The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Based on what's happening in rest of UK and on mainland Europe it's looking like we'll be taking action too late again, all because of the Tory party's internal politics and Johnson wanting to be popular whatever the cost to people's health.
 
Here’s a theory, we are the only country that doesn’t impose any new restrictions, cases start to plateau, hospitalisations don’t flood the NHS and deaths remain stable.

All of a sudden not only did he get Brexit done, oversee the most successful vaccination and booster roll out in the western world but also we are the country that remained open over Christmas.

Talk about playing with peoples lives for political gain.
 
Pak_Doo_Ik said:
Here’s a theory, we are the only country that doesn’t impose any new restrictions, cases start to plateau, hospitalisations don’t flood the NHS and deaths remain stable.

All of a sudden not only did he get Brexit done, oversee the most successful vaccination and booster roll out in the western world but also we are the country that remained open over Christmas.

Talk about playing with peoples lives for political gain.
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I think we all know now they are going to wait until they think it's peaked before they impose restrictions. Then they impose them, cases fall naturally and they claim it worked.

Playing politics with peoples lives AND livelihoods.
 
Pak_Doo_Ik said:
Here’s a theory, we are the only country that doesn’t impose any new restrictions, cases start to plateau, hospitalisations don’t flood the NHS and deaths remain stable.

All of a sudden not only did he get Brexit done, oversee the most successful vaccination and booster roll out in the western world but also we are the country that remained open over Christmas.

Talk about playing with peoples lives for political gain.
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I think we're a bit different to the rest, as we've had so much more infection and death, and we don't have competent leadership. We've already killed a lot of who were susceptible, and we've boosted the crap out of everyone else due to everyones fear that the government won't control it (good for boosters, but the reason for it shouldn't have been necessasry).

Even if it works (which I think it will), it will be because of previous failures and the people taking matters into their own hands, being more cautious and getting boosted. By it working, I would say that's anywhere around or below half peak admissions, for a very short duration (so around 2k).

He got Brexit through with failures, and we'll get through this with failiures but most people have wised up to him now. The funny thing is even the far right of his gang are ***ed off, as they think they've had their liberty stolen (which is ludicrous). He's slowly alientating himself from everyone, it's great.
 
SmallTown said:
I think we all know now they are going to wait until they think it's peaked before they impose restrictions. Then they impose them, cases fall naturally and they claim it worked.

Playing politics with peoples lives AND livelihoods.
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They won't do it, their far right/ liberty nutters would go absolutely wild if we put restrictions in after the peak, and it's likely London has already peaked (for cases, not for hospitalisations).

I think more and more people are coming round to how this works, albeit it's took them a year and a half to semi figure it out. Harder to pull the wool over peoples eyes when there's so many that understand it now.

They won't lock London down, after it's peaked, and they won't lock the other areas down without locking London down. There's little we can do about infections anywhere now, getting immunity/ infection faster might even help us come out the other end faster. We need more certainy on hospitalisations, and a better understanding of how much people have slowed down their normal lives. Once we know that, we can figure out if it's better to get over this quick, rather than draw it out an few extra weeks. We'll know this soon though. A shorter/ higher peak that doesn't cause a massive nightmare for healtcare would likely be preferrable for many reasons.
 
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Andy_W said:
They won't do it, their far right/ liberty nutters would go absolutely wild if we put restrictions in after the peak, and it's likely London has already peaked (for cases, not for hospitalisations).

I think more and more people are coming round to how this works, albeit it's took them a year and a half to semi figure it out. Harder to pull the wool over peoples eyes when there's so many that understand it now.

They won't lock London down, after it's peaked, and they won't lock the other areas down without locking London down. There's little we can do about infections anywhere now, getting immunity/ infection faster might even help us come out the other end faster. We need more certainy on hospitalisations, and a better understanding of how much people have slowed down their normal lives. Once we know that, we can figure out if it's better to get over this quick, rather than draw it out an few extra weeks. We'll know this soon though. A shorter/ higher peak that doesn't cause a massive nightmare for healtcare would likely be preferrable for many reasons.
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And punishing hospitality again on NYE when they have probably ordered stuff in for it already would be cruel. I hope that the data points to not shutting down hospitality.
 
I think the charts below are a clear indication that peoples movements/ behaviour has changed a hell of a lot, as eveywhere has levelled off and even started to go down, even places with V-Low Omicron.

There was a hope that London had reached its HIT, but seeing as cases have dropped off everywhere, and other places have not had crazy Omicron growth, the thought of London HIT has reduced in credability. London's behaviour will have just changed, like everywhere else.

London might level off for a while or start going up again once people go back to "being normal" which I expect will be on Christmas day, and start to show up again as increases a couple of days after. So we might get declines/ levelling across the UK total cases until then, but we maybe shouldn't treat this as a sign that we have this nailed, as we likely don't.

