The end?

Fattyfoggon said:
I really hope so but I think it is impossible to predict and no offence but he had been way off previously with his predictions it still feels like it could last for years :(
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Especially for you folks: some alternative scenarios.

"Russia at the start of the war had a superpowers worth of junk, far more than for instance Germany, Italy and Japan had during WWII.
I would say that Ukraine and the western aid has been amazingly fast at ripping the Russian stockpile into steaming piles of dung.

This means that by now we can calculate with a fair degree of certainty when Russia will run out of equipment to such a degree that they no longer have a viable army, and are de facto demilitarised.
Because, in this war it is not enough to win, you also need to make certain that there will not be a third part of this tragic war in a few years.
Russia can't be allowed to be a threat for decades to come.

Now we can talk scenarios, and I will take them one at a time.
There are 4 main scenarios.

First Scenario - Russia Go Home
This is in my view the least likely scenario.
This entails that Russia one day says, sod it we are going home.
I do not think this is likely since there is no advantage for Russia, nor its leadership in it.
Nor is Ukraine and the West willing to give any incentives for Russia and Putin to do this, because the risk is just to high that there will be a new war in a while.
Also, to be frank, Putin seems way to stubborn and hellbent into removing every single Ukrainian from the face of the Earth to give up willingly.
The risk of this happening is though slowly increasing since Russia is fairing so badly.
In here is also counted a standard coup, whereupon a similar government take over the power and cut the war off.
This is no true improvement, and is not desireable by anyone since it would just give a new revanchistic government that would probably do the preparations better, and then return to restart the war.

Scenario Two - Russian Prolapse
This is the scenario where Russia either breaks up into smaller republic, or a general civil war breaks out, or both of them at the same time.
This is now a more reasonable scenario, and there are contingency plans in place to befriend and help any new countries forming to stabilise.
There are also contingency plans to take control of nukes etcetera involving several powerblocks and powers.
This is a much favoured scenario over scenario 1.

Scenario Three - Ukrainian Liberation
We can now set a definite date for when this will happen based upon the attrition rate of the Russian Junk Stockpile.
In November of 2024 Russia will have run out of air defence systems, armoured vehicles, tanks and artillery.
At this point Russia is no longer able to perform a war.

Obviously the Russian army will start to crumble and leave areas of occupied Ukraine prior to that date, but it is the definitive date when Russia will be ousted with a kick in the butt.
At this point the war is militarily won.

This is the point where any sane country would sign a peacedeal and go home to cry into their collective pillows.
By this point it is likely that a coup has occured, or civil war has broken out, and that Russia sign any deal.

That Scenario Three will happen is a certainty by this point unless Russia uses a significant portion of its nuclear arsenal on Ukraine, and that is highly unlikely.

There is though one nagging niggling perfidling thing that is putting a hamper into this happy occurance and the onset of eternal peace, and that gives this scenario...

Scenario Four - The Continuation War
In this scenario Putin, or something like him, remain in power, after the loss of the army in Ukraine.
He or it refuses to sign any peace deal, and the war continues of sorts.
Like a giggling madman Russia continues to send a couple of missiles and a few drones into Ukraine each weak.

In a lightning strike Ukrainian armoured columns roar into the defenceless republics of Bilhorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh.
Several columns roar onward up the motorways via Oryol, Kaluga and Ryazan.
Total 500 000 Ukrainian soldiers armed to the teeth with modern western weapons easily crushes any resistance on the way, not that there is much for Russia to defend itself.
Early in the morning on the second day an armoured column races down Kutuzovkyy Prospekt with huge blue and yellow flags streaming in the air to take control of the bombed out Kremlin.

A few hours later a few screaming Putins are dragged out and made to kneel in snowslush to sign the articles of surrender infront of 100s of video cameras with The Hoff singing "Looking for Freedom" in the background.

How weirdly now this may sound, I think it will end up at this point.
Russians are to much sheep to even attempt to overthrow Putin, to much sheep to start a civil war, to much sheep to break away, and to stupid to stop fighting even after having lost the war.

I am almost certain it will end up with Moscow celebrating Christmas 2024 under blue-yellow Ukrainian flags and EU-flags.
And the Russians will not ask for democracy, instead they will just bend their necks and accept their new overlords, same as any Russian has done down the centuries.

My point
At this point Russia choses how much pain they want to receive, and how far up the unlubed Dildo of Consequences will go.
From here on it is a mathematical decline into collapse."

I should add that both he and I hope that there is some unexpected capitulation long before next autumn but, contrary to the prevailing view of his outlook, he is pessimistic. The reason for this is that the Russian leadership has shown no inclination to cut their losses in the face of military defeat, which has been staring them in the face since they were routed in Kharkiv. Any rational government and military leadership would have read the writing on the wall and tried to find a peaceful end ... but they just threw more bodies at the problem.
 
