Tories close gap on Labour to 1 point

[Andy_W]

Not entirely true though that is it. Starmer went in to the 2020 Labour leadership election claiming that he'd be sticking to the 2017 Labour manifesto. He made 10 pledges that were all basically Corbynite policy.

If he'd, more honestly, offered himself to the Labour membership as a "different approach", does anyone really think he'd still have won the contest? I think it's extremely doubtful.

It was Labours manifesto, not specifically Corbyn's, and there's zero point in a manifesto if you can't win to use it (or the media don't let you win etc).

Was their 2017 manifesto much different to 97,01,05,10,15,19? keeping in mind that some will obviously change with the times.

I can't find a simple way of comparing these, but would be interested to read it. I didn't take much interest pre 2010, and have largely forgot the older manifesto's, or not had as much interest as it's been quite plain to see that anything other than Tories would have been a good choice for every election I've voted in.

Starmer and Reeves will support that surely? If they're consistent with their own arguments from a few months ago when Boris's government was increasing corporation tax...

I thought they wanted to keep it as is (which seems ok for now), but I don't know what they should campaign based on as they can't get in till Jan 2025 at this rate.

Budget 2021: Keir Starmer backs delay in raising corporation tax

Labour leader says party would have put NHS and social care ‘front and centre’ of budget

www.theguardian.com

The UK is changing by the minute, so what's best for now might not be in 2.5 years, in fact it almost certainly won't be. We should be well passed this pandemic, teh war should be over, the crazy inflation should be over, the looming recession should be over and the world will have calmed down from going from no demand to peak demand. Hopefully the main hit of Brexit will have already happened by then also.

What I would prefer (for now) is maybe lowering CT for smaller businesses, and increasing it for larger businesses.

 

[MolteniArcore]

Be interesting to see what all their ideas are for tackling inflation, and what we should do about our energy sources/ generation.

Sounds like their only solution to any problem is cutting taxes and none of them so far have been able to argue ow to sensibly fund them or counter the argument that the cuts might cause inflation to rise.

They are sounding like a bunch of amateurs when it comes to the economy. Once the Tories have lost the perception of being good with the economy they are finished.

It's quite nice watching them destroy their own party fighting each other to cling to some kind of power.

 

[SuperStu]

Their argument is to always oppose the gov as is this role as the opposition.

 

[SuperStu]

Was their 2017 manifesto much different to 97,01,05,10,15,19? keeping in mind that some will obviously change with the times.

Massively different from 2001-2015.

Similar to 2019 (as you'd expect).

Similar in how radical it was to 1997 (which people who describe themselves as Blairite/centrist/moderate/sensible have memory holed).

 

[Andy_W]

Sounds like their only solution to any problem is cutting taxes and none of them so far have been able to argue ow to sensibly fund them or counter the argument that the cuts might cause inflation to rise.

They are sounding like a bunch of amateurs when it comes to the economy. Once the Tories have lost the perception of being good with the economy they are finished.

It's quite nice watching them destroy their own party fighting each other to cling to some kind of power.

Cutting corporation tax wouldn't get many additional votes I think, not from the public, but the donors and Tory MP's with fingers in the pies would love it.

We need investment, now more than ever (largely on energy independence and cutting the NHS backlog IMO) and we need the tax to fund/ bail out those individuals who are really struggling with inflation/ energy costs. I don't see where the money comes from to invest or help anyone, if we reduce the size of the pot, it makes little sense. If business is struggling then the CT makes no difference as they will be running at a loss or breaking even anyway, and thus have no profits to pay CT on.

I suppose CT is a small piece of the pie mind, only about 5% of income, where as income tax/ NI/ VAT makes up about 70%.

 

[newyddion]

Right wing if the Labour Party?

 

[Andy_W]

Massively different from 2001-2015.

Similar to 2019 (as you'd expect).

Similar in how radical it was to 1997 (which people who describe themselves as Blairite/centrist/moderate/sensible have memory holed).

I expected there to be differences as you mention, but I'll have to go and hunt down 2015 and 2019 and see how they compare.

1997 was the last time they broke away from the Tory strangle hold, so can understand why that may have been more centrist, and we may need to do similar now to get power back, albeit probably not to anywhere near the same lengths.

 

[BoroMart]

Not entirely true though that is it. Starmer went in to the 2020 Labour leadership election claiming that he'd be sticking to the 2017 Labour manifesto. He made 10 pledges that were all basically Corbynite policy.

A years is a long time in politics, 2 years an eon.

We've had some massive global issues that would obviously test those policies. Corbyn wouldn't have been able to stick by them either.

