league, but about 8th is our limit, unless we get some seriously good transfers or loans in Jan.

8th is our limit? Last season the gap between 8th and 6th was one point. The year it was 5 points but if we’d held on to a 1-0 lead at Luton instead of capitulating to a 3-1 loss we’d have finished one point ahead of them in 6th place.

The year before was 7 points. The year before that was 6th and 7th level, 8th 2 points back. The year before that was 4 points but it was the season Derby had been cheating. The year before it was a point between 6th and 7th and 3 points to 8th.

This is a very long-winded way of saying if you’re saying our limit is 8th, then surely there’s ample opportunity for that to be adjusted to 6th given the historical record of gaps between 6th and 8th place.

And that’s why I think we’ll finish 5th.

 

[atypical_boro]

8th is our limit? Last season the gap between 8th and 6th was one point. The year it was 5 points but if we’d held on to a 1-0 lead at Luton instead of capitulating to a 3-1 loss we’d have finished one point ahead of them in 6th place.

The year before was 7 points. The year before that was 6th and 7th level, 8th 2 points back. The year before that was 4 points but it was the season Derby had been cheating. The year before it was a point between 6th and 7th and 3 points to 8th.

This is a very long-winded way of saying if you’re saying our limit is 8th, then surely there’s ample opportunity for that to be adjusted to 6th given the historical record of gaps between 6th and 8th place.

And that’s why I think we’ll finish 5th.

I think play-offs, or just missing out on them, may well be beyond our reach this season. I think a lot of the players are going to take a bit more time to bed in and I think it'll be a much bumpier road than last season. I don't think play-offs are impossible but I sort of feel like lightning won't strike twice in the same place.

 

[Andy_W]

8th is our limit? Last season the gap between 8th and 6th was one point. The year it was 5 points but if we’d held on to a 1-0 lead at Luton instead of capitulating to a 3-1 loss we’d have finished one point ahead of them in 6th place.

The year before was 7 points. The year before that was 6th and 7th level, 8th 2 points back. The year before that was 4 points but it was the season Derby had been cheating. The year before it was a point between 6th and 7th and 3 points to 8th.

This is a very long-winded way of saying if you’re saying our limit is 8th, then surely there’s ample opportunity for that to be adjusted to 6th given the historical record of gaps between 6th and 8th place.

And that’s why I think we’ll finish 5th.

I just think there will be at least 4/5 better teams than us for the remainder of the year, and a further 3/4 will sneak ahead of us due to points already accrued.

Sure, we might gain a point to close the gap, but other teams will too, and 4th to 10th is going to be pretty competitive/ close I think, as one team drops out another fills in etc, while we meander along around 10th/11th. 8th is my optimistic choice at the minute, but may be revised, will see how we get on over the next 10 games.

 

[viv_andersons_nana]

I just think there will be at least 4/5 better teams than us for the remainder of the year, and a further 3/4 will sneak ahead of us due to points already accrued.

Sure, we might gain a point to close the gap, but other teams will too, and 4th to 10th is going to be pretty competitive/ close I think, as one team drops out another fills in etc, while we meander along around 10th/11th. 8th is my optimistic choice at the minute, but may be revised, will see how we get on over the next 10 games.

Can’t argue with you TBF. I think there’s ample time. We could still win it.

 

[Colin Warnek]

Maybe just maybe he expected the recruitment team to have recruited 12 players that might fit the system he clearly prefers, rather than have to change his system because half his squad can't play it.

Sounds a lot like rinse and repeat of last season.

 

[wilkos_perm]

From the horses mouth in todays presser. Said the system suits the players. I fear he's doomed if hes not prepared to change a system which is clearly not working.

Absolutely nobody is performing. Shuffling them around a bit isn’t going to rectify it. The players need to step up, and the manager of course needs to give them the confidence to do so.