Be good to see a replay of September 1917 Germany, when the Imperial Russian army ceased to exist. Just turned around went home and used their rifles in the revolution.
 
From Anthony Beevor's book "Russian Civil War" - when Kerensky's Russian Government collapsed in late 1917 - the Russian Bolsheviks signed a peace agreement with Germany. The German Army moved into the Ukraine and occupied Kiev until November 11th 1918. Basically they stole the grain and other food stuffs and shipped it to Germany, where the civilian population were starving, after 3.5 years of a Royal Navy blockade of German ports.

Some of the Imperial Russian Army formed a White Army - certainly the officers did. With the help of Britain, France, USA and Japan forces in 1919 they tried to militarily over throw the "Reds" and retake the whole of Russia and reinstate the Czar. Hence on war memorials in this country it often says 1914-19 war not 1914-18.

Ref current conflict in the Ukraine region I don't think it will be resolved by military actions alone. Neither side looks like sitting down and negotiating. I think this is going to be a long thread. Putin wants to be seen as a war leader, a tough man etc and that usually work well with Russians, so he is not keen to talk. On the other side, the Ukraine leader Zelenskyy wants 100% control of the national boundaries set in 1990, when the Russian Federation was at its weakest/just formed and was facing a civil war with its own Army. Zelenskyy also doesn't seem to accept there are some people, particularly in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea who don't want to be part of political and military alliance with countries such as the USA and Germany. We had similar issues in Ireland in 1921 i.e the majority of Ireland wanted to be independent of the UK, but not a minority, living in the North of Ireland.
 
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MoggasDog said:
I have been riveted by this post, as clearly lots of others are , too.
We are reading what is a naturally biased account from somebody actioned stationed at the business end of things for Ukraine.
What worries me, when considering the general reporting, is that this is going to be a war that just goes on and on. Ukraine could be in ruins - a lot of the eastern towns and villages are clearly already ruined.
Are NATO just allowing this war to keep running because they know it is depleting Russia's resources hour by hour, day by day?
Most importantly, just how many people are going to be slaughtered - Ukrainian and Russian?
Look at the human costs of recent wars in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, north Africa.

It seems to be globally agreed that this whole situation was a result of stupid, old soviet ideals and Russian nationalism thinking that Ukraine is supposed to be part of Russia. If the feeling of Nationalism is so strong as to start this invasion, how can it be stopped? What are the limits Russia is willing to go to? If, as is being reported in these posts, Russia is slowly being forced back, wouldnt there come a point when Putin/Shoigu think they might retreat and drop tactical nukes on the advancing Ukrainian forces? As egotistical and psychotic as Putins and his people are - would they not prefer to push the button rather than face the humiliation of defeat? The rumoured russian internal coups have only gone as far as two days of Wagner driving towards moscow and we know how that ended.
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Very good point, this great tweet (are they still tweets?) explains why Putin would prefer a forever war. He’ll just close the iron curtain again and be lord of all he surveys. It’s a bit long, but a great read……

Illia Ponomarenko
@IAPonomarenko
"Can you give up any part of Ukraine for peace?"
Very seriously one of the silliest and the most childish questions one can ask nowadays.
And not just because it simply puts us in a world where a sovereign nation, a target of large-scale military aggression and the biggest war of conquest since WWII, is being pressured into the betrayal of a huge part of its own territory and people "for the sake of peace", and that is being done as some perverted form of high moral ground.
And not just because it puts us in a world where any warmongering regime, especially those having the bomb or moving towards having one, is officially encouraged and welcome to extort everything and anything they want, "or else!"
It's a world in which high-minded pseudo-intellectuals think the freedom and independence of a 40-million nation are somewhat of lesser value than their beloved fear of "nuclear escalation" they have licked all over for years.
It's silly because such a naive approach just doesn't work.
No, you won't "give peace a chance" by just forcing Ukraine into giving up of 20% of its territory (or 10%, or 50%, or 80%, whatever).
Maybe we should give up Florida to Vladimir V. Putin of Russia "for the sake of peace?" Or maybe the Lake Como area?
No? Why not?
In the lore of today's Kremlin propaganda, the current war in Ukraine is not about just Ukraine but the entire West, America & NATO (oh yeah, they're too chauvinistic to be losing the war to those dirty khokhols alone).
Of course, it's extremely naive to think that giving Putin Zaporizhia or Dnipro for now would somehow make him stop. (I think once upon a time there was a guy with whom a similar thing didn't work out).
Because it's not a lawsuit in which a rancho owner next door disputes your legal ownership over a patch of land between your households.
Putin & his cronies don't give a **** about Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Kyiv, Bakmut/Mariupol you name it. Territorial grabs are nothing but just an instrument.
HE NEEDS WAR AS SUCH.
He needs never-ending confrontation, international isolation, the besieged fortress of mother Russia, hatred, division, Cold War 2.0, and the state of 10 seconds to midnight forevermore.
If things had been as planned on February 24, with Ukraine crushed and Kyiv taken within 3 days, it would have been a brilliant triumph.
The vast majority of the Russian population would have been ecstatic about the new conquest. But similarly to the Crimea effect of 2014, the euphoria would evaporate before too long.
The Crimean appeasement morphed into a bloodletting war of Donbas. The West's desire to put its head in the sand via the Minsk Accords ended up being February 24, 2022.
Who would have been next soon if things went as planned those days?
THE KREMLIN CAN'T CARRY ON WITHOUT IGNITING NEW WARS AGAIN AND AGAIN.
Yet another attempt to twist Ukraine's hands into a "concession for the sake of peace" will again result in nothing but a short respite -- and then an even more catastrophic war.
If you seriously think this war can be ended by just giving Putin what he wants AGAIN, I can only suggest that you try to grow up and see some real life.
KREMLIN WARS WILL NOT STOP UNTIL WE STOP THE KREMLIN.
But if you seriously ask things like "Can you give up any part of Ukraine for peace?" knowing what really stands behind that -- you could just have some guts to admit that you don't care about "peace" and you just need to get rid of this annoying problem for now and keep comfortably feeding the crocodile hoping that it will eat you last.
 