 

[TeessideCleveland]

Worst electoral defeat in 80 years under Corbyn suggests it wasn't heading for government any time soon under his leadership

 

[SuperStu]

Tories have a poor chance of getting more seats than Labour (although I expect them to improve with a new leader), but they have even less chance of a coalition with Green or LD.

Don't discount a tory-LD coalition. The LDs have already paid the political cost of working with the tories. They'd have less reason now to avoid coalition than they did in 2010.

Anyone who's support the Lib Dems lose by working with tories is already long gone. They've been gone since 2015.

 

[Andy_W]

Massively different from 2001-2015.

Similar to 2019 (as you'd expect).

Similar in how radical it was to 1997 (which people who describe themselves as Blairite/centrist/moderate/sensible have memory holed).

2015 - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32284159
2019 - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50501411 included BBC for comparison, but nowhere near as much detail so added another
2019 - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/21/whats-in-the-labour-party-manifesto

The 2015 one looked pretty good to me (below), not sure what we would do now different to this, or how 2017/19 was different, most of the info seemed to be about brexit, but most of that won't apply now, or would need a new approach since we left the EU.

• Raising the minimum wage to more than £8 by October 2019
• Freezing rail fares for one year
• Protecting tax credits for working families so they rise with inflation
• Introducing a new National Primary Childcare Service, guaranteeing childcare from 08:00 to 18:00
• The manifesto also pledges there will be no increase to the basic or higher rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT.
• "Cut the deficit every year and balance the books as soon as possible in the next Parliament"
• Bring back the 50p top income tax rate for those earning over £150,000
• End the non-dom rule that allows some wealthy UK residents to limit the tax they pay on earnings outside the country
• "Cut and then freeze" business rates
• Guarantee an apprenticeship for all school leavers who attain certain grades and "require any firm that gets a large government contract to offer apprenticeships"
• Ban zero-hours contracts deemed to be "exploitative"
• Freeze energy bills until 2017 and give the regulator powers to cut bills
• Introduce a British Investment Bank
• Invest £2.5bn more than the Tories in health to recruit 8,000 more GPs, 20,000 more nurses and 3,000 more midwives
• Guarantee GP appointments within 48 hours
• Guarantee cancer tests within a week
• Repeal the coalition's "privatisation plans" and cap health service profits
• Create a "gold-standard technical baccalaureate" for 16 to-18-year olds
• Protect the education budgets from early years through to post-16 education
• Ensure all teachers in state schools are qualified
• Cap class sizes for five, six and seven-year-olds
• Ensure all young people study English and maths to age 18
• Appoint directors of school standards
• Extend free childcare from 15 to 25 hours for working parents of three and four-year-olds
• Ensure all primary schools guarantee access to childcare from 08:00 to 18:00
• Double paternity leave to four weeks, with paternity pay increased by more than £100 a week
• Build at least 200,000 new homes a year by 2020 with "first priority for local first time buyers"
• Guarantee three-year housing tenancies with a "ceiling on excessive rent rises"
• Scrap housing benefit changes that penalise those with spare rooms (also known as the Bedroom Tax)
• Introduce a compulsory jobs guarantee, which will "provide a paid starter job for every young person unemployed for over a year"
• Stop migrants claiming benefits until they have lived in the UK for two years
• Recruit an additional 1,000 border staff, paid for by a small charge on non-visa visitors to the UK
• Safeguard over 10,000 frontline police officers over the next three years
• People working in public facing roles in the public sector will have to speak English
• End the badger cull, ban wild animals in circumstances, improve protection for dogs and cats
• Action on high strength, low cost alcohol
• Set maximum permitted levels of sugar, salt and fat in children's food
• End marriage tax allowance
• Establish a "people-led constitutional convention" to look at governance across the UK
• Replace the House of Lords with a senate of nations and regions
• Devolve £30bn of resources and powers to English cities and counties
• Fulfil pledges to devolve further powers to Scotland and Wales
• Give more power to local communities to "shape their high street"
• Ban MPs from holding paid directorships and consultancies
• Create a statutory register of lobbyists
• Require large companies to publish details of their gender pay gap
• Reform the EU so it "works for Britain"
• Allow no further transfer of powers to Brussels without a referendum
• Hold a Strategic Defence and Security Review in the first year of the next parliament
• Appoint a Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender envoy and global envoy for religious freedom
• Outlaw discrimination against Armed Forces members
• Push for a target of net zero global emissions in the second half of this century
• Enshrine the Military Covenant in the NHS constitution
• Establish a Centre for Universal Health Coverage to provide global support to help countries provide free healthcare

 

[SuperStu]

I expected there to be differences as you mention, but I'll have to go and hunt down 2015 and 2019 and see how they compare.

