The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Today's headline analysis:

• 98,515 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 108,893
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 0.9% to 108,537 per day, following 3.6% increase yesterday (and 26th daily increase in the past 27 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 29.9% higher than one week ago (from 37.5% higher yesterday) and 108.9% higher than two weeks ago (from 108.9% higher yesterday and 76.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 143 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 3 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 15.4% to 106.0 per day, following 6.1% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 5.5% lower than one week ago (from 17.5% lower yesterday) and 10.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 22.9% lower yesterday and 6.1% lower 7 days ago)

Significant bank holiday effects in the reported deaths figures.
 
kuepper said:
The number of hospital patients in England with Covid has risen by over 1000 in the last 24 hours. We now have over 9500 Covid inpatients - the highest number since 3 March. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-nu...n-hospital-in-england-rises-to-9-546-12505307
Click to expand...
I would say that the Article says nothing about ICU patients. I would also add that this wave is likely to be very quick given the number of infections.

That means the rise in hospitalizations may not be that significant when considering overall capacity. Clearly its an issue to the people involved.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 129,471 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 98,515
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 5.1% to 114,086 per day, following 0.9% increase yesterday (and 27th daily increase in the past 28 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 29.7% higher than one week ago (from 29.9% higher yesterday) and 111.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 108.9% higher yesterday and 82.8% higher 7 days ago)
• 18 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 143 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 20.8% to 84.0 per day, following 15.4% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 27.1% lower than one week ago (from 5.5% lower yesterday) and 26.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 10.7% lower yesterday and 5.8% lower 7 days ago)

Record reported new cases for the 7th time in the past 14 days.
 
Laughing said:
I would say that the Article says nothing about ICU patients. I would also add that this wave is likely to be very quick given the number of infections.

That means the rise in hospitalizations may not be that significant when considering overall capacity. Clearly its an issue to the people involved.
Click to expand...

It's probably too early to tell with ICU patients. Last winter, cases by specimen date peaked on 4th January, but the number of patients in mechanical ventilation beds didn't peak until 24th January, so almost three weeks later.

Of course, last winter the Government had reimposed household restrictions by Boxing Day, which had a dampening effect on the numbers. I suspect that the amount of household mixing over this Christmas and the upcoming New Year's Eve, from people across the country, will give the virus plenty of opportunity to continue to grow for a while yet.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 183,037 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 129,471
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 9.6% to 125,074 per day, following 5.1% increase yesterday (and 28th daily increase in the past 29 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 36.1% higher than one week ago (from 29.7% higher yesterday) and 116.2% higher than two weeks ago (from 111.5% higher yesterday and 89.3% higher 7 days ago)
• 68 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 18 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 12.2% to 73.7 per day, following 20.8% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 34.1% lower than one week ago (from 27.1% lower yesterday) and 35.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 26.6% lower yesterday and 7.6% lower 7 days ago)

Record reported new cases for the 8th time in the past 15 days.

54% increase in the 7-day average for daily hospital admissions in England compared with one week ago.
48% increase in the number of Covid patients in hospital in England compared with one week ago.
 
Borotommo said:
Thanks @Billy Horner. Is it easy for you to report daily hospitalisation numbers, so new plus yesterday minus recovered etc? If not, maybe someon3 can run a parallel report?
Click to expand...
Yes I would like to see that too Billy, if it's not too much trouble? It's great to see deaths coming down, but I worry about the hospitalizations rising so dramatically.
 
I posted this yesterday but would have been better on here. An excellent summation of the situation in the NHS concerning infection rates and hospital treatment was posted on Twitter by Chris Hopson the CEO of NHS Providers (the association of NHS trusts and foundation trusts). There is quite a bit of it but it is worth reading as it gives an insight into what is happening in our hospitals and what the concerns of health care professionals are.