Its useful to check sources of information and their political affilatations. I know its not easy, because everybody is manipulated and we do get a lot of propaganda in this country and we don't thing we do.

I tend to not trust both Russian Nationalists and Ukrainian Nationalists.

In Ireland (which we are familiar with) that would be Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams.
 
borolad259 said:
Those towns already gone. The General Staff are no longer issuing orders. Apparently troops are now starting to leave Donetsk and Luhansk.
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This is not a criticism of the post, but it's just so sad that over a year later it doesn't seem like the end of this war is imminent
Was hoping those reports came to fruition shortly afterwards at the time
Let's hope the dictator's army are booted out as soon as possible to stop the killing
 
TeessideCleveland said:
This is not a criticism of the post, but it's just so sad that over a year later it doesn't seem like the end of this war is imminent
Was hoping those reports came to fruition shortly afterwards at the time
Let's hope the dictator's army are booted out as soon as possible to stop the killing
Click to expand...

Was that about the time they put Surovikin in charge? I can't remember now.
 
Anyway, my mate is quietly chuffed today. The Admiral in charge of sending missiles into Odessa (threatening his new des res) is now a goner. "Admiral Viktor Sokolev, Chief of Black Sea Fleet is confirmed to be dead.". He was targeted at the reserve command post yesterday. I think my mate took personal satisfaction for that one. He also ordered the sneakifying of the main command in Sevastopol.
 
borolad259 said:
Especially for you folks: some alternative scenarios.

"Russia at the start of the war had a superpowers worth of junk, far more than for instance Germany, Italy and Japan had during WWII.
I would say that Ukraine and the western aid has been amazingly fast at ripping the Russian stockpile into steaming piles of dung.

This means that by now we can calculate with a fair degree of certainty when Russia will run out of equipment to such a degree that they no longer have a viable army, and are de facto demilitarised.
Because, in this war it is not enough to win, you also need to make certain that there will not be a third part of this tragic war in a few years.
Russia can't be allowed to be a threat for decades to come.

Now we can talk scenarios, and I will take them one at a time.
There are 4 main scenarios.

First Scenario - Russia Go Home
This is in my view the least likely scenario.
This entails that Russia one day says, sod it we are going home.
I do not think this is likely since there is no advantage for Russia, nor its leadership in it.
Nor is Ukraine and the West willing to give any incentives for Russia and Putin to do this, because the risk is just to high that there will be a new war in a while.
Also, to be frank, Putin seems way to stubborn and hellbent into removing every single Ukrainian from the face of the Earth to give up willingly.
The risk of this happening is though slowly increasing since Russia is fairing so badly.
In here is also counted a standard coup, whereupon a similar government take over the power and cut the war off.
This is no true improvement, and is not desireable by anyone since it would just give a new revanchistic government that would probably do the preparations better, and then return to restart the war.

Scenario Two - Russian Prolapse
This is the scenario where Russia either breaks up into smaller republic, or a general civil war breaks out, or both of them at the same time.
This is now a more reasonable scenario, and there are contingency plans in place to befriend and help any new countries forming to stabilise.
There are also contingency plans to take control of nukes etcetera involving several powerblocks and powers.
This is a much favoured scenario over scenario 1.

