Jonny, whilst I wish you were right, no they haven't . We have had a drop yesterday, but that is after days of consecutive increases. Also the rate of increase on a 4 day moving average isn't really slowing either. To be clear I am saving the figures daily and plotting my own graphs.
Here are some graphs and charts from Spain (in Spanish). 4 day moving averages. Then calculate a daily increase rate (multiplying factor) where 1 means no increase. We were up at 4. Pretty steady downward curve since we started lock down. I think you are perhaps behind us in terms of timing of growth. Also, not sure what difference a weaker lock down will make on your figures in the future.
https://smreputationmetrics.wordpre...situacion-y-tendencia-tasa-de-multiplicacion/
Here is a Google translation of the stuff from today:
5 April 2020
Notable falls in cases and daily deaths. Today it is time to apply caution with the reading of the results due to the possible weekend effect, which leads to the delay in accounting and reporting of information. That could mainly affect data from new cases, whose official data could be somewhat below the real ones (and the correction is seen in the data communication on Tuesday).
Taking these caveats into account, let's go to the data.
6,023 new cases. It is the minimum since March 23. 7,026 cases yesterday. 130,759 cases in total. Strong push down of the multiplication rate, to 1.28.
674 died yesterday compared to 809 yesterday. The data may be influenced by the weekend effect, but hopefully little. We were already saying that the drop in new daily cases was going to carry over into a drop in daily deaths in the following 5-10 days. There are 12,418 deaths in total. Also sharp drop in the multiplication rate, which is already below 1.4, to 1.37
As we announced yesterday, we stopped giving information about the valuable evolution data in hospitalization and in the ICU, because the Autonomous Communities are following different accounting criteria, and it no longer allows comparing with previous data in the series, which is essential to calculate well and with sense the multiplication rates.