How's NHS doing at moment in relation to omicron and other pressures?
New thread based on latest data. Note that we prefer to use numbers of covid-19 patients in hospital, rather than new admissions, as two days more up to date and better represents whole picture. Trust leaders looking at data very carefully. Number of patients with covid-19 in English hospitals is definitely rising, but not precipitately so. Numbers across country as a whole have risen by 27% in a week - comparing figures for 27 December (released today) to 20 Dec. It's notable that we are now seeing growth in these numbers across the country, not just in London, as before. North West numbers up 38% in a week, East of England up 33% and Midlands up 23%. All comparing number of covid hospital patients 20 to 27 December. London data, in particular, is important as it’s been the clear epicentre of omicron up to now. Number of covid-19 patients in London hospitals has grown by 45% from 20 Dec to 27 Dec. There's currently a 14 day doubling time (1,360 on Dec 13 to 2,640 on Dec 27 and daily growth rates over the last week have been, from the 20th, 9%, 5%, 7%, 3%, 8%, 7% and 9%. Important to look at overall numbers as well as growth rates. 2,640 covid-19 patients in London hospitals versus 7,917 in last January’s peak (18/1/21) - a third of that peak. Equivalent figures for England as a whole are 8,474 covid patients in English hospitals today versus 34,336 in January peak (18/1/21) – 25% of that peak.

So whilst numbers are growing, we are currently some way from number of hospitalised covid patients in previous peaks. Talking to trust chief executives this morning, what’s very interesting is how many are talking about number of asymptomatic patients being admitted to hospital for other reasons and then testing positive for covid. Some are describing this as ‘incidental covid'. Trusts not, at moment, reporting large numbers of patients with severe Covid type respiratory problems needing critical care. Also not needing to massively increase use of oxygen. Both of which we saw in last Jan’s delta variant peak + very difficult critical care surge. We should therefore be cautious about over-interpreting current raw covid admission data. As covid community infection rate rises rapidly due to omicron, we will get more cases of this type of incidental covid-19 in hospital. Raw data doesn’t distinguish between two. Important to note these cases will bring complications for hospital/community services as patients will need to be isolated to avoid cross infection and they will add to overall pressure. But these cases are, obviously, not same as covid driven serious respiratory illness. In the words of one hospital chief executive in the South West this morning: “we’ve seen a 30% increase in covid positive inpatient numbers compared to 7 days ago. But largest proportion are incidental finding on admission, so covid-19 is not the reason for admission. “It’s therefore important to look at the total number of patients admitted, not just the raw number of covid patients admitted, particularly if they don’t need full covid care. For our trust as a whole, overall admissions are no higher than they were seven days ago”. We must, though, keep broader omicron context in mind. We still don’t know, and are unlikely to know for some time, whether we’ll see large numbers of seriously ill older people in hospital as omicron reaches older population and effects of Xmas mixing work through. Frustrating though it may be, we need more data before we can reach any firm conclusions on what the full risk from omicron is. It’s still far too early to say that we don’t need to worry about omicron and hospitalisations as some are unhelpfully saying / implying.

We must also remember that, as a whole, NHS remains under huge pressure. Trust leaders are telling us that, whilst they can cope with current covid caseloads, staff are at full stretch. Trusts also expect to come under greater pressure as they head into January. The current combination of staff absences, very busy urgent care pathway, planned care cases that can no longer be delayed & extending booster campaign all bring significant pressure. Right across GPs, social care, ambulances, mental health and community services. Striking how many chief executives are saying that, on current evidence, they think omicron related staff absences may be a greater challenge than number of omicron related severely ill patients they have to treat. Several trusts told me today they’re now at point where they need to redeploy staff to keep essential services going. If current trajectory in covid staff absences is maintained, these pressures will grow significantly. In this context even relatively small numbers of extra covid cases will bring big difficulties. Chief Executives incredibly grateful for commitment and professionalism of front line staff to cope with these pressures. At present, optimistic they can cope with current caseload. But worried about what may be coming. Preparing for the worst but hoping for the best.