Scenario Three - Ukrainian Liberation
We can now set a definite date for when this will happen based upon the attrition rate of the Russian Junk Stockpile.
In November of 2024 Russia will have run out of air defence systems, armoured vehicles, tanks and artillery.
At this point Russia is no longer able to perform a war.

Obviously the Russian army will start to crumble and leave areas of occupied Ukraine prior to that date, but it is the definitive date when Russia will be ousted with a kick in the butt.
At this point the war is militarily won.

This is the point where any sane country would sign a peacedeal and go home to cry into their collective pillows.
By this point it is likely that a coup has occured, or civil war has broken out, and that Russia sign any deal.

That Scenario Three will happen is a certainty by this point unless Russia uses a significant portion of its nuclear arsenal on Ukraine, and that is highly unlikely.

There is though one nagging niggling perfidling thing that is putting a hamper into this happy occurance and the onset of eternal peace, and that gives this scenario...

Scenario Four - The Continuation War
In this scenario Putin, or something like him, remain in power, after the loss of the army in Ukraine.
He or it refuses to sign any peace deal, and the war continues of sorts.
Like a giggling madman Russia continues to send a couple of missiles and a few drones into Ukraine each weak.

In a lightning strike Ukrainian armoured columns roar into the defenceless republics of Bilhorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh.
Several columns roar onward up the motorways via Oryol, Kaluga and Ryazan.
Total 500 000 Ukrainian soldiers armed to the teeth with modern western weapons easily crushes any resistance on the way, not that there is much for Russia to defend itself.
Early in the morning on the second day an armoured column races down Kutuzovkyy Prospekt with huge blue and yellow flags streaming in the air to take control of the bombed out Kremlin.

A few hours later a few screaming Putins are dragged out and made to kneel in snowslush to sign the articles of surrender infront of 100s of video cameras with The Hoff singing "Looking for Freedom" in the background.

How weirdly now this may sound, I think it will end up at this point.
Russians are to much sheep to even attempt to overthrow Putin, to much sheep to start a civil war, to much sheep to break away, and to stupid to stop fighting even after having lost the war.

I am almost certain it will end up with Moscow celebrating Christmas 2024 under blue-yellow Ukrainian flags and EU-flags.
And the Russians will not ask for democracy, instead they will just bend their necks and accept their new overlords, same as any Russian has done down the centuries.

My point
At this point Russia choses how much pain they want to receive, and how far up the unlubed Dildo of Consequences will go.
From here on it is a mathematical decline into collapse."

I should add that both he and I hope that there is some unexpected capitulation long before next autumn but, contrary to the prevailing view of his outlook, he is pessimistic. The reason for this is that the Russian leadership has shown no inclination to cut their losses in the face of military defeat, which has been staring them in the face since they were routed in Kharkiv. Any rational government and military leadership would have read the writing on the wall and tried to find a peaceful end ... but they just threw more bodies at the problem.
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Your mate has said many times Russia is running out of missiles and junk and everything in between.

Your mate said the war would be over before Christmas, He said it would be over before March, he said it would definitely be done after the 'spring' offensive.

Everyone else including Zelenski says different.

Meanwhile your mate fantasizes about lighting trips to Moscow, Yellow and Blue flags in the capital by Christmas 2024, the world would be on fire before that would ever come close to happening, yet he's advocating it
 
alvez_49 said:
Your mate has said many times Russia is running out of missiles and junk and everything in between.

Your mate said the war would be over before Christmas, He said it would be over before March, he said it would definitely be done after the 'spring' offensive.

Everyone else including Zelenski says different.

Meanwhile your mate fantasizes about lighting trips to Moscow, Yellow and Blue flags in the capital by Christmas 2024, the world would be on fire before that would ever come close to happening, yet he's advocating
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Well, taking each point separately, they clearly are running out of missiles. They fire very few now compared with a year ago. They also ran out of AD missiles in Crimea, so the various devastating attacks on airfields and command centres could happen.

He said it would be over by Christmas, because he was thinking in conventional military terms. He hadn't banked on Russia's desire to continue genocide against Ukraine and its own people beyond the point that it was "winning" militarily. Russia started losing way before that Christmas deadline, but he had the gumption to say "mia culpa" or whatever.

What you call a fantasy about trips to Moscow is actually something else. Wanna tell us any more about your wealth of military knowledge and experience? I mean, I know b***r all, but the more knowledgeable people on this board in that regard seem to think he talks sense most of the time.
 