This might mean there is an increased case for restrictions post Christmas, but this pause of growth will give some good time to let the Hospitalisation/ Death lag play out, so we will have all the info to make the correct decision (assuming the gov are capible of doing that). The UK will basically be using London as it's test case, and as London have a low vax uptake compared to the rest, what we see for London should be the worse case scenario for the UK (but amplified in line with the population outside of London).

Cases are much less important over the next week, the figure to keep watching is London hospitalisations, if they stay quite low and stop doubling, we should still be looking good.

1640187305449.png
 
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Andy_W said:
I think the charts below are a clear indication that peoples movements/ behaviour has changed a hell of a lot, as eveywhere has levelled off and even started to go down, even places with V-Low Omicron.

There was a hope that London had reached its HIT, but seeing as cases have dropped off everywhere, and other places have not had crazy Omicron growth, the thought of London HIT has reduced in credability. London's behaviour will have just changed, like everywhere else.

London might level off for a while or start going up again once people go back to "being normal" which I expect will be on Christmas day, and start to show up again as increases a couple of days after. So we might get declines/ levelling across the UK total cases until then, but we maybe shouldn't treat this as a sign that we have this nailed, as we likely don't.

This might mean there is an increased case for restrictions post Christmas, but this pause of growth will give some good time to let the Hospitalisation/ Death lag play out, so we will have all the info to make the correct decision (assuming the gov are capible of doing that). The UK will basically be using London as it's test case, and as London have a low vax uptake compared to the rest, what we see for London should be the worse case scenario for the UK (but amplified in line with the population outside of London).

Cases are much less important over the next week, the figure to keep watching is London hospitalisations, if they stay quite low and stop doubling, we should still be looking good.

View attachment 29982
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An interesting graph. We haven't really changed too much either but it has had a significant effect. Maybe with the booster roll out and *if* people can be fairly sensible over Christmas there is no need for any further restrictions.

If the Government are looking at the same info I can't see how they can introduce further restrictions when cases are levelling off - TBH I wouldn't want them to either.
 
MolteniArcore said:
An interesting graph. We haven't really changed too much either but it has had a significant effect. Maybe with the booster roll out and *if* people can be fairly sensible over Christmas there is no need for any further restrictions.

If the Government are looking at the same info I can't see how they can introduce further restrictions when cases are levelling off - TBH I wouldn't want them to either.
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I think asking people to be sensible is a good idea, but expecting anything of it is optomistic, as the reason to me that growth has stopped is so people can go nuts on Christmas day and then even moreso in the days after when I expect people will be keeping away from their eldery family, and seeing more of their own age goups.

The good thing is infections should be relatively low on Christmas (for the rate of mixing), as people have been quite careful, but it won't take long to pick up again in the week or so after.

They will know the levelling off is artificial (I hope), but London hospitalisations are picking up quickly now. London case growth rate is still down mind, on the day the UK just recorded 106k cases.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1473685604852547601

The hospitalisation line is steepening, just a case of finding out what that lag is, which should tell us how far it can go.
1640191122141.png
Those on ventilation not going up though, which is good, they're actually going down a touch. If that line stays flat it would be great.

1640191160453.png
 
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Today's headline analysis:

• 106,122 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 90,629
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 4.5% to 87,958 per day, following 5.3% increase yesterday (and 21st daily increase in the past 22 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 58.9% higher than one week ago (from 63.1% higher yesterday) and 89.3% higher than two weeks ago (from 82.8% higher yesterday and 32.6% higher 7 days ago)
• 140 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 172 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 3.0% to 111.9 per day, following 2.8% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 2.6% lower than one week ago (from 0.7% higher yesterday) and 7.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 5.8% lower yesterday and 5.9% lower 7 days ago)

Record number of reported new cases for the 4th time in the past 8 days. Rate of increase in the 7-day average does appear to be slowing though.
 
An important distinction is whether people are going into hospital due to covid or whether people are testing positive at hospital whilst being treated for something else. Is there any stats for that does anybody know? Surely with the amount of infections in London at the moment a fair proportion of admissions will be people testing positive whilst being treated for something else. Ventilator stats have gone down
 
Another little thought that I have been pondering, one I think I know the answer to.

If the Omicron variant had blitzed Manchester rather than London, would now be back in tiers and following another road map???
 
Borotommo said:
What evidence do you have that the LFTs are useless? When you are “thinking for yourself”, what information are you using to guide your decision making? I mean real validated information, not the odd unsubstantiated case. Your GP has gone rogue if she is saying these things are no good. She should be reported for that
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Seriously why would I report her ? I know a lot of people who have done multiple LF tests that were negative and tested positive with the full test , so maybe she's actually talking from experience of them ,rather than someone just telling the masses what they should do .
Pak_Doo_Ik said:
Just out of interest what does your GP recommend you do then, just go straight for a PCR and potentially clog up and already overfull system???
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Yes , and clog up the system ? I doubt it very much especially if you get a kit sent to your home , seriously I,m surprised if some people actually leave there homes on here ,such is the fear they are projecting
 
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