"Incidental COVID" is an interesting new thing (to me at least), it where a patient is admitted to hospital for something like a knee op and when tested is found to have COVID this is probably indicative of the amount of asymptomatic COVID in circulation currently and it does mean that some people recorded as being in hospital with COVID aren't there because if it.

The pressure that may cause further restrictions will be if absences in NHS staff becomes more critical.

But my main take from that is hope that when this peak passes we can look forward to Spring and Summer of pretty much normal activity.
 
Borotommo said:
Thanks @Billy Horner. Is it easy for you to report daily hospitalisation numbers, so new plus yesterday minus recovered etc? If not, maybe someon3 can run a parallel report?
Click to expand...
Laughing said:
Yes I would like to see that too Billy, if it's not too much trouble? It's great to see deaths coming down, but I worry about the hospitalizations rising so dramatically.
Click to expand...

I'll see if I can include something in the daily updates about hospitalisations, etc. The main problem is that the UK numbers tend to be nearly a week out of date at the moment, so it's only really the NHS England figures that you can rely on.
 
Muttley said:
I posted this yesterday but would have been better on here. An excellent summation of the situation in the NHS concerning infection rates and hospital treatment was posted on Twitter by Chris Hopson the CEO of NHS Providers (the association of NHS trusts and foundation trusts). There is quite a bit of it but it is worth reading as it gives an insight into what is happening in our hospitals and what the concerns of health care professionals are.


How's NHS doing at moment in relation to omicron and other pressures?
New thread based on latest data. Note that we prefer to use numbers of covid-19 patients in hospital, rather than new admissions, as two days more up to date and better represents whole picture. Trust leaders looking at data very carefully. Number of patients with covid-19 in English hospitals is definitely rising, but not precipitately so. Numbers across country as a whole have risen by 27% in a week - comparing figures for 27 December (released today) to 20 Dec. It's notable that we are now seeing growth in these numbers across the country, not just in London, as before. North West numbers up 38% in a week, East of England up 33% and Midlands up 23%. All comparing number of covid hospital patients 20 to 27 December. London data, in particular, is important as it’s been the clear epicentre of omicron up to now. Number of covid-19 patients in London hospitals has grown by 45% from 20 Dec to 27 Dec. There's currently a 14 day doubling time (1,360 on Dec 13 to 2,640 on Dec 27 and daily growth rates over the last week have been, from the 20th, 9%, 5%, 7%, 3%, 8%, 7% and 9%. Important to look at overall numbers as well as growth rates. 2,640 covid-19 patients in London hospitals versus 7,917 in last January’s peak (18/1/21) - a third of that peak. Equivalent figures for England as a whole are 8,474 covid patients in English hospitals today versus 34,336 in January peak (18/1/21) – 25% of that peak.

So whilst numbers are growing, we are currently some way from number of hospitalised covid patients in previous peaks. Talking to trust chief executives this morning, what’s very interesting is how many are talking about number of asymptomatic patients being admitted to hospital for other reasons and then testing positive for covid. Some are describing this as ‘incidental covid'. Trusts not, at moment, reporting large numbers of patients with severe Covid type respiratory problems needing critical care. Also not needing to massively increase use of oxygen. Both of which we saw in last Jan’s delta variant peak + very difficult critical care surge. We should therefore be cautious about over-interpreting current raw covid admission data. As covid community infection rate rises rapidly due to omicron, we will get more cases of this type of incidental covid-19 in hospital. Raw data doesn’t distinguish between two. Important to note these cases will bring complications for hospital/community services as patients will need to be isolated to avoid cross infection and they will add to overall pressure. But these cases are, obviously, not same as covid driven serious respiratory illness. In the words of one hospital chief executive in the South West this morning: “we’ve seen a 30% increase in covid positive inpatient numbers compared to 7 days ago. But largest proportion are incidental finding on admission, so covid-19 is not the reason for admission. “It’s therefore important to look at the total number of patients admitted, not just the raw number of covid patients admitted, particularly if they don’t need full covid care. For our trust as a whole, overall admissions are no higher than they were seven days ago”. We must, though, keep broader omicron context in mind. We still don’t know, and are unlikely to know for some time, whether we’ll see large numbers of seriously ill older people in hospital as omicron reaches older population and effects of Xmas mixing work through. Frustrating though it may be, we need more data before we can reach any firm conclusions on what the full risk from omicron is. It’s still far too early to say that we don’t need to worry about omicron and hospitalisations as some are unhelpfully saying / implying.