Decent_Left said:
Forgive this response as its not meant to come across as snippy but what I would say is


Some of - The West, tragically, will move on

Poland has had enough - During a general election campaign when a populist party has to shore up votes on a populist issue directly impacting Ukraine

What will happen in the states - By the time a bad thing may happen at the end of 24, the US will have become less important to Ukraine than othe rmajor parties anyway as is happening right now. The US dithering over ATACMS and actually delivering M1's are hopefully the last hurdles to overcome in terms of what they can offer then Ukraine can stop expending energy in that direction and focus on reliable European partners.

Putin - Ruzzia when it gets kicked out of Ukraine wont be the same as when it invaded and Putin is a lot less bomb proof than he was.

The impact of Breakthroughs are definately happening its not just about the ownership of territory thats a day to day measure of success although they are now happening as well. If you want territory gains consider the Western Black Sea as liberated. The degradation of Ruzzian forces is incrementally increasing. The evidence of the impact of the massive air attack on Crimea 2 nights ago are starting to emerge - devastating and opening more future possibility. Definately breakthroughs.

Yes, it is tragic
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Thank you for taking the time for that, well considered.
 
alvez_49 said:
Your mate has said many times Russia is running out of missiles and junk and everything in between.

Your mate said the war would be over before Christmas, He said it would be over before March, he said it would definitely be done after the 'spring' offensive.

Everyone else including Zelenski says different.

Meanwhile your mate fantasizes about lighting trips to Moscow, Yellow and Blue flags in the capital by Christmas 2024, the world would be on fire before that would ever come close to happening, yet he's advocating it
Click to expand...
Why do you continue to read the thread if it upsets you so much?
 
TeessideCleveland said:
It was when there was unrest in the Duma in Moscow on page 1 of this thread
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Ah yes, quite a lot did change around then. Maybe not to the anticipated extent. Also, worth bearing in mind that, at that time, he was quite far removed from events on the ground and working with intelligence teams. So when he says something like "troops are leaving x or y" it's usually true at the time and is information gained from audio intercepts and intel reports. It doesn't of course mean that all troops leave. I suppose you always have to bear in mind that getting clear information from Russia is a difficult job given 1) lying and obfuscation 2) different factions disseminating their own version of the truth. I do know one thing, that the general trend predicted back then has actually happened, just more slowly than we all hoped for.
 
Some stuff.

"Now time to take a walk through the frontline.
It starts off in a very logical place.

Vietnam
One of my greatest tenaments in life is that the Universe is truly an Ironic place, and that irony is written in somehow into the fabric of the Universe.

The news that Vietnam is entering the West is probably totally perplexing for most.
I am a bit less surprised due to my previous civilian life that this is happening.
I used to trade with cashew nuts, spices and coffee from Vietnam, and I have been there.

It is in many aspects a very modern western country, but with a huge asian/vietnamese flair that they are very proud of.
And unlike most socialist (not communist) countries it is not repressive (at least by socialist standards).
They even have a sort of local democracy with townhall meetings deciding over things local, and the vietnamese are truly free to go wherever they wish, and pretty much do what they wish.
Also, unlike China and Russia anyone is free to become a party member as long as they have done military service and have not been convicted of a severe crime.
Obviously things are not perfect, but for being a socialist state with a capitalist economy... there are worse democracies really.

Vietnam for weird reasons was always the most open socialist country towards the west, and fought really hard to integrate themselves directly into the trade rules system, and hammered down any hint of corruption.
By now it is the most open country in the entire region, up to and including South Korea and Japan.
They are also good friends with both SK and Japan.

The process started with them opening up towards Europe and especially the EU, this gave them a huge trade access and a trade agreement.
Then as the years moved on slowly the relationship normalised with the US, I must give the US credit here, and about 15 years ago open and friendly relations between the US and Vietnam was in place.
And this West/Vietnam relations continued.

The Vietnamese see China's (and Soviet's) communist parties as cancer growths on real socialism, and their relation with both of them is pretty "complex", and have deteriorated over time.
And, now that China want to steal parts of their waters from them, and is truly treating them as a vassal-state the relations are at a bottom low.
With low, I mean almost totally non-existant.

Vietnam is an insanely strong military power, problem is that they have older Soviet and Chinese weapons systems that are beginning to be worn out.
With an ever more beligerent China the US and the West needed a strong ally in the region, and whatever could be better than the country that beat the living schnabel out of the US itself?

Vietnam is now living under the threat of being attacked by China, and is about to end up in a naval war that they can't win, and to top it off they are about to lose their oceanic trade routes.
And they looked over at Ukraine and saw what was happening there, and drew the conclusion that they are probably next after Taiwan now that it is modern again to attack neighbours.

So, the US was sitting pondering how to approach Vietnam and invite them, and the Vietnamese was thinking the same...
In the end Ban-ki Moon of all people arranged a date.
It all resulted in Vietnam quietly joining the Western alliance and signed some rather spectacular arms purchase contracts to enable them to Switch over to NATO-compatible equipment.
Que Sad Xi Noises.