1997 was the last time they broke away from the Tory strangle hold, so can understand why that may have been more centrist, and we may need to do similar now to get power back, albeit probably not to anywhere near the same lengths.

Did you even read my post? Or just what you wanted it to say? The 1997 manifesto was not in my opinion centrist. It had multiple constitutional changes. I do not expect the next Labour manifesto to be anything like as bold as 1997, 2017 or 2019.

 

[Andy_W]

Don't discount a tory-LD coalition. The LDs have already paid the political cost of working with the tories. They'd have less reason now to avoid coalition than they did in 2010.

Anyone who's support the Lib Dems lose by working with tories is already long gone. They've been gone since 2015.

I just think a Labour coalition would be more likely, or not needed at all. I'd rather take the chance of Tories ditching to LD, than not ditching etc, albeit that might change the direction of LD. LD would then end up and a similar predicament to Labour now though, and lose votes on the other end to Labour.

A lot of LD voters felt like they had their vote stolen when they teamed up with the Tories, they won't want that to happen again.

 

[Andy_W]

Did you even read my post? Or just what you wanted it to say? The 1997 manifesto was not in my opinion centrist. It had multiple constitutional changes. I do not expect the next Labour manifesto to be anything like as bold as 1997, 2017 or 2019.

Ah sorry, misread it People will have had enough of the Tories by then, same as is happening now!

 

[SuperStu]

A lot of LD voters felt like they had their vote stolen when they teamed up with the Tories, they won't want that to happen again

That's my point though. Those people haven't been Lib Dem voters since. The people who are Lib Dem voters now are the ones who weren't put off by the coalition.

 

[WeeGord]

Don't discount a tory-LD coalition. The LDs have already paid the political cost of working with the tories. They'd have less reason now to avoid coalition than they did in 2010.

Anyone who's support the Lib Dems lose by working with tories is already long gone. They've been gone since 2015.

I disagree for a number of reasons; firstly the Lib Dems are having a bit of a resurgence and have taken some pretty safe Tory seats in recent by-elections and won back a load of seats at the locals too.

In addition there is a concerted 'anybody but Tory' campaign happening hence why Lib Dems are lending their votes to Labour where it will get the Tories out and vice versa. The Lib Dem's who voted tactically to remove the Tories in a GE would be very, very distraught at the idea of the Lib Dems going back into a coalition with the Tories. I think it would actually destroy them as they would never be able to be trusted again.

If anything I think if a GE led to a hung parliament with Labour the biggest party, as seems likely currently, the Lib Dems may enter a coalition with Labour but would more likely just be willing to support Labour in a minority government to get legislation through. They would then have some power in terms of Labour having to compromise more sympathtically towards a Lib Dem take on policy.

 

[WeeGord]

That's my point though. Those people haven't been Lib Dem voters since. The people who are Lib Dem voters now are the ones who weren't put off by the coalition.

That can't be true as their level of support plummeted during and after the coalition; if they've had the same level of support they've shown in recent by-elections and local elections their support during those times wouldn't have gond through the floor as they did.

 

[Andy_W]

That's my point though. Those people haven't been Lib Dem voters since. The people who are Lib Dem voters now are the ones who weren't put off by the coalition.

I'm not so sure, but don't live in a seat where LD have a chance, might be a bit different for the ones that do. I think LD lost some, then gained others back, or lost some and then gained them same ones back with the vote lending. I don't think all that many of them were happy to side with the Tories as most seats they win their nearest challenger is Tory isn't it?

There's plenty of people switching sides just to end the Tories, doesn't make sense for LD to then join the Tories, not again anyway.

I'm not sure what they're doing now, but LD have/ had been backing remain/ re-join for a while, can't see the ex labour voters who ditched labour to join cons for Brexit, then leaving the Tories to join LD, they would more likely just not vote or go back to labour. This only really largely leaves only Remainers and staunch LD's in LD, which means they would be unlikely to want them to join up with the Tories, the party of hardcore brexit.

LD will know that they're winning seats only due to Labour vote lending, and through gaining people from Tories, who both would seemingly want anything but Tory. Once bitten twice shy I think, just don't see them teaming up again.

 

[Lefty]

The Lib Dems won’t ever form a coalition with the Tories again. They probably won’t form a formal one with anyone ever again.

They are clearly prepared to come to some sort of informal arrangement with Labour at the moment and that will no doubt continue until the Tories are removed. That is especially likely if electoral reform is the prize.

 

[SuperStu]

The Lib Dems won’t ever form a coalition with the Tories again. They probably won’t form a formal one with anyone ever again.

Never say never. Whats the point of getting electoral reform to PR, a system that makes coalition governments much more likely, if your party are swearing off ever being part of a coalition ever again?