We must also remember that, as a whole, NHS remains under huge pressure. Trust leaders are telling us that, whilst they can cope with current covid caseloads, staff are at full stretch. Trusts also expect to come under greater pressure as they head into January. The current combination of staff absences, very busy urgent care pathway, planned care cases that can no longer be delayed & extending booster campaign all bring significant pressure. Right across GPs, social care, ambulances, mental health and community services. Striking how many chief executives are saying that, on current evidence, they think omicron related staff absences may be a greater challenge than number of omicron related severely ill patients they have to treat. Several trusts told me today they’re now at point where they need to redeploy staff to keep essential services going. If current trajectory in covid staff absences is maintained, these pressures will grow significantly. In this context even relatively small numbers of extra covid cases will bring big difficulties. Chief Executives incredibly grateful for commitment and professionalism of front line staff to cope with these pressures. At present, optimistic they can cope with current caseload. But worried about what may be coming. Preparing for the worst but hoping for the best.


"Incidental COVID" is an interesting new thing (to me at least), it where a patient is admitted to hospital for something like a knee op and when tested is found to have COVID this is probably indicative of the amount of asymptomatic COVID in circulation currently and it does mean that some people recorded as being in hospital with COVID aren't there because if it.

The pressure that may cause further restrictions will be if absences in NHS staff becomes more critical.

But my main take from that is hope that when this peak passes we can look forward to Spring and Summer of pretty much normal activity.
Click to expand...

I think one of the other main pressures on the NHS is the need to keep Covid and non-Covid patients separated from each other. What that means in practice is that they have to designate individual wards as being Covid or non-Covid.

NHS bed occupancy at this time of year is already at 95%. Even if you only have a small number of patients with Covid in a hospital, you would still have to designate the whole of, say, a 24-bed ward as being for Covid patients, meaning that you are taking more and more capacity out of the system, at a time when it is under the greatest strain. Obviously, this problem then reoccurs every time you fill one ward with Covid patients and have to designate the whole of another ward.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 189,213 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 183,037
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 7.9% to 134,992 per day, following 9.6% increase yesterday (and 29th daily increase in the past 30 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 40.1% higher than one week ago (from 36.1% higher yesterday) and 113.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 116.2% higher yesterday and 100.3% higher 7 days ago)
• 2,082 new admissions to English hospitals in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 1,751
• 7-day average for admissions to English hospitals increases by 10.9% to 1,429 per day, following 8.3% increase yesterday (and 26th daily increase in the past 27 days)
• 7-day average for admissions to English hospitals is 62.8% higher than one week ago (from 53.9% higher yesterday) and 87.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 69.6% higher yesterday and 24.4% higher 7 days ago)
• 11,452 Covid patients in English hospitals, up from yesterday's 10,462
• Number of Covid patients in English hospitals increases by 9.5%, following 9.6% increase yesterday
• Number of Covid patients in English hospitals is 61.0% higher than one week ago (from 47.8% higher yesterday) and 78.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 64.5% higher yesterday and 16.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 332 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 68 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 35.9% to 100.1 per day, following 12.2% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 10.6% lower than one week ago (from 34.1% lower yesterday) and 12.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 35.8% lower yesterday and 8.2% lower 7 days ago)

Record reported new cases for the 9th time in the past 16 days.
 
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