Xi made huge mistakes by ******* off every single neighbour, and is by now outgunned by it's angry neighbours, and the strongest by far is Vietnam with its honking 5 million men standing army (including paramilitary units and security forces).
If I was Xi I would be very worried about having a million well trained Vietnamese well equipped soldiers going straight up into the industrial and agricultural heartland of China.

This is a true tectonic shift in world relalations, and a very ironic one at that.

BaKhmut
Here the name of the game currently is to grind the newly arrived reinforcements, yes Russia finally sent some.
We actually was worried there for a while that they would not since the goal is to grind them up, and slowly advance.
Grinding is more important than anything now.

Bakhmut is now suffering due to the loss of the T0513 highway, and more areas will soon fall into Ukrainian hands due to this.

Vuhledar
Same slow grinding here of new fresh Russian reinforcements.
We have noticed quite a drop in equipment numbers here.
Basically they are now holding on with soldiers without heavy equipment, and very little artillery.

In the end Russia will once again run out of Mobiks here, or we grow tired of it and go over anyway, we need that road before Rasputitsa.

Tokmak Axis
The salient has been widened with a few square kilometres in the EW directions, this is done to prevent any effects of the Russian counter-offensives on logistics more than anything.
A small push southwards in between Novoprokopivka and Verbove was done that transfered control of the road between these villages to Ukraine.
This will increase the speed with which Ukraine can clear the trenches between the two villages.

Both villages are now being ground down while Ukraine forces are slowly entering the villages.
But, as always Russia is pushing in fresh forces from the other end so going is slow.
I do though expect both villages to fall within two weeks.

Kherson
Preparations here are still ongoing, that is all I can say for now.

Crimea
Here to preparations are ongoing for the winter offensive.
The current number of higher officers that got killed in the twin Navy Command strikes have now increased to 34 killed and injured ranking officers.
Ouch.

Mobificationing
The silly season has now officially started as everyone is trying to guess how many Russians will be mobified.
It is clear that Russia must mobify more meat-targets, the question is more how many new meat-targets there will be.

The guesses range from 300 000 up to 1 000 000.
My guess is that the lower number will be closer to what will happen than the higher more hysterical number.
Currently Russia is mobilising around 20 000 people per month, a number that is not sufficient to keap up with casualty numbers (45 000).

I think the 20 000 is about what they can manage right now, they might though try to increase that to a steady 40 000 per month.
I think even this would stretch the Russians to hard in terms of producing uniforms and finding small arms to give them, they are already struggling with this quite a bit as it is.

But, from a purely manpower standpoint 1 000 000 is possible if you forego weapons and uniforms.
And with Russia being insane it could happen.

Sadly for the mobiks it does not matter, without more heavy equipment it just means that more Russians will die in meatwave attacks for nothing.

Artillery systems
As we counted the artillery systems of Russia we used satelite images for Ukraine, the known numbers destroyed, and satelite images to count what remained in those huge field storages.

This way we could count how much remained in use and in inventory, and the number is pretty exact with no more than +/- 5 percent surety.

What we did though not know obviously was the condition that the weapons are in, no satelite outside of Hollywood can see that.
So, a bright american got it into his head to go and check this out for himself, and somehow got a "something" approved for use.
I truly do not know what this was, but it must have been something rather special.

Because to see the condition of said artillery systems you need to fly over them during daytime at a height conducive for seeing rather fine details.
Anyway, a few storages was picked for a visit, and the images returned in nice fine detail.

And the collective western jaw dropped.
More than half of what remain in Russian inventory are parts hulks, and all of those parts hulks lack the barrel.
At one field 80 percent of the 152mm self-propelled armoured artillery systems remained, but none of them had a barrel.
Seeing 82 expensive tracked units of their best artillery system standing hulked in a field without their barrels is just out there.
Each of them cost around 2 million USD, and they are now useless.

Even weirder, those 82 seemed to be in very good working order, freshly painted and all.
It was like they had been prepared for being sent to the front for use in the war, but instead they ripped out the barrels of almost unusued units instead of sending the entire "mint" condition system to Ukraine to replace a worn out one.

The most likely reason for this strange behaviour is to have less weight to haul into Ukraine, a barrel is significantly lighter and volume-economic compared to a 36 ton behemoth.
You need 4 train cars to haul 82 barrels, instead of 82 to haul the entire shebang.

The Soviet Union had one spare barrel per artillery system stored together with the unit.
There was on top of that a strategic storage of thousands of barrels at Nizhni-Tagil, and if that was not enough they could produce about 1000 barrels a month.

Theoretically there was 15 000 installed barrels, and a further 25 000 barrels in reserve as the war broke out.
Let us say that 10 000 of those spare barrels had been used, or sold, during the intervening years.
During Soviet times there would by now have been a further 18 000 barrels produced to take up the slack.

So, how many barrels are the Russians producing?
Silch, zero and de nada.
Production was halted in 1996, and the factory never reopened.
The number of spare barrels was enough for Russia since they only produced around 10 artillery systems per year.

I find the numbers just mindboggling.
And I honestly find it even more mindboggling that they have run through that many barrels and had to even scrap fully functional units to feed the insanity in Ukraine.

How in the name of heck could they waste that much equipment, we are after all talking about a significant portion of the entire cold war production of the Soviet Union?
Because this would in a normal military use have been more than enough, but instead they used most of it to kill civilians, blow up toilets, kindergartens, childrens hospitals, and childrens playground, and the bus stops.

This is not a war, this is insanity.
Anyway, this probably means that the numbers before "artillery prolapse" will be adjusted down somewhat, how much depends on when Russia got the last and final batch of barrels delivered.
After all, they are firing much less now due to shell hunger, so the barrels will last far longer now.

Fuel
Russia has banned all export of fuel products.
Seeing the worlds largest gas station stop selling fuel is a sign of how bad things are now.
Russia truly needed that cash, but if nothing was done Russia would stop due to fuel shortage.
I think Ukraine would do well to take out a couple more of the refineries so that Russia continues to have a fuel shortage.

Conclusion
The lack of equipment will probably influence the number that is mobiked.
Because the sad reality is that Russia has a final huge store of weapons systems.
And that is Mobik 101 with a simple rifle and a few cartridges.

Russia is not a superpower, not that it ever war really, it was after all not the same as the Soviet Union.
Russia is no longer a global power with global reach.
Russia is no longer a regional power with global reach.
Russia is now a local power, but still retaining a global reach.
Russia will next be a hoard milling about being killed.
This is just a logical conclusion.

But, what scares me is that they seem to be willing to sacrifice even their final resource and self-immolate Russia out of history."

then later

."Judging from Lavrov's speech before the UN General Assembly there is a shift going on in the Russian position.
Russias previous position was give us 5 Oblasts and install a puppet government and we might go home.
That later became give us 5 Oblasts and Zelenzkyy and we will go home.
Now it seems to have shrunk to "No NATO and we will go home from it all".

Obviously nobody sane will believe that, but it is an interesting change in the rhetoric of Russia.
And, as a hook for starting negotiations it is probably the meekest position that Russia has ever taken prior to a negotiation.

Obviously Russia knows by now that it is losing the war.
They have known that for at least 3 months now, even up on high.
But, up until now they hoped for a miracle.
China, North Korea, someone else, or even holding out until Trump.
But, now they know that nobody is coming, and the slim chance of Trump saving them would happen to late to make any difference whatsoever, because by then they have lost.

What specifically changed things in their logheads?
Two things I think.
Crimea being mulched is one, they finally realised that they will not be able to hold on to their most priced asset.
Ukraine is now very near to being able to storm it, and the Russians know this very well.

The second part is mostly overlooked in the West.
And that is that Azerbaijan openly attacked the Russian peacekeepers and killed many of them, then chased the rest of them away without allowing them to keep their equipment even.

I think that the last thing was the worst for them.
It is one thing losing a war against Ukraine with the full backing of the west, a completely different thing having a fly speck former Soviet Republic **** them right in the face by killing Russian soldiers in cold blod.
Russia has completely lost the control of their backyard, and that stung.

Sevastopol
Russia has declared that they will not be able to increase the amount of air defence in Sevastopol "within a month".
That is Russia speak for, "it will not happen".
They then declared that they will not be able to open shelters for the citizens in Sevastopol, instead they ordered them to open the basements and make their own shelters and use that instead.

Basically, they just said that they will do crap all to protect the Sevastopolians.

There is though a huge difference between saying in Russia speak, "We have no more air defence to send", and hauling out the two last S-400 systems out of Crimea.
I bet the Sevastopolians are mightily impressed with Moscow now that those two systems are moving out.
One was in Sevastopol guarding the Naval Base, the other one was guarding the Western side of the Kersh Bridge.

Yup, you read that right, they are moving them out.
I wonder if they will go for Sochii, Moscow or Mount Yamantau?
Thoughts...
Or more like guesses.
Russia stopped sending in new air defence units a few weeks ago into Ukraine.
But, it is a huge difference indeed between having to do hard choices when resources are scarce, and trying to conserve said resources by removing them back to safety.

The first thing means you are in deep ****, the second points towards preparations to give up.
Why waste more insanely expensive resources if you are going home anyway?

With them goes the radar systems, the airplanes are gone, the navy is packing up and leaving.
There are for obvious reasons not a lot of artillery and tanks in Crimea.

That I will keap a very close eye on in the next few days is if they start to remove Air Defence systems of the S-300 and S-400 type from Kherson and Zhaporizhzhia.
And, if they are starting to move out their T90/T72s, modern BMPs and Tracked Artillery.
The rest is just junk, so it would not be salvaged.

I think Russia is preparing a Goodwill Gesture.
This is a reasonable assumption since they are spread way to thin by now, and they well know that new systems are arriving that will make things much worse for them.

Also, they need to be able to at least not be attacked by their own backyard and to keap their own country in one piece.
They know that things will soon start to break as things are going.

If I am right, and I think I am, question is more how big the Goodwill will be.
Right now it looks like they are trying to do it in as orderly fashion as possible to conserve as much as they can of what remain, at least in regard of quality."
 
There have been a lot of updates, but not many that I could post. This, I can.


"Things are picking up pace again in many places around Ukraine.
So, let us debone those now that I can talk about it.

Kursk
The drone bombardment continued for the third day in a row.
Powerplants, civilian administration, and the military airfield was hit.
The City of Kursk and parts of the Oblast is now in darkness.

Previously the airfield was hit, first day was against the airplanes, second day was the fuel depot, and yesterday the barracks and officers quarters was targeted.
Russian sources are filled with condolences for officers and pilots that died.

During this period there was also intense border attacks and raids performed by the Free Russia Corps.
To inspire his fellow Kurskians the mayor of Kursk cancelled the "Kursk Day" and the fireworks show.
Que the Sad Kursk Noises.

Luhansk
Here Ukraine performed deep strikes at ammunition depots and command centers in the rear of Luhansk towards the Russian border.
This area was previously only reachable by Stormshadow missiles, but those are to pricey to use for lesser targets like this.
But, now the GLSDBs have arrived and the entire deep rear of Donbas is open for strikes.

Bakhmut
Ukraine sent in a heavy Brigade to reinforce south of Bakhmut to sustain the pace of the advance into the rear, and to force Russia to send in additional units.

Mar'inka
The 2nd Battalion of the 21st together with a company of tanks from the 2nd Tank Army Group met the Russians head on at Mari'nka and beat them back into the town border.
Almost a full kilometer of ground was gained and is now being demined.
In the Pavlivka direction we have increased the amount of shelling substantially.

Tokmak Axis
48 hours ago Oleksandr launched the artillery he had amassed near both Novoprokopivka and Verbove and started to methodically crush anything in the villages, behind the rolling wave of fire came infantry and heavy equipment clattering.

For weeks he had been bringing in reinforcements to take advantage of the not so small fact that Russia is not willing to reinforce enough to hold the line against a big push due to the "Putin Order".
This meant that the time was ripe to start collapsing the frontlines.

The goal is to rapidly take the villages and push down towards both Tokmak and Ocheretuvate in two weeks from now.
This is the big offensive that was announced a week ago by Zelenzkyy.
In support of this offensive we are also going to make a push to lock down as much force as we can on our part of the frontline, the same goes for Bakhmut and around Avdivka north of Donetsk City.

Conclusion
I am certain that either Russia will have the frontline broken, or at least be pushed back significantly, unless Russia moves significant forces from Luhansk.
If they do the latter something interesting will happen of course.

Note that this happened on the back of Ukraine receiving a significant new resource in form of the GLSDB.
Due to this Ukraine can strike deep in the rear and demolish stores and units on their entire travel to reinforce making the relief troops exhausted and degraded upon arrival.
Those extra 90km of a GLSDB compared to the GMLRS will make a huge difference in Russian manouvre space and in Russian logistics.
This will excarbate the Russian shell hunger further.

Shells
And this reminded me.
Ukraine blew up the factory producing explosives for their remaining shell production plant.
This meant that the factory did not receive any brisant charge high explosived to fill the shells.
Any normal person would at that point either stop producing shell casings, or continue production and store the casings for a rainy day or for when explosives production can resume.

But, Russia is not normal in any way, sort, or form.
They continued producing the shells, albeit empty.
They then delivered them with detonators and all to the frontline units.
There are many videos now of artillerymen complaining mightily on said empty shells.
I bet there is a new superyacht being ordered for the money that someone in Russia pocketed due to this scheme.

Some people wrote that the Russians should continue firing the empty shells since they would kill someone if they hit that someone.
Problem is that the shells are more prone to deform without the internal support, and could more easily get logged in the barrels.
On top of that the ballance is gone for the shell so it would tumble in the air, and the precission would just be utterly gone.
Only in Russia..."
 
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